← Smart money
0xf5e0…41a8
ProfitableEdge
+47.6pp
ROI
+133%
Win rate
90% @ 42.2¢
Brier
0.311
Resolved
98
Avg size
$27
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tech | 80% (4/5) | +64% | 5 |
| Politics | 75% (3/4) | +59% | 4 |
| Crypto | 67% (2/3) | +193% | 3 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | -8% | 2 |
- Tech5 bets
- Hit rate
- 80% (4/5)
- ROI
- +64%
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 75% (3/4)
- ROI
- +59%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +193%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -8%
Track record
71% hit · 10/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $135 | 21.9¢ | Lost |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | $377 | 49.3¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $1.3k | 31.3¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $36 | 44.7¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $232 | 37.2¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $150 | 73.8¢ | Won |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | $321 | 68.2¢ | Won |
| Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? | No | $12 | 8.6¢ | Lost |
| Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? | Yes | $86 | 95.0¢ | Won |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | $1 | 20.0¢ | Won |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Yes | $68 | 6.0¢ | Lost |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | No | $348 | 57.0¢ | Won |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | $78 | 63.0¢ | Won |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | $423 | 68.8¢ | Won |
- Yes$135 @ 21.9¢
- Yes$377 @ 49.3¢
- No$1.3k @ 31.3¢
- Yes$36 @ 44.7¢
- Yes$232 @ 37.2¢
- Yes$150 @ 73.8¢
- Yes$321 @ 68.2¢
- No$12 @ 8.6¢
- Yes$86 @ 95.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 20.0¢
- Yes$68 @ 6.0¢
- No$348 @ 57.0¢
- Yes$78 @ 63.0¢
- No$423 @ 68.8¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Geopolitics | No | $828 | 93.4¢ |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | No | $676 | 96.2¢ |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | Geopolitics | No | $673 | 81.1¢ |
| World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? | Sports | No | $575 | 96.3¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? | — | No | $431 | 94.0¢ |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Geopolitics | No | $430 | 83.4¢ |
| Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026? | — | No | $363 | 84.0¢ |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $361 | 70.8¢ |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $237 | 52.7¢ |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Politics | No | $116 | 71.0¢ |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $106 | 35.2¢ |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | Sports | No | $97 | 35.2¢ |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $77 | 63.0¢ |
| Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | Yes | $29 | 65.9¢ |
- No$828 @ 93.4¢
- No$676 @ 96.2¢
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?GeopoliticsNo$673 @ 81.1¢
- No$575 @ 96.3¢
- No$431 @ 94.0¢
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?GeopoliticsNo$430 @ 83.4¢
- No$363 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$361 @ 70.8¢
- Yes$237 @ 52.7¢
- No$116 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$106 @ 35.2¢
- No$97 @ 35.2¢
- Yes$77 @ 63.0¢
- Yes$29 @ 65.9¢