0xcd71…d127

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other24 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (12/24)

  ROI

  +33%

• Politics7 bets

  Hit rate

  29% (2/7)

  ROI

  -72%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +213%

• Geopolitics1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +426%

• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$14.0k @ 87.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.5k @ 9.0¢
• Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
  Yes$640 @ 5.5¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$21.8k @ 21.5¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10.6k @ 71.0¢
• Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Won
  Yes$1 @ 72.0¢
• Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
  Yes$444 @ 6.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$535 @ 19.0¢
• Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
  Yes$17.4k @ 25.9¢
• Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Lost
  No$18 @ 35.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$2.8k @ 14.0¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
  No$53 @ 80.1¢
• Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
  Yes$207 @ 5.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$20.5k @ 46.3¢
• Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
  Yes$578 @ 70.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$9.0k @ 22.5¢
• Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?Won
  Yes$10.2k @ 82.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$16.4k @ 41.0¢
• Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
  Yes$79 @ 0.4¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
  No$49.9k @ 99.7¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
  No$6 @ 87.0¢
• Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Won
  Yes$874 @ 10.0¢
• Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
  Yes$109 @ 89.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$9.9k @ 57.5¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
  No$2.1k @ 82.0¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
  No$7 @ 29.0¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$20.8k @ 42.3¢
• Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
  No$2.3k @ 10.2¢
• Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Lost
  No$2.8k @ 89.0¢
• Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Won
  Yes$623 @ 10.4¢
• Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Lost
  Yes$327 @ 0.3¢
• Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Lost
  Yes$52 @ 0.3¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$458 @ 54.0¢
• Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
  No$1.0k @ 99.6¢

Current positions

• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$72.9k @ 72.9¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$58.6k @ 86.6¢
• Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$50.0k @ 50.0¢
• Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  No$50.0k @ 50.0¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
  Yes$46.9k @ 62.5¢
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
  No$42.4k @ 75.1¢
• US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?—
  No$27.1k @ 97.7¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
  No$13.6k @ 77.8¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  No$13.4k @ 65.3¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$12.8k @ 87.0¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?—
  No$9.2k @ 88.4¢
• US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics
  No$8.1k @ 75.0¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$7.8k @ 47.8¢
• Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Politics
  No$7.6k @ 81.7¢
• Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
  No$7.4k @ 49.3¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?—
  No$6.1k @ 43.5¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$5.3k @ 81.0¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?—
  No$3.9k @ 54.3¢
• JD Vance out as VP by December 31?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 94.0¢
• SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Politics
  No$898 @ 81.4¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$856 @ 10.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?Politics
  No$726 @ 95.0¢
• Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?Politics
  Yes$166 @ 52.0¢
• Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?Culture
  No$148 @ 87.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$26 @ 94.9¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$8 @ 69.4¢