0xf5e0…41a8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf5e0b6fc06a08c1f30a16f862ad56f155b7141a8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+12.8pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

66% @ 53.2¢

Brier

0.228

Resolved

482

Avg size

$39

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (16/32)	-14%	32
Politics	69% (18/26)	+24%	26
Geopolitics	82% (14/17)	+39%	17
Tech	88% (7/8)	+45%	8
Sports	57% (4/7)	+48%	7
Crypto	71% (5/7)	+131%	7

Other32 bets
Hit rate
50% (16/32)
ROI
-14%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
69% (18/26)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
82% (14/17)
ROI
+39%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+45%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+48%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+131%

Track record

66% hit · 64/97

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	$128	52.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$135	21.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$377	49.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$227	43.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$218	37.5¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$1.3k	31.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$36	44.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	$303	88.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$138	57.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$232	37.2¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$150	73.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	No	$18	27.0¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$348	57.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$321	68.2¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$78	63.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?	No	$132	46.7¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	No	$190	48.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$498	25.7¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	No	$24	40.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	$131	88.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$237	39.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	No	$42	87.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$279	74.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$756	90.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$413	62.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$302	98.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$6	84.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	Yes	$51	21.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$107	63.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$143	61.6¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	No	$420	96.4¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$197	71.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?	Yes	$9	53.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$64	43.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$74	90.9¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$575	86.4¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$127	51.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$16	12.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$60	42.0¢	Won
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	England	$195	54.0¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$4	38.0¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$140	65.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$471	70.6¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$50	86.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	Yes	$137	54.1¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$35	35.1¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$5	42.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$106	62.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	No	$90	68.8¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	$11	48.5¢	Won

Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Won
No$128 @ 52.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$135 @ 21.9¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$377 @ 49.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$227 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$218 @ 37.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 31.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 44.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Won
No$303 @ 88.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$138 @ 57.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$232 @ 37.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$150 @ 73.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Lost
No$18 @ 27.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$348 @ 57.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$321 @ 68.2¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$78 @ 63.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
No$132 @ 46.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Won
No$190 @ 48.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$498 @ 25.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Lost
No$24 @ 40.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
No$131 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$237 @ 39.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Won
No$42 @ 87.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$279 @ 74.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$756 @ 90.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$413 @ 62.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$302 @ 98.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$6 @ 84.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$51 @ 21.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$107 @ 63.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$143 @ 61.6¢
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?Won
No$420 @ 96.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$197 @ 71.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?Won
Yes$9 @ 53.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$64 @ 43.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$74 @ 90.9¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$575 @ 86.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$127 @ 51.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$16 @ 12.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$60 @ 42.0¢
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceLost
England$195 @ 54.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$4 @ 38.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$140 @ 65.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$471 @ 70.6¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$50 @ 86.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?Lost
Yes$137 @ 54.1¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$35 @ 35.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 42.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$106 @ 62.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?Won
No$90 @ 68.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Won
No$11 @ 48.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	69.2¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$748	64.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$713	86.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$533	86.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$464	77.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$432	72.0¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$363	84.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$91	44.0¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 69.2¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$748 @ 64.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$713 @ 86.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$533 @ 86.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$464 @ 77.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$432 @ 72.0¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$363 @ 84.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$91 @ 44.0¢