← Market consensus

PoliticsActiveends Dec 31, 2026

Iran leadership change by December 31?

View on Polymarket ↗

Yes

23.5¢

No

76.5¢

Price history

No price · 0–100¢● smart-money trades

Smart money here · 8 tracked sharps

Contested

No 57%Yes 43%

9 shown · click a column to sort

Wallet	Side						Tier
0x8454…331a	No	$5.5k	51.8¢	27×	+14%	41%	Sharp
0x9ef5…5d4f	Yes	$4.4k	62.2¢	8.9×	+41%	53%	Sharp
0x0484…e0ee	Yes	$1.8k	32.8¢	11×	+67%	47%	Profitable
0xc254…3f73	No	$1.7k	70.0¢	6.7×	+10%	72%	Sharp
0x77c8…bc8c	No	$700	31.5¢	17×	+39%	16%	Sharp
0xa189…a2d5	No	$390	72.0¢	1.6×	+11%	69%	Sharp
0xc315…fe18	Yes	$162	32.3¢	1.9×	+32%	85%	Sharp
0x4e25…d7a7	Yes	$29	31.2¢	0.2×	+22%	60%	Sharp
0x4e25…d7a7	No	$1	61.0¢	0.0×	+22%	60%	Sharp

0x8454…331aSharp

No$5.5k @ 51.8¢

Conv: 27×
ROI: +14%
Win%: 41%

0x9ef5…5d4fSharp

Yes$4.4k @ 62.2¢

Conv: 8.9×
ROI: +41%
Win%: 53%

0x0484…e0eeProfitable

Yes$1.8k @ 32.8¢

Conv: 11×
ROI: +67%
Win%: 47%

0xc254…3f73Sharp

No$1.7k @ 70.0¢

Conv: 6.7×
ROI: +10%
Win%: 72%

0x77c8…bc8cSharp

No$700 @ 31.5¢

Conv: 17×
ROI: +39%
Win%: 16%

0xa189…a2d5Sharp

No$390 @ 72.0¢

Conv: 1.6×
ROI: +11%
Win%: 69%

0xc315…fe18Sharp

Yes$162 @ 32.3¢

Conv: 1.9×
ROI: +32%
Win%: 85%

0x4e25…d7a7Sharp

Yes$29 @ 31.2¢

Conv: 0.2×
ROI: +22%
Win%: 60%

0x4e25…d7a7Sharp

No$1 @ 61.0¢

Conv: 0.0×
ROI: +22%
Win%: 60%