0x3c44…2fff

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3c44552ad4c9e58c3b9efaa9d59a1992680c2fff
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

42% @ 34.8¢

Brier

0.189

Resolved

445

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	49% (38/78)	+21%	78
Other	44% (18/41)	+9%	41
Geopolitics	24% (9/37)	-52%	37
Sports	100% (1/1)	+351%	1

Politics78 bets
Hit rate
49% (38/78)
ROI
+21%
Other41 bets
Hit rate
44% (18/41)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics37 bets
Hit rate
24% (9/37)
ROI
-52%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+351%

Track record

42% hit · 66/157

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$3	52.1¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$1	59.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$4	33.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$6	14.4¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$10	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$4	29.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$1	85.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$1	43.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	32.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$3	19.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$32	57.9¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$74	31.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 23?	Yes	$2	14.9¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?	Yes	$0	7.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$7	45.6¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$1	89.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$18	12.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$17	34.4¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$6	16.9¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	13.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$7	16.6¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$16	11.4¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$4	22.5¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$22	81.8¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$2	18.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$3	23.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$4	10.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$19	22.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?	No	$2	9.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	No	$8	53.1¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$16	61.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$68	24.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?	No	$4	25.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$21	26.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Yes	$4	30.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$6	53.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$1	74.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	$27	36.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	35.4¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$29	56.5¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?	No	$5	19.0¢	Lost

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$3 @ 52.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 33.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$6 @ 14.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$10 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 29.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$1 @ 85.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 32.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$1 @ 25.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$3 @ 19.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$32 @ 57.9¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$74 @ 31.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 23?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 6?Lost
Yes$0 @ 7.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$7 @ 45.6¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$1 @ 89.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 12.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$17 @ 34.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$6 @ 16.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 13.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 16.6¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$16 @ 11.4¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Won
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$4 @ 22.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$22 @ 81.8¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 18.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 23.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 10.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$3 @ 3.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$19 @ 22.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?Lost
No$2 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 53.1¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$16 @ 61.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$68 @ 24.1¢
Will Trump say "Toyota" during Michigan remarks?Lost
No$4 @ 25.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$21 @ 26.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 30.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Won
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 53.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$1 @ 74.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$27 @ 36.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$7 @ 35.4¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$29 @ 56.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?Lost
No$5 @ 19.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$37	57.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$10	25.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	38.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1	47.0¢

US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$37 @ 57.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 38.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1 @ 47.0¢