Watch the smart money.
Sharp wallets on Polymarket — who has real, statistically-proven edge, where conviction concentrates, with ground-truth track records. Transparency, not tips.
Consensus track record · measured
When ≥1 tracked sharps backed an outcome it resolved their way 37% vs the 36% the price implied — a +0.8pp edge (n=100302).
95% confidence interval +0.5 to +1.1pp — statistically distinguishable from zero.
Ground-truth, captured at resolution — hit-rate alone misleads (smart money loads cheap longshots), so we measure edge over the implied price. We publish the interval, not just the point: the sample is young and growing, and we won't call it edge until the numbers earn it.
Top sharp wallets
View leaderboard →| Wallet | ROI | Win% | Brier | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfa39…977f | +1920% | 8% | 0.043 | 858 |
| 0xf5e8…9fbd | +1299% | 3% | 0.027 | 884 |
| 0x5738…cbb7 | +447% | 8% | 0.070 | 145 |
| 0x1c86…5b82 | +393% | 4% | 0.033 | 410 |
| 0x0d7e…cb13 | +367% | 13% | 0.058 | 1147 |
| 0xaed4…7f61 | +354% | 16% | 0.106 | 74 |
| 0xd51b…d959 | +342% | 20% | 0.142 | 97 |
| 0x51b2…10ce | +246% | 22% | 0.178 | 240 |
- ROI
- +1920%
- Win%
- 8%
- Brier
- 0.043
- Resolved
- 858
- ROI
- +1299%
- Win%
- 3%
- Brier
- 0.027
- Resolved
- 884
- ROI
- +447%
- Win%
- 8%
- Brier
- 0.070
- Resolved
- 145
- ROI
- +393%
- Win%
- 4%
- Brier
- 0.033
- Resolved
- 410
- ROI
- +367%
- Win%
- 13%
- Brier
- 0.058
- Resolved
- 1147
- ROI
- +354%
- Win%
- 16%
- Brier
- 0.106
- Resolved
- 74
- ROI
- +342%
- Win%
- 20%
- Brier
- 0.142
- Resolved
- 97
- ROI
- +246%
- Win%
- 22%
- Brier
- 0.178
- Resolved
- 240
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