0xb2a3…79e0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xb2a309a61ca9ed5db26e9fdda3a19ff4ae3a79e0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.8pp

ROI

+161%

Win rate

54% @ 40.5¢

Brier

0.206

Resolved

258

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (23/44)	+322%	44
Tech	37% (7/19)	-63%	19
Politics	59% (10/17)	+18%	17
Geopolitics	50% (5/10)	-9%	10
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+59%	1

Other44 bets
Hit rate
52% (23/44)
ROI
+322%
Tech19 bets
Hit rate
37% (7/19)
ROI
-63%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
-9%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+59%

Track record

51% hit · 46/91

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$53	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	76.0¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$6	18.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$3	14.5¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$3	13.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	43.0¢	Won
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$4	87.0¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$1	37.0¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	87.5¢	Won
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$16	1.7¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$2	45.2¢	Won
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	No	$10	64.3¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$5	24.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$30	65.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$3	17.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$8	28.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?	Yes	$5	72.0¢	Lost
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	$2	90.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	87.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$10	71.2¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$89	51.5¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?	No	$3	66.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$20	55.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$6	25.8¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	$3	27.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$5	10.7¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$5	0.7¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$29	23.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	37.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$2	29.0¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$3	48.7¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$14	62.3¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$13	30.2¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	No	$12	77.0¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	No	$1	18.4¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?	Yes	$4	36.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$5	36.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	No	$4	87.5¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?	Yes	$3	14.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$11	11.6¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	No	$5	77.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	No	$8	3.1¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$3	51.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?	No	$6	79.3¢	Won

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$53 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 76.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$6 @ 18.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$3 @ 14.5¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$3 @ 13.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 43.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
Yes$4 @ 87.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 37.0¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 87.5¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$16 @ 1.7¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$2 @ 45.2¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
No$10 @ 64.3¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 24.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$30 @ 65.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 28.9¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?Lost
Yes$5 @ 72.0¢
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?Won
Yes$2 @ 90.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 87.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$10 @ 71.2¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$89 @ 51.5¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530?Lost
No$3 @ 66.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$20 @ 55.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$6 @ 25.8¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Won
No$3 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$5 @ 10.7¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.7¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$29 @ 23.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 37.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$2 @ 29.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 48.7¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$14 @ 62.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 30.2¢
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?Lost
No$12 @ 77.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 18.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Won
Yes$4 @ 36.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$5 @ 36.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Won
No$4 @ 87.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?Lost
Yes$3 @ 14.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 77.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
No$8 @ 3.1¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Won
Yes$3 @ 51.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Won
No$6 @ 79.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$29	84.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$23	27.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$22	54.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$15	81.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$14	87.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$11	86.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$10	92.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$8	70.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	94.9¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?	—	No	$7	97.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$6	92.8¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$6	92.1¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	—	Yes	$5	35.1¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	—	No	$5	90.7¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?	—	No	$4	97.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4	92.7¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	73.5¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$3	94.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$3	89.6¢
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	Crypto	No	$3	95.2¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$3	88.0¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?	—	No	$3	96.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	—	No	$3	91.9¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$2	9.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	—	Yes	$2	63.7¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$2	94.8¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?	Tech	No	$2	65.4¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	Yes	$2	22.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Tech	No	$2	46.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	—	Yes	$2	35.1¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$29 @ 84.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech
Yes$23 @ 27.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$22 @ 54.4¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$15 @ 81.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$14 @ 87.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$11 @ 86.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$10 @ 92.0¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$8 @ 70.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 94.9¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?—
No$7 @ 97.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$6 @ 92.8¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$6 @ 92.1¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?—
Yes$5 @ 35.1¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?—
No$5 @ 90.7¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?—
No$4 @ 97.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$4 @ 92.7¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 73.5¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 94.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$3 @ 89.6¢
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?Crypto
No$3 @ 95.2¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$3 @ 88.0¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in Connecticut by November 30, 2026?—
No$3 @ 96.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?—
No$3 @ 91.9¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?—
Yes$2 @ 63.7¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$2 @ 94.8¢
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?Tech
No$2 @ 65.4¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?—
Yes$2 @ 22.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech
No$2 @ 46.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?—
Yes$2 @ 35.1¢