0xd8d5…8935

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics427 bets

  Hit rate

  54% (229/427)

  ROI

  +8%

• Other207 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (125/207)

  ROI

  +19%

• Tech71 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (49/71)

  ROI

  +12%

• Geopolitics54 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (43/54)

  ROI

  +3%

• Sports27 bets

  Hit rate

  74% (20/27)

  ROI

  -22%

• Culture17 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (10/17)

  ROI

  +0%

• Economy15 bets

  Hit rate

  47% (7/15)

  ROI

  -1%

• Crypto10 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (6/10)

  ROI

  +9%

• Science2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +4%

• Business2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +119%

• Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Lost
  No$806 @ 44.7¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$114 @ 57.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$90 @ 45.0¢
• Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Lost
  Yes$225 @ 1.9¢
• Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Won
  Yes$94 @ 20.9¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 5, 2026?Lost
  No$5 @ 5.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?Won
  Yes$49 @ 55.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
  No$27 @ 3.0¢
• Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
  No$89 @ 12.7¢
• Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Lost
  No$148 @ 79.0¢
• Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Lost
  No$203 @ 17.0¢
• Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Won
  No$263 @ 87.8¢
• Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Lost
  Yes$70 @ 7.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Lost
  No$335 @ 33.0¢
• CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Lost
  No$6 @ 15.0¢
• Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?Lost
  Yes$77 @ 25.6¢
• Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Lost
  No$300 @ 45.5¢
• Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?Lost
  No$210 @ 70.0¢
• Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
  Yes$35 @ 6.1¢
• Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 10?Lost
  No$27 @ 53.0¢
• Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
• Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Won
  Yes$96 @ 32.0¢
• Will Tricia McLaughlin be the next White House Press Secretary?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
• Will Juliana Brizola win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?Lost
  Yes$187 @ 31.0¢
• Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  No$183 @ 36.6¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Lost
  No$210 @ 77.4¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$74 @ 4.9¢
• Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $12.75B by September 30?Won
  No$88 @ 62.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$1.4k @ 86.5¢
• Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
  Yes$147 @ 48.0¢
• Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $800B and $900B at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$51 @ 25.0¢
• Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Lost
  No$20 @ 10.0¢
• Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?Lost
  Under$169 @ 24.1¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$28.6k @ 58.9¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$24.7k @ 79.9¢
• Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?Won
  Yes$13 @ 80.0¢
• Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?Lost
  No$321 @ 53.5¢
• Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?Won
  Yes$48 @ 16.0¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Won
  No$10 @ 83.0¢
• Will Olivier Faure win the Socialist Party nomination to contest the 2027 French presidential elections?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 14.0¢
• Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
  Yes$162 @ 40.0¢
• Will Grüne win less than 3% of all valid second votes?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 2.0¢
• Will Rigotto win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 1.7¢
• Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
  Yes$128 @ 6.4¢
• Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?Won
  No$117 @ 39.0¢
• Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?Won
  No$5.2k @ 84.5¢
• Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
  Yes$204 @ 9.4¢
• Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?Won
  No$162 @ 54.0¢
• Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
  No$103 @ 20.5¢
• Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$2.4k @ 58.8¢

Current positions

• Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027?Politics
  Yes$7.9k @ 87.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
  No$4.8k @ 83.1¢
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  Yes$4.5k @ 70.9¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$3.4k @ 84.4¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$3.3k @ 82.3¢
• Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
  No$2.0k @ 85.5¢
• Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
  No$1.8k @ 90.0¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$1.7k @ 87.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$1.6k @ 80.7¢
• New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Culture
  No$1.5k @ 92.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.5k @ 38.5¢
• Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.4k @ 65.9¢
• Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 68.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 53.4¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.0k @ 58.6¢
• Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto
  No$929 @ 92.9¢
• Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$890 @ 70.5¢
• US takes Panama Canal before 2027?Politics
  No$877 @ 87.7¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
  No$740 @ 74.0¢
• Yoon out of custody before 2027?Politics
  No$720 @ 85.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  Yes$658 @ 65.8¢
• Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?Crypto
  No$640 @ 64.0¢
• Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
  Yes$554 @ 48.4¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  No$499 @ 45.4¢
• Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$483 @ 59.1¢
• Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?Politics
  No$474 @ 80.1¢
• Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$473 @ 72.1¢
• Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
  No$465 @ 76.2¢
• Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
  No$454 @ 90.1¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  Yes$432 @ 54.0¢