0x45e8…cc6c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x45e856f0023259664606b6c370e82d072b24cc6c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.2pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

78% @ 69.7¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

727

Avg size

$118

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	69% (131/189)	+9%	189
Politics	83% (34/41)	+19%	41
Sports	62% (13/21)	-5%	21
Tech	50% (2/4)	-69%	4
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+26%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Other189 bets
Hit rate
69% (131/189)
ROI
+9%
Politics41 bets
Hit rate
83% (34/41)
ROI
+19%
Sports21 bets
Hit rate
62% (13/21)
ROI
-5%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-69%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+26%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

71% hit · 183/259

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	$107	43.0¢	Lost
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	No	$692	86.5¢	Lost
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	$1.6k	75.1¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	$345	69.0¢	Won
Jets vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	$41	81.0¢	Won
Cardinals vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$28	82.0¢	Won
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	$149	71.2¢	Lost
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	$1.3k	97.3¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$0	66.0¢	Won
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$1.6k	86.7¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	$819	91.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$400	80.0¢	Won
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$107	53.7¢	Won
Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5	Under	$74	55.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$186	51.5¢	Lost
Rams vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$342	57.0¢	Won
Colts vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$750	83.3¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	$158	69.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$489	81.5¢	Lost
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	$344	86.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$149	85.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$273	63.6¢	Won
Avalanche vs. Stars	Stars	$48	48.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$87	29.0¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Rockets	Rockets	$20	50.3¢	Won
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	$88	62.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	No	$747	80.9¢	Won
F1 Hungarian GP: Albon vs. Sainz	Sainz	$113	70.3¢	Won
Magic vs. 76ers	76ers	$3	69.0¢	Won
Will Sergio Perez leave Red Bull?	Yes	$64	80.3¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Yes	$53	11.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?	Yes	$200	83.4¢	Won
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open?	Yes	$18	24.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$143	63.6¢	Won
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5	Under	$57	57.0¢	Lost
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 247.5	Under	$51	51.0¢	Lost
"The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?	Yes	$125	51.1¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	Yes	$234	78.0¢	Won
Verstappen vs. Norris	Norris	$290	75.0¢	Won
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Panama	$119	76.0¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$164	82.0¢	Won
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60?	Yes	$8	3.9¢	Lost
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole?	Yes	$65	44.7¢	Won
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?	Yes	$66	87.2¢	Won
"Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89?	Yes	$6	55.0¢	Lost
Blues vs. Penguins	Penguins	$4	71.0¢	Won
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	Yes	$265	84.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner	FaZe	$169	84.3¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	$86	85.8¢	Won

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Lost
No$107 @ 43.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$692 @ 86.5¢
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 75.1¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Won
No$345 @ 69.0¢
Jets vs. ChiefsWon
Chiefs$41 @ 81.0¢
Cardinals vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$28 @ 82.0¢
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$149 @ 71.2¢
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 97.3¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$0 @ 66.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 86.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseWon
No$819 @ 91.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$400 @ 80.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
Yes$107 @ 53.7¢
Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Won
Under$74 @ 55.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$186 @ 51.5¢
Rams vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$342 @ 57.0¢
Colts vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$750 @ 83.3¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?Won
Yes$158 @ 69.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$489 @ 81.5¢
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Won
No$344 @ 86.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$149 @ 85.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$273 @ 63.6¢
Avalanche vs. StarsLost
Stars$48 @ 48.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$87 @ 29.0¢
Knicks vs. RocketsWon
Rockets$20 @ 50.3¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Won
Yes$88 @ 62.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
No$747 @ 80.9¢
F1 Hungarian GP: Albon vs. Sainz Won
Sainz $113 @ 70.3¢
Magic vs. 76ersWon
76ers$3 @ 69.0¢
Will Sergio Perez leave Red Bull?Won
Yes$64 @ 80.3¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$53 @ 11.8¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Won
Yes$200 @ 83.4¢
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open?Lost
Yes$18 @ 24.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$143 @ 63.6¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Lost
Under$57 @ 57.0¢
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Lost
Under$51 @ 51.0¢
"The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?Won
Yes$125 @ 51.1¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Won
Yes$234 @ 78.0¢
Verstappen vs. Norris Won
Norris $290 @ 75.0¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Won
Panama$119 @ 76.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$164 @ 82.0¢
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.9¢
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole?Won
Yes$65 @ 44.7¢
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Won
Yes$66 @ 87.2¢
"Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89?Lost
Yes$6 @ 55.0¢
Blues vs. PenguinsWon
Penguins$4 @ 71.0¢
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?Won
Yes$265 @ 84.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 WinnerWon
FaZe$169 @ 84.3¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?Won
Yes$86 @ 85.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	—	Yes	$3.2k	89.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	—	Yes	$2.5k	92.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.1k	84.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?	—	Yes	$1.6k	92.1¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1.5k	91.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	—	Yes	$1.3k	97.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	82.6¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$549	84.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$469	77.3¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$468	78.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$435	87.0¢
Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$381	93.3¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$370	88.7¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	Yes	$319	42.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$254	72.5¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	—	No	$247	61.9¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?	—	Yes	$222	83.6¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$176	56.0¢
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	Sports	Yes	$149	71.2¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	—	Yes	$148	74.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$141	68.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$134	67.0¢
Spread: Bills (-8.5)	Sports	Jets	$108	54.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	Tech	No	$107	43.0¢
Chargers vs. Ravens	Sports	Ravens	$69	69.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$66	65.6¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	No	$60	60.0¢
Spread: Texans (-2.5)	—	Texans	$52	52.0¢
Cowboys vs. Packers	Sports	Cowboys	$50	50.0¢
UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	—	Alexandre Pantoja	$43	43.0¢

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?—
Yes$3.2k @ 89.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?—
Yes$2.5k @ 92.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.1k @ 84.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?—
Yes$1.6k @ 92.1¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$1.5k @ 91.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?—
Yes$1.3k @ 97.3¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 82.6¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$549 @ 84.5¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$469 @ 77.3¢
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$468 @ 78.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$435 @ 87.0¢
Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$381 @ 93.3¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$370 @ 88.7¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports
Yes$319 @ 42.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$254 @ 72.5¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?—
No$247 @ 61.9¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?—
Yes$222 @ 83.6¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$176 @ 56.0¢
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?Sports
Yes$149 @ 71.2¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?—
Yes$148 @ 74.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$141 @ 68.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$134 @ 67.0¢
Spread: Bills (-8.5)Sports
Jets$108 @ 54.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Tech
No$107 @ 43.0¢
Chargers vs. RavensSports
Ravens$69 @ 69.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$66 @ 65.6¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
No$60 @ 60.0¢
Spread: Texans (-2.5)—
Texans$52 @ 52.0¢
Cowboys vs. PackersSports
Cowboys$50 @ 50.0¢
UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)—
Alexandre Pantoja$43 @ 43.0¢