Watch the smart money.
Sharp wallets on Polymarket — who has real, statistically-proven edge, where conviction concentrates, with ground-truth track records. Transparency, not tips.
Consensus track record · measured
When ≥1 tracked sharps backed an outcome it resolved their way 40% vs the 39% the price implied — a +1.4pp edge (n=982621).
95% confidence interval +1.3 to +1.5pp — statistically distinguishable from zero.
Ground-truth, captured at resolution — hit-rate alone misleads (smart money loads cheap longshots), so we measure edge over the implied price. We publish the interval, not just the point: the sample is young and growing, and we won't call it edge until the numbers earn it.
Top sharp wallets
View leaderboard →| Wallet | ROI | Win% | Brier | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xff4e…5502 | +12703% | 5% | 0.048 | 1134 |
| 0x58fd…43a6 | +7641% | 9% | 0.092 | 2903 |
| 0x5f25…3e2d | +5125% | 7% | 0.067 | 1501 |
| 0x56c2…6219 | +2460% | 3% | 0.029 | 3223 |
| 0x7152…faac | +1155% | 5% | 0.051 | 4316 |
| 0x07d4…8991 | +1068% | 7% | 0.066 | 7382 |
| 0xe7f9…6f0f | +614% | 13% | 0.116 | 1165 |
| 0x9449…d829 | +541% | 9% | 0.073 | 1737 |
- ROI
- +12703%
- Win%
- 5%
- Brier
- 0.048
- Resolved
- 1134
- ROI
- +7641%
- Win%
- 9%
- Brier
- 0.092
- Resolved
- 2903
- ROI
- +5125%
- Win%
- 7%
- Brier
- 0.067
- Resolved
- 1501
- ROI
- +2460%
- Win%
- 3%
- Brier
- 0.029
- Resolved
- 3223
- ROI
- +1155%
- Win%
- 5%
- Brier
- 0.051
- Resolved
- 4316
- ROI
- +1068%
- Win%
- 7%
- Brier
- 0.066
- Resolved
- 7382
- ROI
- +614%
- Win%
- 13%
- Brier
- 0.116
- Resolved
- 1165
- ROI
- +541%
- Win%
- 9%
- Brier
- 0.073
- Resolved
- 1737
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