0x99f0…649f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x99f0563d918b53dd8bedbcf1709af042c051649f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.8pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

53% @ 46.0¢

Brier

0.172

Resolved

4248

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (141/296)	+0%	296
Politics	58% (37/64)	+27%	64
Geopolitics	56% (19/34)	+157%	34
Tech	33% (7/21)	-76%	21
Crypto	67% (6/9)	+1%	9
Sports	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Other296 bets
Hit rate
48% (141/296)
ROI
+0%
Politics64 bets
Hit rate
58% (37/64)
ROI
+27%
Geopolitics34 bets
Hit rate
56% (19/34)
ROI
+157%
Tech21 bets
Hit rate
33% (7/21)
ROI
-76%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+1%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

Track record

49% hit · 210/427

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	$37	89.5¢	Won
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	$23	25.8¢	Lost
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	No	$21	64.1¢	Won
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	No	$11	86.0¢	Lost
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	$4	23.5¢	Won
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	No	$15	87.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	$28	43.0¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	$61	64.9¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$36	13.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	$9	19.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	Yes	$23	43.2¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$40	41.1¢	Won
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	$75	36.6¢	Lost
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	$7	14.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-25?	No	$6	30.7¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$3	19.0¢	Lost
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?	Yes	$10	19.4¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	No	$12	77.5¢	Won
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?	No	$31	51.7¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$721	15.6¢	Lost
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?	No	$29	56.7¢	Won
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	$38	31.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?	No	$216	65.5¢	Won
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-28?	No	$4	36.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?	No	$12	64.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?	Yes	$9	25.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$9	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$38	38.0¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$65	85.8¢	Won
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$5	35.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	$29	36.1¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$18	54.2¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	Yes	$11	89.3¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$34	73.8¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$6	17.7¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$73	19.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?	Yes	$33	27.0¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28?	Yes	$68	65.5¢	Won
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28?	No	$1	11.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$81	80.7¢	Lost
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?	No	$13	28.7¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$31	5.4¢	Lost
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	$34	39.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$67	12.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$18	15.3¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$40	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$246	55.0¢	Lost

Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Won
No$37 @ 89.5¢
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Lost
Yes$23 @ 25.8¢
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Won
No$21 @ 64.1¢
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?Lost
No$11 @ 86.0¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?Won
Yes$4 @ 23.5¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?Won
No$15 @ 87.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Won
No$28 @ 43.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$61 @ 64.9¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 13.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Lost
Yes$9 @ 19.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?Lost
Yes$23 @ 43.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 41.1¢
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Lost
Yes$75 @ 36.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-25?Lost
No$6 @ 30.7¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$3 @ 19.0¢
Will Nepali Congress win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 19.4¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Won
No$12 @ 77.5¢
Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?Lost
No$31 @ 51.7¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$721 @ 15.6¢
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?Won
No$29 @ 56.7¢
Mezo FDV above $100M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$38 @ 31.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?Won
No$216 @ 65.5¢
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-01-28?Won
No$4 @ 36.0¢
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?Won
No$12 @ 64.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?Lost
Yes$9 @ 25.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$38 @ 38.0¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$65 @ 85.8¢
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 35.0¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Won
No$29 @ 36.1¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
Yes$18 @ 54.2¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
Yes$11 @ 89.3¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$34 @ 73.8¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$6 @ 17.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$73 @ 19.0¢
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?Lost
Yes$33 @ 27.0¢
Will Russia enter Ternuvate by February 28?Won
Yes$68 @ 65.5¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-28?Won
No$1 @ 11.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$81 @ 80.7¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25?Lost
No$13 @ 28.7¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$31 @ 5.4¢
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Lost
Yes$34 @ 39.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$67 @ 12.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$18 @ 15.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$40 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$246 @ 55.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.2k	54.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$288	77.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$234	78.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Crypto	Yes	$229	47.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$195	76.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$155	69.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$153	62.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$149	66.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$132	83.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$101	84.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$96	91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$79	75.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$72	86.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$62	93.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$57	37.3¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$51	89.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$43	91.1¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$40	84.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$40	88.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	No	$40	88.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Tech	Anthropic	$39	78.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Crypto	Yes	$37	54.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$37	86.2¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$36	84.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Tech	No	$34	67.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$33	13.6¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?	Science	No	$30	95.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$27	67.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$25	19.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$22	26.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$1.2k @ 54.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$288 @ 77.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$234 @ 78.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81Crypto
Yes$229 @ 47.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$195 @ 76.8¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$155 @ 69.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$153 @ 62.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$149 @ 66.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$132 @ 83.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$101 @ 84.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$96 @ 91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$79 @ 75.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$72 @ 86.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$62 @ 93.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$57 @ 37.3¢
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$51 @ 89.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$43 @ 91.1¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
No$40 @ 84.0¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 88.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
No$40 @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?Tech
Anthropic$39 @ 78.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
Yes$37 @ 54.0¢
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
No$37 @ 86.2¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$36 @ 84.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech
No$34 @ 67.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
Yes$33 @ 13.6¢
Will a hurricane make landfall in New York by November 30, 2026?Science
No$30 @ 95.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$27 @ 67.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech
Yes$25 @ 19.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$22 @ 26.9¢