0x4934…6d71

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x49341db98d00c870dc2925d36a32369cfe376d71
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.1pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

70% @ 67.1¢

Brier

0.156

Resolved

1171

Avg size

$48

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	66% (300/457)	+11%	457
Politics	77% (80/104)	+18%	104
Sports	58% (22/38)	-5%	38
Geopolitics	85% (17/20)	-18%	20
Tech	83% (5/6)	+17%	6
Economy	75% (3/4)	-1%	4
Crypto	75% (3/4)	+79%	4
Science	100% (1/1)	+12%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+5%	1

Other457 bets
Hit rate
66% (300/457)
ROI
+11%
Politics104 bets
Hit rate
77% (80/104)
ROI
+18%
Sports38 bets
Hit rate
58% (22/38)
ROI
-5%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
85% (17/20)
ROI
-18%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+17%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
-1%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+79%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+12%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+5%

Track record

68% hit · 432/635

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Miami (OH) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Greek Independence Day event?	No	$1	73.0¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	Yes	$300	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 2?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$30	40.2¢	Won
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?	No	$10	86.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Drug" during Honduran President events?	Yes	$1	54.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?	Yes	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?	No	$18	73.7¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Prelims)	Gandra	$1	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 27?	Yes	$94	86.1¢	Lost
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5	Over	$10	69.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?	No	$1000	81.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$100	83.1¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	No	$1	82.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$40	86.5¢	Won
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$20	18.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 15?	No	$41	78.0¢	Won
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$208	83.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$18	84.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$4	78.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)	Mason Jones	$20	58.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" this week? (April 5)	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$5	14.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?	Yes	$28	28.1¢	Lost
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$50	66.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$220	86.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$150	59.3¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$68	85.3¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$30	83.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$1	17.9¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$280	69.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	$30	62.0¢	Won
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	No	$1	88.0¢	Lost
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?	Yes	$1	40.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$4	88.2¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$1	62.0¢	Won
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28?	No	$2	74.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$60	46.4¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$50	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Yes	$150	73.2¢	Won
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-14?	Yes	$1	68.0¢	Lost
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	$30	81.5¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$334	77.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 13?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during Greek Independence Day event?	No	$10	88.0¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Call your Democrat" or "Call a Democrat" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	$10	79.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July?	No	$2.6k	71.1¢	Won

Will Miami (OH) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Greek Independence Day event?Won
No$1 @ 73.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
Yes$300 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 2?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 40.2¢
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in April 2026 (ET)?Won
No$10 @ 86.8¢
Will Trump say "Drug" during Honduran President events?Lost
Yes$1 @ 54.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?Lost
Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Fighting Oligarchy rally?Lost
No$18 @ 73.7¢
UFC Fight Night: Jose Daniel Medina vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Prelims)Won
Gandra$1 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 27?Lost
Yes$94 @ 86.1¢
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Won
Over$10 @ 69.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?Won
No$1000 @ 81.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 83.1¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Won
No$1 @ 82.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$40 @ 86.5¢
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$20 @ 18.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 15?Won
No$41 @ 78.0¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$208 @ 83.7¢
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$18 @ 84.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$4 @ 78.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims)Won
Mason Jones$20 @ 58.0¢
Will Trump say "Hamas" or "Hezbollah" this week? (April 5)Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 14.0¢
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring meeting with Netanyahu?Lost
Yes$28 @ 28.1¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$50 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$220 @ 86.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 59.3¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$68 @ 85.3¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$30 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$1 @ 17.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$280 @ 69.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Won
Yes$30 @ 62.0¢
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Lost
No$1 @ 88.0¢
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?Won
Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$4 @ 88.2¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$1 @ 62.0¢
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28?Won
No$2 @ 74.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$60 @ 46.4¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$50 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
Yes$150 @ 73.2¢
Will AC Milan win on 2025-12-14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 68.0¢
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Won
Yes$30 @ 81.5¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$334 @ 77.5¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on December 13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during Greek Independence Day event?Won
No$10 @ 88.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Call your Democrat" or "Call a Democrat" during the next White House Press Briefing?Won
No$10 @ 79.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July?Won
No$2.6k @ 71.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$310	69.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$300	75.9¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$232	82.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$203	88.9¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$179	83.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$150	85.2¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$137	85.7¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$130	79.7¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$127	74.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$126	29.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$123	71.2¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Politics	No	$110	87.9¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$106	82.2¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$101	72.2¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$90	90.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$86	68.4¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$84	79.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$78	81.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$77	66.1¢
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Politics	No	$75	75.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$64	74.8¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Crypto	No	$58	65.3¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Crypto	No	$52	62.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$51	76.0¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	Tech	No	$49	78.4¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$46	76.5¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$45	76.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$45	73.1¢
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?	Politics	No	$44	53.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$44	70.2¢

Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$310 @ 69.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$300 @ 75.9¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$232 @ 82.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$203 @ 88.9¢
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$179 @ 83.2¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$150 @ 85.2¢
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$137 @ 85.7¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$130 @ 79.7¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$127 @ 74.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$126 @ 29.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$123 @ 71.2¢
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics
No$110 @ 87.9¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$106 @ 82.2¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$101 @ 72.2¢
Ebola pandemic in 2026?Science
No$90 @ 90.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$86 @ 68.4¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$84 @ 79.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$78 @ 81.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$77 @ 66.1¢
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Politics
No$75 @ 75.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$64 @ 74.8¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
No$58 @ 65.3¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
No$52 @ 62.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$51 @ 76.0¢
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?Tech
No$49 @ 78.4¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$46 @ 76.5¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$45 @ 76.2¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$45 @ 73.1¢
Will Donald Trump visit Italy in 2026?Politics
No$44 @ 53.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$44 @ 70.2¢