Watch the smart money.
Sharp wallets on Polymarket — who has real, statistically-proven edge, where conviction concentrates, with ground-truth track records. Transparency, not tips.
Consensus track record · measured
When ≥1 tracked sharps backed an outcome it resolved their way 37% vs the 36% the price implied — a +1.0pp edge (n=109323).
95% confidence interval +0.8 to +1.3pp — statistically distinguishable from zero.
Ground-truth, captured at resolution — hit-rate alone misleads (smart money loads cheap longshots), so we measure edge over the implied price. We publish the interval, not just the point: the sample is young and growing, and we won't call it edge until the numbers earn it.
Top sharp wallets
View leaderboard →| Wallet | ROI | Win% | Brier | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5738…cbb7 | +483% | 6% | 0.055 | 185 |
| 0x34ea…3955 | +436% | 33% | 0.219 | 341 |
| 0x1c86…5b82 | +308% | 3% | 0.023 | 576 |
| 0x51b2…10ce | +250% | 23% | 0.182 | 240 |
| 0x5139…9402 | +172% | 18% | 0.177 | 298 |
| 0x152f…a549 | +159% | 18% | 0.132 | 168 |
| 0xa6cf…39e6 | +150% | 9% | 0.083 | 1190 |
| 0x3f21…3bce | +141% | 36% | 0.149 | 331 |
- ROI
- +483%
- Win%
- 6%
- Brier
- 0.055
- Resolved
- 185
- ROI
- +436%
- Win%
- 33%
- Brier
- 0.219
- Resolved
- 341
- ROI
- +308%
- Win%
- 3%
- Brier
- 0.023
- Resolved
- 576
- ROI
- +250%
- Win%
- 23%
- Brier
- 0.182
- Resolved
- 240
- ROI
- +172%
- Win%
- 18%
- Brier
- 0.177
- Resolved
- 298
- ROI
- +159%
- Win%
- 18%
- Brier
- 0.132
- Resolved
- 168
- ROI
- +150%
- Win%
- 9%
- Brier
- 0.083
- Resolved
- 1190
- ROI
- +141%
- Win%
- 36%
- Brier
- 0.149
- Resolved
- 331
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