Watch the smart money.
Sharp wallets on Polymarket — who has real, statistically-proven edge, where conviction concentrates, with ground-truth track records. Transparency, not tips.
Consensus track record · measured
When ≥1 tracked sharps backed an outcome it resolved their way 39% vs the 39% the price implied — a +0.5pp edge (n=69287).
95% confidence interval +0.1 to +0.8pp — statistically distinguishable from zero.
Ground-truth, captured at resolution — hit-rate alone misleads (smart money loads cheap longshots), so we measure edge over the implied price. We publish the interval, not just the point: the sample is young and growing, and we won't call it edge until the numbers earn it.
Top sharp wallets
View leaderboard →| Wallet | ROI | Win% | Brier | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4344…f90d | +283% | 25% | 0.176 | 408 |
| 0x51b2…10ce | +253% | 23% | 0.186 | 225 |
| 0x372d…a034 | +159% | 63% | 0.190 | 598 |
| 0x3f21…3bce | +144% | 37% | 0.152 | 324 |
| 0x3472…bc66 | +140% | 33% | 0.149 | 244 |
| 0x4b0f…38e7 | +136% | 25% | 0.173 | 153 |
| 0xef9f…8924 | +134% | 10% | 0.085 | 1255 |
| 0x0d7e…cb13 | +118% | 32% | 0.132 | 445 |
- ROI
- +283%
- Win%
- 25%
- Brier
- 0.176
- Resolved
- 408
- ROI
- +253%
- Win%
- 23%
- Brier
- 0.186
- Resolved
- 225
- ROI
- +159%
- Win%
- 63%
- Brier
- 0.190
- Resolved
- 598
- ROI
- +144%
- Win%
- 37%
- Brier
- 0.152
- Resolved
- 324
- ROI
- +140%
- Win%
- 33%
- Brier
- 0.149
- Resolved
- 244
- ROI
- +136%
- Win%
- 25%
- Brier
- 0.173
- Resolved
- 153
- ROI
- +134%
- Win%
- 10%
- Brier
- 0.085
- Resolved
- 1255
- ROI
- +118%
- Win%
- 32%
- Brier
- 0.132
- Resolved
- 445
Get whale signals in Telegram — free
Near-real-time alerts when tracked sharps make a big entry and when market consensus flips — from the same engine behind this site.
Subscribe in TelegramAlerts are published a few minutes after the on-chain entry. Analytics, not financial advice.