0xe1b3…1426

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.3pp

ROI

+28%

Win rate

56% @ 43.2¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

4738

Avg size

$78

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (266/413)	+31%	413
Tech	46% (18/39)	-16%	39
Politics	62% (24/39)	+20%	39
Geopolitics	52% (13/25)	+211%	25
Crypto	71% (5/7)	+3%	7
Sports	25% (1/4)	-55%	4

Other413 bets
Hit rate
64% (266/413)
ROI
+31%
Tech39 bets
Hit rate
46% (18/39)
ROI
-16%
Politics39 bets
Hit rate
62% (24/39)
ROI
+20%
Geopolitics25 bets
Hit rate
52% (13/25)
ROI
+211%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+3%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-55%

Track record

62% hit · 327/527

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netanyahu?	No	$99	71.0¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$67	77.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?	Yes	$152	72.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?	No	$6	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?	No	$13	66.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?	No	$57	13.2¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	$84	84.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?	No	$22	19.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?	No	$25	35.9¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	No	$1.3k	72.9¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$312	59.8¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$8	2.0¢	Lost
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$7.6k	15.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	No	$284	58.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$1	74.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	$215	79.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	$17	68.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$82	75.0¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	$116	33.0¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$633	84.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$256	85.3¢	Won
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?	No	$2	43.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$214	89.3¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$712	18.3¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?	No	$143	89.0¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9?	Yes	$382	86.7¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$326	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	Yes	$30	21.7¢	Won
Will Shayne say "Domer" or "Domah" or "Car" or "aenews" during 60 Minutes?	No	$73	69.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?	No	$273	67.2¢	Won
Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$500	57.0¢	Won
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$334	5.2¢	Lost
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$734	50.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	$2.3k	79.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?	No	$27	27.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tax" or "Tariff" 10+ times during the McDonald's Summit on November 17?	Yes	$50	63.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "F-35" or "B-2" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?	No	$19	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?	Yes	$172	71.2¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$647	11.4¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$266	13.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$2.8k	78.0¢	Won
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?	Yes	$38	19.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$326	81.4¢	Won
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	3.0¢	Lost
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$47	2.5¢	Lost
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	$538	38.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$3.3k	65.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	$58	45.0¢	Lost
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?	No	$12	29.1¢	Won

Will Trump say "Palestine" or "Palestinian" during meeting with Netanyahu?Won
No$99 @ 71.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$67 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?Won
Yes$152 @ 72.2¢
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of January 2026?Won
No$6 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?Won
No$13 @ 66.0¢
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$57 @ 13.2¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?Lost
No$84 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump say "Tractor" during National Agriculture Day events?Lost
No$22 @ 19.9¢
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?Lost
No$25 @ 35.9¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Won
No$1.3k @ 72.9¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$312 @ 59.8¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.0¢
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$7.6k @ 15.5¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Won
No$284 @ 58.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
Yes$215 @ 79.9¢
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
Yes$17 @ 68.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$82 @ 75.0¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
No$116 @ 33.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$633 @ 84.9¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$256 @ 85.3¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 12, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$214 @ 89.3¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$712 @ 18.3¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?Won
No$143 @ 89.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9?Won
Yes$382 @ 86.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$326 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Won
Yes$30 @ 21.7¢
Will Shayne say "Domer" or "Domah" or "Car" or "aenews" during 60 Minutes?Won
No$73 @ 69.9¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$273 @ 67.2¢
Will AGI Inc.'s market cap be less than $2.75B at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$500 @ 57.0¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$334 @ 5.2¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$734 @ 50.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?Won
No$2.3k @ 79.8¢
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?Lost
No$27 @ 27.0¢
Will Trump say "Tax" or "Tariff" 10+ times during the McDonald's Summit on November 17?Won
Yes$50 @ 63.6¢
Will Trump say "F-35" or "B-2" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?Lost
No$19 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?Won
Yes$172 @ 71.2¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$647 @ 11.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$266 @ 13.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$2.8k @ 78.0¢
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?Won
Yes$38 @ 19.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$326 @ 81.4¢
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.0¢
Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Lost
Yes$47 @ 2.5¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Won
Yes$538 @ 38.5¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$3.3k @ 65.2¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Lost
Yes$58 @ 45.0¢
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?Won
No$12 @ 29.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$20.0k	50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$20.0k	50.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$15.0k	36.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.7k	74.9¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$2.2k	46.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	73.5¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.8k	88.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$1.5k	68.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$1.3k	74.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	83.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.2k	68.7¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.0k	94.8¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.0k	84.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$960	85.4¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$956	91.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$830	83.0¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$782	93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$780	74.6¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Crypto	Yes	$736	35.8¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$735	19.1¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$693	93.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$619	93.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$548	36.7¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$529	88.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$416	42.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$414	91.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$404	84.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$392	87.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	Anthropic	$390	78.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$367	88.0¢

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$20.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$20.0k @ 50.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$15.0k @ 36.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$3.7k @ 74.9¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$2.2k @ 46.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 73.5¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$1.8k @ 88.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$1.5k @ 68.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$1.3k @ 74.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 83.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.2k @ 68.7¢
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.0k @ 94.8¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$1.0k @ 84.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$960 @ 85.4¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$956 @ 91.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$830 @ 83.0¢
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$782 @ 93.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$780 @ 74.6¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
Yes$736 @ 35.8¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech
Yes$735 @ 19.1¢
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$693 @ 93.3¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$619 @ 93.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$548 @ 36.7¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$529 @ 88.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$416 @ 42.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$414 @ 91.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
No$404 @ 84.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$392 @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
Anthropic$390 @ 78.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$367 @ 88.0¢