← Smart money
0x6a83…4c59
SharpEdge
+11.2pp
ROI
+61%
Win rate
44% @ 32.5¢
Brier
0.172
Resolved
4525
Avg size
$101
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 38% (226/597) | +76% | 597 |
| Politics | 22% (12/55) | +18% | 55 |
| Geopolitics | 12% (3/25) | -40% | 25 |
| Sports | 33% (2/6) | +79% | 6 |
| Crypto | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other597 bets
- Hit rate
- 38% (226/597)
- ROI
- +76%
- Politics55 bets
- Hit rate
- 22% (12/55)
- ROI
- +18%
- Geopolitics25 bets
- Hit rate
- 12% (3/25)
- ROI
- -40%
- Sports6 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (2/6)
- ROI
- +79%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
36% hit · 243/684- No$0 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$499 @ 27.7¢
- Yes$4 @ 4.3¢
- Yes$264 @ 66.0¢
- Yes$318 @ 46.8¢
- No$334 @ 34.5¢
- Yes$23 @ 1.2¢
- No$99 @ 58.1¢
- Yes$439 @ 41.4¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 12.0¢
- Yes$135 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$887 @ 40.5¢
- Yes$38 @ 6.3¢
- Yes$30 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$126 @ 63.0¢
- No$42 @ 3.1¢
- Yes$281 @ 57.5¢
- Yes$232 @ 14.5¢
- No$3.7k @ 67.0¢
- Yes$28 @ 11.0¢
- Yes$433 @ 4.6¢
- Yes$70 @ 27.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 7.6¢
- Yes$49 @ 6.9¢
- No$134 @ 4.9¢
- Yes$153 @ 6.6¢
- Yes$8 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$163 @ 27.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 3.0¢
- Yes$451 @ 16.3¢
- Yes$246 @ 74.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
- Yes$240 @ 45.4¢
- No$57 @ 2.8¢
- No$79 @ 39.5¢
- Yes$879 @ 66.7¢
- Yes$695 @ 4.7¢
- Yes$600 @ 30.0¢
- Yes$388 @ 42.9¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 28.0¢
- Yes$447 @ 51.0¢
- Yes$36 @ 71.0¢
- No$552 @ 8.3¢
- Yes$1.2k @ 62.7¢
- Yes$311 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 2.5¢
- No$1.9k @ 8.4¢
- Yes$559 @ 21.2¢
- No$505 @ 45.3¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | Politics | No | $3.3k | 86.0¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $2.8k | 16.9¢ |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Geopolitics | No | $1.7k | 21.1¢ |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $1.4k | 22.4¢ |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1.3k | 49.3¢ |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | Politics | Yes | $1.1k | 10.8¢ |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $340 | 14.0¢ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Politics | Yes | $300 | 9.0¢ |
| Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? | Geopolitics | Yes | $18 | 6.9¢ |
- Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsNo$3.3k @ 86.0¢
- Yes$2.8k @ 16.9¢
- No$1.7k @ 21.1¢
- Yes$1.4k @ 22.4¢
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?PoliticsYes$1.3k @ 49.3¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 10.8¢
- Yes$340 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$300 @ 9.0¢
- Yes$18 @ 6.9¢