0x0c97…1b68

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x0c97325a81ad05c6b58ae30d12eaaec1b8451b68
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-6.1pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

43% @ 49.5¢

Brier

0.252

Resolved

1367

Avg size

$60

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	8% (29/350)	-17%	350
Politics	54% (22/41)	-8%	41
Tech	50% (6/12)	+96%	12
Culture	67% (2/3)	+99%	3
Business	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other350 bets
Hit rate
8% (29/350)
ROI
-17%
Politics41 bets
Hit rate
54% (22/41)
ROI
-8%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
+96%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+99%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

14% hit · 59/414

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bessent's remarks not air?	Yes	$10	2.0¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?	No	$339	54.2¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	No	$564	88.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$79	85.1¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 10?	Yes	$8	0.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	$381	76.0¢	Won
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	No	$61	87.1¢	Won
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$56	1.6¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$94	7.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$154	12.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$65	37.0¢	Won
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$19	9.0¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?	No	$23	9.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$152	75.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Coward" in March?	No	$16	64.0¢	Won
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 90 and 100 million views on day 1?	No	$118	81.8¢	Won
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 90 and 100 million views on day 1?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	$1.6k	51.7¢	Won
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$1.2k	53.3¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$8	4.1¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	$79	51.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$328	65.6¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?	Yes	$289	12.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	$943	6.2¢	Lost
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$74	19.5¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	3.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$86	1.7¢	Lost
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$6	62.0¢	Lost
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?	Yes	$160	53.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$390	39.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$452	62.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$19	18.7¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$1.2k	41.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$3.1k	16.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$140	14.0¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?	No	$13	81.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	$8	16.0¢	Lost
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?	No	$7.1k	86.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?	Yes	$17	1.2¢	Lost
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?	No	$22.8k	83.8¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$370	37.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$300	60.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner	Team Falcons	$4	76.0¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$322	53.9¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?	No	$1.5k	56.5¢	Lost
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April?	Yes	$92	4.6¢	Lost
Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$1.6k	60.3¢	Won
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$451	22.5¢	Won

Will Bessent's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.0¢
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?Won
No$339 @ 54.2¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Won
No$564 @ 88.9¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$79 @ 85.1¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 10?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?Won
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?Won
Yes$381 @ 76.0¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Won
No$61 @ 87.1¢
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$56 @ 1.6¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$94 @ 7.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$154 @ 12.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$65 @ 37.0¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 9.0¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?Lost
No$23 @ 9.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$152 @ 75.8¢
Will Trump say "Coward" in March?Won
No$16 @ 64.0¢
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 90 and 100 million views on day 1?Won
No$118 @ 81.8¢
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look" get between 90 and 100 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesWon
Atlanta Braves$1.6k @ 51.7¢
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$1.2k @ 53.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.1¢
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?Won
No$79 @ 51.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$328 @ 65.6¢
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?Lost
Yes$289 @ 12.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$943 @ 6.2¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 19.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$86 @ 1.7¢
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$6 @ 62.0¢
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?Won
Yes$160 @ 53.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$390 @ 39.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$452 @ 62.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 18.7¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$1.2k @ 41.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 16.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$140 @ 14.0¢
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?Won
No$13 @ 81.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$8 @ 16.0¢
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading?Won
No$7.1k @ 86.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.2¢
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?Lost
No$22.8k @ 83.8¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$370 @ 37.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$300 @ 60.0¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 WinnerWon
Team Falcons$4 @ 76.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$322 @ 53.9¢
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?Lost
No$1.5k @ 56.5¢
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April?Lost
Yes$92 @ 4.6¢
Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$1.6k @ 60.3¢
Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?Won
Yes$451 @ 22.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$2.8k	63.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: November	—	No	$2.6k	18.8¢
Will another company be accused of insider trading?	—	Yes	$2.3k	17.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?	—	No	$1.8k	35.7¢
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?	—	No	$1.5k	56.5¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs	—	TEAM VISION	$1.1k	56.0¢
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human?	—	No	$968	52.7¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Politics	Yes	$914	46.5¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?	—	Yes	$832	16.5¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	—	No	$801	23.8¢
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January 31?	—	No	$800	80.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	—	Yes	$799	6.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	—	No	$677	42.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$670	67.0¢
Google Trends Parlay	—	Yes	$562	16.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition	—	No	$537	16.8¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?	—	Yes	$527	60.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$520	8.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: September	—	No	$505	8.7¢
Joe Biden book deal in 2025?	—	No	$490	15.5¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	—	No	$490	24.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?	—	Yes	$475	55.5¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?	—	Yes	$444	29.8¢
Will Trump praise al-Sharaa on Monday?	—	No	$431	45.6¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$402	22.4¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	No	$370	37.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?	—	No	$366	35.0¢
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?	—	Yes	$347	51.4¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Politics	Yes	$328	65.6¢
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$327	32.8¢

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?—
Yes$2.8k @ 63.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: November—
No$2.6k @ 18.8¢
Will another company be accused of insider trading?—
Yes$2.3k @ 17.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?—
No$1.8k @ 35.7¢
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?—
No$1.5k @ 56.5¢
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs—
TEAM VISION$1.1k @ 56.0¢
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human?—
No$968 @ 52.7¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Politics
Yes$914 @ 46.5¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET?—
Yes$832 @ 16.5¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?—
No$801 @ 23.8¢
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January 31?—
No$800 @ 80.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?—
Yes$799 @ 6.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?—
No$677 @ 42.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$670 @ 67.0¢
Google Trends Parlay—
Yes$562 @ 16.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition—
No$537 @ 16.8¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?—
Yes$527 @ 60.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$520 @ 8.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: September—
No$505 @ 8.7¢
Joe Biden book deal in 2025?—
No$490 @ 15.5¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?—
No$490 @ 24.5¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?—
Yes$475 @ 55.5¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?—
Yes$444 @ 29.8¢
Will Trump praise al-Sharaa on Monday?—
No$431 @ 45.6¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$402 @ 22.4¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
No$370 @ 37.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Maduro" at least ten times during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?—
No$366 @ 35.0¢
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?—
Yes$347 @ 51.4¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Politics
Yes$328 @ 65.6¢
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?—
Yes$327 @ 32.8¢