0x4934…6d71

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x49341db98d00c870dc2925d36a32369cfe376d71
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.5pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

77% @ 67.6¢

Brier

0.147

Resolved

319

Avg size

$40

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	62% (44/71)	+20%	71
Politics	81% (29/36)	+25%	36
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	-53%	5
Sports	25% (1/4)	-56%	4
Tech	100% (2/2)	+46%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+245%	1

Other71 bets
Hit rate
62% (44/71)
ROI
+20%
Politics36 bets
Hit rate
81% (29/36)
ROI
+25%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-53%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-56%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+46%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+245%

Track record

68% hit · 81/119

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?	No	$10	86.8¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$220	86.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$150	59.3¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$68	85.3¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$1	17.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$280	69.7¢	Won
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	Yes	$1	40.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$1	62.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$50	89.0¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$334	77.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$20	83.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$30	77.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	55.6¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$281	85.0¢	Won
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?	Yes	$15	89.0¢	Won
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$20	76.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$794	76.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	$1	4.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$536	77.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$50	87.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$41	29.0¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$100	74.0¢	Won
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	No	$1	35.0¢	Lost
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	Yes	$770	84.4¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?	No	$50	88.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$18	9.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$20	88.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$263	69.3¢	Lost
Will Rafael Leao be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$90	50.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$48	77.6¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	$26	88.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$8	82.0¢	Won
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Yes	$17	89.0¢	Won
Will Christian Pulisic be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$23	88.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$100	87.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$605	67.9¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$20	90.0¢	Won
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?	No	$141	85.6¢	Won
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$320	73.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?	No	$300	82.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$100	84.7¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	Yes	$20	46.0¢	Lost
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$140	42.5¢	Lost
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$10	79.0¢	Won
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	Yes	$30	84.8¢	Won

Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?Won
No$10 @ 86.8¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$220 @ 86.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 59.3¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$68 @ 85.3¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$1 @ 17.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$280 @ 69.7¢
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Won
Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$50 @ 89.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$334 @ 77.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 83.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$30 @ 77.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 55.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$281 @ 85.0¢
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?Won
Yes$15 @ 89.0¢
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$20 @ 76.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$794 @ 76.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$536 @ 77.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 87.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$41 @ 29.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$100 @ 74.0¢
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Lost
No$1 @ 35.0¢
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Won
Yes$770 @ 84.4¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 88.0¢
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$18 @ 9.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$20 @ 88.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$263 @ 69.3¢
Will Rafael Leao be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$90 @ 50.4¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$48 @ 77.6¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 88.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$8 @ 82.0¢
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
Yes$17 @ 89.0¢
Will Christian Pulisic be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$23 @ 88.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$100 @ 87.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$605 @ 67.9¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$20 @ 90.0¢
Will AC Milan win the 2025–26 Serie A league?Won
No$141 @ 85.6¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$320 @ 73.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Won
No$300 @ 82.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$100 @ 84.7¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Lost
Yes$20 @ 46.0¢
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$140 @ 42.5¢
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$10 @ 79.0¢
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?Won
Yes$30 @ 84.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$425	60.2¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$293	93.3¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Politics	No	$231	83.3¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$230	66.8¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Politics	No	$215	86.0¢
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	Politics	No	$200	94.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$186	90.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$179	76.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$150	85.2¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?	Politics	No	$141	91.7¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$131	84.1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$127	74.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$122	30.1¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$110	87.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$102	91.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Economy	Yes	$100	92.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Geopolitics	No	$100	74.0¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$95	95.0¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$90	90.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$81	81.9¢
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?	Politics	No	$80	80.0¢
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$78	73.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$63	10.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$61	63.6¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	—	No	$60	83.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$51	50.3¢
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?	Politics	No	$44	53.0¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$41	79.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$41	75.3¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$41	77.5¢

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$425 @ 60.2¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?Tech
No$293 @ 93.3¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Politics
No$231 @ 83.3¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$230 @ 66.8¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Politics
No$215 @ 86.0¢
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?Politics
No$200 @ 94.1¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$186 @ 90.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$179 @ 76.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$150 @ 85.2¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Politics
No$141 @ 91.7¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$131 @ 84.1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$127 @ 74.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$122 @ 30.1¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$110 @ 87.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$102 @ 91.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Economy
Yes$100 @ 92.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Geopolitics
No$100 @ 74.0¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$95 @ 95.0¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
No$90 @ 90.0¢
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$81 @ 81.9¢
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?Politics
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$78 @ 73.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$63 @ 10.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$61 @ 63.6¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?—
No$60 @ 83.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$51 @ 50.3¢
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?Politics
No$44 @ 53.0¢
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?Geopolitics
No$41 @ 79.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
No$41 @ 75.3¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$41 @ 77.5¢