0x0c97…1b68

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0c97325a81ad05c6b58ae30d12eaaec1b8451b68
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-9.1pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

48% @ 57.1¢

Brier

0.290

Resolved

1267

Avg size

$59

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (20/50)	+10%	50
Politics	18% (2/11)	-47%	11
Tech	75% (3/4)	+36%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+165%	1

Other50 bets
Hit rate
40% (20/50)
ROI
+10%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
18% (2/11)
ROI
-47%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+36%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+165%

Track record

38% hit · 26/69

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bessent's remarks not air?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?	No	$339	54.2¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	No	$1.3k	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$79	85.1¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 10?	Yes	$8	0.3¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	$381	76.0¢	Won
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	No	$61	87.1¢	Won
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$56	1.6¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$154	12.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$65	37.0¢	Won
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$19	9.0¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?	No	$23	9.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$152	75.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Coward" in March?	No	$16	64.0¢	Won
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$1.2k	53.3¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$8	4.1¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	$79	51.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$328	65.6¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?	Yes	$289	12.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	$943	6.2¢	Lost
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$74	19.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	3.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$86	1.7¢	Lost
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?	Yes	$160	53.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$390	39.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$452	62.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$19	18.7¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$1.2k	41.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$3.1k	16.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$140	14.0¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?	No	$13	81.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	$8	16.0¢	Lost
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?	No	$7.2k	86.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?	Yes	$17	1.2¢	Lost
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?	No	$26.8k	84.2¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$370	37.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$300	60.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$322	53.9¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?	No	$1.5k	56.5¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April?	Yes	$92	4.6¢	Lost
Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$1.6k	60.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$670	67.0¢	Lost
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 7, 2026?	No	$615	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Little Rocket Man" in March?	No	$23	88.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$40	2.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$500	25.0¢	Won
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?	Kai	$430	14.8¢	Lost
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?	No	$18.8k	58.2¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 16, 2026?	No	$14	46.0¢	Lost

Will Bessent's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?Won
No$339 @ 54.2¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Won
No$1.3k @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$79 @ 85.1¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 10?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?Won
Yes$381 @ 76.0¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Won
No$61 @ 87.1¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$56 @ 1.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$154 @ 12.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$65 @ 37.0¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 9.0¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?Lost
No$23 @ 9.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$152 @ 75.8¢
Will Trump say "Coward" in March?Won
No$16 @ 64.0¢
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$1.2k @ 53.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.1¢
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?Won
No$79 @ 51.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$328 @ 65.6¢
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?Lost
Yes$289 @ 12.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$943 @ 6.2¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 19.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$86 @ 1.7¢
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?Won
Yes$160 @ 53.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$390 @ 39.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$452 @ 62.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 18.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$1.2k @ 41.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 16.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$140 @ 14.0¢
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?Won
No$13 @ 81.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 16.0¢
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?Won
No$7.2k @ 86.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.2¢
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?Lost
No$26.8k @ 84.2¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$370 @ 37.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$300 @ 60.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$322 @ 53.9¢
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?Lost
No$1.5k @ 56.5¢
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April?Lost
Yes$92 @ 4.6¢
Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$1.6k @ 60.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$670 @ 67.0¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 7, 2026?Won
No$615 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump say "Little Rocket Man" in March?Won
No$23 @ 88.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 2.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$500 @ 25.0¢
Will Kai or Speed have more in-game deaths?Lost
Kai$430 @ 14.8¢
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading?Won
No$18.8k @ 58.2¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 16, 2026?Lost
No$14 @ 46.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$19.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$19.0k	50.0¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	Politics	No	$2.6k	88.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$1.3k	50.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$964	24.1¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$880	14.7¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$846	75.4¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	Yes	$449	7.5¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Tech	No	$420	25.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$385	77.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Crypto	No	$365	18.2¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$348	58.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$315	63.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$282	9.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$250	25.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$220	22.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$214	16.5¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$201	95.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$200	99.8¢
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$199	99.7¢
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$199	99.4¢
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$199	99.4¢
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$198	99.0¢
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$198	98.8¢
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$197	98.6¢
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$197	98.6¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$195	97.6¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$195	97.6¢
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$194	97.2¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$193	96.7¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$19.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$19.0k @ 50.0¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?Politics
No$2.6k @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$1.3k @ 50.3¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$964 @ 24.1¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$880 @ 14.7¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$846 @ 75.4¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
Yes$449 @ 7.5¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Tech
No$420 @ 25.3¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$385 @ 77.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Crypto
No$365 @ 18.2¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$348 @ 58.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$315 @ 63.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$282 @ 9.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$250 @ 25.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$220 @ 22.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Business
Yes$214 @ 16.5¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$201 @ 95.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$200 @ 99.8¢
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$199 @ 99.7¢
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$199 @ 99.4¢
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$199 @ 99.4¢
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$198 @ 99.0¢
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$198 @ 98.8¢
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$197 @ 98.6¢
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$197 @ 98.6¢
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$195 @ 97.6¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$195 @ 97.6¢
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$194 @ 97.2¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$193 @ 96.7¢