0xc408…4675

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc4086b708cd3a50880b7069add1a1a80000f4675
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.7pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

55% @ 52.6¢

Brier

0.084

Resolved

1412

Avg size

$474

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	53% (23/43)	+7%	43
Other	44% (15/34)	-3%	34
Geopolitics	57% (4/7)	+13%	7
Economy	50% (1/2)	-54%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Sports	100% (1/1)	+0%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+257%	1

Politics43 bets
Hit rate
53% (23/43)
ROI
+7%
Other34 bets
Hit rate
44% (15/34)
ROI
-3%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+13%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-54%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+257%

Track record

51% hit · 45/89

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.7k	11.3¢	Lost
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	0.6¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$801	0.7¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$196	49.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$137	41.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$691	90.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$2.9k	29.0¢	Lost
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	Yes	$5	6.3¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani by July 31?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$3.1k	9.8¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: April	Something	$68	37.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	67.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$1.5k	74.0¢	Won
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?	No	$117	5.6¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	$2.4k	47.0¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$1.8k	89.1¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$3	66.0¢	Lost
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?	No	$9	5.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$54.7k	84.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$1.5k	6.6¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.2k	28.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	29.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	No	$830	63.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$469	13.5¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	$1.2k	54.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$796	5.6¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$4.0k	81.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$1.2k	31.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	$188	2.6¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$1.3k	60.7¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$403	8.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$29.5k	73.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$14.0k	51.6¢	Won
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	82.9¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$80.9k	87.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$40.9k	33.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$123	11.9¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	No	$2.0k	88.5¢	Won
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?	Yes	$110	2.2¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	$115	86.0¢	Won
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	$3.4k	86.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$116	13.5¢	Lost
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$18	0.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	$9.7k	35.2¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$7.6k	88.4¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Playoffs	Team Liquid	$1.1k	37.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$19.2k	76.8¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$36.6k	84.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$208.8k	86.5¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.6k	13.0¢	Lost

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.7k @ 11.3¢
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.6¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$801 @ 0.7¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$196 @ 49.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$137 @ 41.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$691 @ 90.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$2.9k @ 29.0¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Lost
Yes$5 @ 6.3¢
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani by July 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.1k @ 9.8¢
Nothing Ever Happens: AprilLost
Something$68 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 67.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$1.5k @ 74.0¢
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?Lost
No$117 @ 5.6¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$2.4k @ 47.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$1.8k @ 89.1¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 66.0¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?Lost
No$9 @ 5.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$54.7k @ 84.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 6.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 28.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 29.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
No$830 @ 63.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$469 @ 13.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 54.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$796 @ 5.6¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 81.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 31.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Lost
No$188 @ 2.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 60.7¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$403 @ 8.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$29.5k @ 73.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$14.0k @ 51.6¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 82.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$80.9k @ 87.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$40.9k @ 33.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$123 @ 11.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Won
No$2.0k @ 88.5¢
Will Trump Insult Xi this week?Lost
Yes$110 @ 2.2¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Won
Yes$115 @ 86.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Won
No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$116 @ 13.5¢
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
Yes$9.7k @ 35.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$7.6k @ 88.4¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsLost
Team Liquid$1.1k @ 37.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$19.2k @ 76.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$36.6k @ 84.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$208.8k @ 86.5¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 13.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$17.2k	83.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$13.8k	92.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.7k	82.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Politics	No	$5.8k	99.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.0k	22.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	No	$599	2.5¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$521	17.7¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$400	2.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$329	10.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	No	$296	19.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?	Politics	No	$287	92.8¢
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$124	0.8¢

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$17.2k @ 83.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$13.8k @ 92.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$7.7k @ 82.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics
No$5.8k @ 99.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.0k @ 22.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
No$599 @ 2.5¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$521 @ 17.7¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
Yes$400 @ 2.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
Yes$329 @ 10.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
No$296 @ 19.0¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?Politics
No$287 @ 92.8¢
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Candace Owens win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Rick Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$124 @ 0.8¢