← Smart money
0x99f0…649f
SharpEdge
+11.4pp
ROI
+33%
Win rate
48% @ 36.8¢
Brier
0.133
Resolved
564
Avg size
$7
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 60% (3/5) | +70% | 5 |
| Politics | 67% (2/3) | +46% | 3 |
| Sports | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Other | 50% (1/2) | -17% | 2 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Crypto5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- +70%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +46%
- Sports2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Other2 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (1/2)
- ROI
- -17%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
43% hit · 6/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | $753 | 15.6¢ | Lost |
| Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? | No | $37 | 38.6¢ | Won |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | $14 | 33.7¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $740 | 33.2¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | $119 | 9.5¢ | Lost |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? | No | $22 | 8.7¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | $8 | 15.0¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $42 | 37.4¢ | Won |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $63 | 29.9¢ | Lost |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520? | No | $13 | 47.7¢ | Lost |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | $16 | 53.7¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | No | $378 | 30.2¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $1.6k | 67.5¢ | Won |
| Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin July 7-13? | No | $30 | 83.8¢ | Won |
- Yes$753 @ 15.6¢
- No$37 @ 38.6¢
- Yes$14 @ 33.7¢
- No$740 @ 33.2¢
- Yes$119 @ 9.5¢
- No$22 @ 8.7¢
- Yes$8 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$42 @ 37.4¢
- Yes$63 @ 29.9¢
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?LostNo$13 @ 47.7¢
- Yes$16 @ 53.7¢
- No$378 @ 30.2¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 67.5¢
- No$30 @ 83.8¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$914 @ 46.6¢
- No$316 @ 51.8¢
- No$288 @ 77.2¢
- Yes$229 @ 47.8¢
- Yes$212 @ 90.7¢
- No$195 @ 76.8¢
- No$160 @ 71.7¢
- No$149 @ 66.0¢
- No$132 @ 83.0¢
- No$131 @ 91.0¢
- No$119 @ 80.6¢
- No$101 @ 84.0¢
- No$96 @ 91.0¢
- No$81 @ 70.0¢
- No$79 @ 75.9¢
- Yes$75 @ 36.6¢
- No$72 @ 86.0¢
- No$66 @ 78.1¢
- No$62 @ 93.0¢
- No$57 @ 37.3¢
- Yes$55 @ 42.9¢
- No$51 @ 89.8¢
- No$43 @ 91.1¢
- No$40 @ 84.0¢
- No$40 @ 88.6¢
- No$40 @ 41.1¢
- No$40 @ 88.0¢
- Anthropic$39 @ 78.0¢
- Yes$37 @ 54.0¢
- No$37 @ 89.5¢