0xe1b3…1426

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.1pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

56% @ 43.2¢

Brier

0.166

Resolved

4878

Avg size

$76

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (268/418)	+30%	418
Politics	63% (33/52)	+19%	52
Tech	51% (26/51)	-11%	51
Geopolitics	53% (18/34)	+194%	34
Crypto	67% (6/9)	+2%	9
Sports	25% (1/4)	-55%	4
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other418 bets
Hit rate
64% (268/418)
ROI
+30%
Politics52 bets
Hit rate
63% (33/52)
ROI
+19%
Tech51 bets
Hit rate
51% (26/51)
ROI
-11%
Geopolitics34 bets
Hit rate
53% (18/34)
ROI
+194%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+2%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-55%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

62% hit · 352/569

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	$318	13.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	$1.3k	74.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$422	22.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$1.2k	78.0¢	Won
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	$361	53.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$492	41.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	$414	91.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	$208	26.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$548	36.7¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$163	48.4¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$16	34.0¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	$60	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$127	10.7¢	Lost
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	$60	4.0¢	Lost
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	$150	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netanyahu?	No	$99	71.0¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$67	77.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?	Yes	$152	72.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?	No	$6	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?	No	$13	66.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	No	$57	13.2¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	$84	84.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?	No	$22	19.9¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	No	$1.3k	72.9¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$312	59.8¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$8	2.0¢	Lost
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$7.6k	15.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	No	$284	58.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$1	74.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	$215	79.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	$17	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$82	75.0¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	$116	33.0¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$633	84.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$256	85.3¢	Won
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?	No	$2	43.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$214	89.3¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$712	18.3¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?	No	$143	89.0¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9?	Yes	$382	86.7¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$326	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	Yes	$30	21.7¢	Won
Will Shayne say "Domer" or "Domah" or "Car" or "aenews" during 60 Minutes?	No	$73	69.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?	No	$273	67.2¢	Won
Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$500	57.0¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$334	5.2¢	Lost
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$734	50.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	$2.3k	79.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?	No	$27	27.0¢	Lost

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Lost
Yes$318 @ 13.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 74.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$422 @ 22.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 78.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Won
Yes$361 @ 53.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
No$492 @ 41.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
No$414 @ 91.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Lost
Yes$208 @ 26.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$548 @ 36.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$163 @ 48.4¢
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 34.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$60 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
No$127 @ 10.7¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Lost
No$60 @ 4.0¢
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?Won
No$150 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netanyahu?Won
No$99 @ 71.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?Won
Yes$152 @ 72.2¢
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?Won
No$6 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?Won
No$13 @ 66.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$57 @ 13.2¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?Lost
No$84 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?Lost
No$22 @ 19.9¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Won
No$1.3k @ 72.9¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$312 @ 59.8¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.0¢
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$7.6k @ 15.5¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Won
No$284 @ 58.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
Yes$215 @ 79.9¢
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
Yes$17 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$82 @ 75.0¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
No$116 @ 33.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$633 @ 84.9¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$256 @ 85.3¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$214 @ 89.3¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$712 @ 18.3¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?Won
No$143 @ 89.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9?Won
Yes$382 @ 86.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$326 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Won
Yes$30 @ 21.7¢
Will Shayne say "Domer" or "Domah" or "Car" or "aenews" during 60 Minutes?Won
No$73 @ 69.9¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$273 @ 67.2¢
Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$500 @ 57.0¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$334 @ 5.2¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$734 @ 50.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?Won
No$2.3k @ 79.8¢
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?Lost
No$27 @ 27.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$15.0k	50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$15.0k	50.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$13.7k	40.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.7k	74.9¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$2.2k	46.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	73.5¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	88.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$1.5k	68.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	83.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.2k	68.7¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.0k	94.8¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.0k	84.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$956	91.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$830	83.0¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$782	93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$780	74.6¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$735	19.1¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$693	93.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$619	93.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$418	63.5¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$404	84.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$392	87.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	Anthropic	$390	78.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$367	88.0¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$361	83.9¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$360	86.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$358	59.7¢
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	Crypto	No	$352	88.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Tech	No	$335	66.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$318	13.2¢

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$15.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$15.0k @ 50.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$13.7k @ 40.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$3.7k @ 74.9¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$2.2k @ 46.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 73.5¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 88.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$1.5k @ 68.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 83.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.2k @ 68.7¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.0k @ 94.8¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$1.0k @ 84.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$956 @ 91.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$830 @ 83.0¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$782 @ 93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$780 @ 74.6¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech
Yes$735 @ 19.1¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$693 @ 93.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$619 @ 93.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$418 @ 63.5¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
No$404 @ 84.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$392 @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
Anthropic$390 @ 78.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$367 @ 88.0¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$361 @ 83.9¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
No$360 @ 86.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$358 @ 59.7¢
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?Crypto
No$352 @ 88.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech
No$335 @ 66.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$318 @ 13.2¢