0x45e8…cc6c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x45e856f0023259664606b6c370e82d072b24cc6c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.1pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

78% @ 69.8¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

711

Avg size

$118

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	70% (131/188)	+12%	188
Politics	84% (27/32)	+21%	32
Sports	50% (4/8)	-66%	8
Tech	100% (2/2)	+24%	2
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+26%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Other188 bets
Hit rate
70% (131/188)
ROI
+12%
Politics32 bets
Hit rate
84% (27/32)
ROI
+21%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-66%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+26%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

71% hit · 167/234

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Rams vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$342	57.0¢	Won
Colts vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$750	83.3¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	$158	69.2¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$489	81.5¢	Lost
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?	No	$344	86.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$149	85.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$273	63.6¢	Won
Avalanche vs. Stars	Stars	$48	48.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$87	29.0¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Rockets	Rockets	$20	50.3¢	Won
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	$88	62.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	No	$747	80.9¢	Won
F1 Hungarian GP: Albon vs. Sainz	Sainz	$113	70.3¢	Won
Magic vs. 76ers	76ers	$3	69.0¢	Won
Will Sergio Perez leave Red Bull?	Yes	$64	80.3¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?	Yes	$53	11.8¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?	Yes	$200	83.4¢	Won
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open?	Yes	$18	24.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$143	63.6¢	Won
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5	Under	$57	57.0¢	Lost
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 247.5	Under	$51	51.0¢	Lost
"The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?	Yes	$125	51.1¢	Won
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?	Yes	$234	78.0¢	Won
Verstappen vs. Norris	Norris	$290	75.0¢	Won
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Panama	$119	76.0¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$164	82.0¢	Won
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60?	Yes	$8	3.9¢	Lost
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole?	Yes	$65	44.7¢	Won
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?	Yes	$66	87.2¢	Won
"Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89?	Yes	$6	55.0¢	Lost
Blues vs. Penguins	Penguins	$4	71.0¢	Won
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?	Yes	$265	84.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner	FaZe	$169	84.3¢	Won
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?	Yes	$86	85.8¢	Won
F1 Hungarian Grand Prix: Ferrari vs. Mercedes	Ferrari	$30	75.0¢	Lost
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	Yes	$76	76.0¢	Lost
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers	St. Louis Cardinals	$39	39.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$340	68.0¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$1.5k	46.4¢	Lost
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?	Yes	$142	81.2¢	Won
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?	Yes	$129	84.9¢	Lost
Cardinals vs. Bengals	Bengals	$570	76.0¢	Won
Raiders vs. Chargers	Chargers	$296	74.0¢	Lost
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup?	Yes	$3	58.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$1.8k	87.2¢	Won
F1 Azerbaijan GP: Piastri vs. Norris	Piastri	$141	51.0¢	Lost
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes	Illinois Fighting Illini	$73	73.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$324	81.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	$81	81.0¢	Won
Patriots vs. Broncos	Patriots	$536	67.0¢	Won

Rams vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$342 @ 57.0¢
Colts vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$750 @ 83.3¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix?Won
Yes$158 @ 69.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$489 @ 81.5¢
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?Won
No$344 @ 86.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$149 @ 85.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$273 @ 63.6¢
Avalanche vs. StarsLost
Stars$48 @ 48.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$87 @ 29.0¢
Knicks vs. RocketsWon
Rockets$20 @ 50.3¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Won
Yes$88 @ 62.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Won
No$747 @ 80.9¢
F1 Hungarian GP: Albon vs. Sainz Won
Sainz $113 @ 70.3¢
Magic vs. 76ersWon
76ers$3 @ 69.0¢
Will Sergio Perez leave Red Bull?Won
Yes$64 @ 80.3¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$53 @ 11.8¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Won
Yes$200 @ 83.4¢
Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2025 US Open?Lost
Yes$18 @ 24.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$143 @ 63.6¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Lost
Under$57 @ 57.0¢
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Lost
Under$51 @ 51.0¢
"The Naked Gun" Rotten Tomatoes score is 90% or higher?Won
Yes$125 @ 51.1¢
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Won
Yes$234 @ 78.0¢
Verstappen vs. Norris Won
Norris $290 @ 75.0¢
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)Won
Panama$119 @ 76.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$164 @ 82.0¢
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.9¢
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole?Won
Yes$65 @ 44.7¢
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Won
Yes$66 @ 87.2¢
"Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 80 and 89?Lost
Yes$6 @ 55.0¢
Blues vs. PenguinsWon
Penguins$4 @ 71.0¢
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024?Won
Yes$265 @ 84.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe - Map 1 WinnerWon
FaZe$169 @ 84.3¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?Won
Yes$86 @ 85.8¢
F1 Hungarian Grand Prix: Ferrari vs. MercedesLost
Ferrari$30 @ 75.0¢
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$76 @ 76.0¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit TigersLost
St. Louis Cardinals$39 @ 39.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$340 @ 68.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 46.4¢
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?Won
Yes$142 @ 81.2¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?Lost
Yes$129 @ 84.9¢
Cardinals vs. BengalsWon
Bengals$570 @ 76.0¢
Raiders vs. ChargersLost
Chargers$296 @ 74.0¢
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 58.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.8k @ 87.2¢
F1 Azerbaijan GP: Piastri vs. NorrisLost
Piastri$141 @ 51.0¢
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa HawkeyesWon
Illinois Fighting Illini$73 @ 73.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$324 @ 81.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Won
No$81 @ 81.0¢
Patriots vs. BroncosWon
Patriots$536 @ 67.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.0k	84.1¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$1.6k	86.7¢
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$1.6k	75.1¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$1.5k	92.6¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$866	86.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$756	79.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Politics	No	$728	91.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$564	94.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$510	85.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$435	87.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$400	80.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$370	88.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$365	73.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$345	69.0¢
Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 47.5	Sports	Over	$265	53.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$254	72.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$186	51.5¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$176	56.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$156	78.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$141	68.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$134	67.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$107	53.7¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$72	89.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$66	65.6¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Politics	No	$60	60.0¢
Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?	Sports	Yes	$19	21.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	8.4¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$4.0k @ 84.1¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$1.6k @ 86.7¢
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Sports
Yes$1.6k @ 75.1¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$1.5k @ 92.6¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$866 @ 86.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$756 @ 79.6¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
No$728 @ 91.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$564 @ 94.0¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$510 @ 85.0¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$435 @ 87.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$400 @ 80.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$370 @ 88.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$365 @ 73.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$345 @ 69.0¢
Patriots vs. Bills: O/U 47.5Sports
Over$265 @ 53.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$254 @ 72.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$186 @ 51.5¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$176 @ 56.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$156 @ 78.2¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$141 @ 68.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$134 @ 67.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$107 @ 53.7¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$72 @ 89.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$66 @ 65.6¢
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics
No$60 @ 60.0¢
Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?Sports
Yes$19 @ 21.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 8.4¢