Watch the smart money.

Consensus track record · measured

When ≥1 tracked sharps backed an outcome it resolved their way 39% vs the 38% the price implied — a +0.6pp edge (n=82025).

95% confidence interval +0.3 to +1.0pp — statistically distinguishable from zero.

Ground-truth, captured at resolution — hit-rate alone misleads (smart money loads cheap longshots), so we measure edge over the implied price. We publish the interval, not just the point: the sample is young and growing, and we won't call it edge until the numbers earn it.