0x8597…daee

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other177 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (123/177)

  ROI

  -1%

• Politics83 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (59/83)

  ROI

  +10%

• Geopolitics27 bets

  Hit rate

  74% (20/27)

  ROI

  +4%

• Sports6 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (3/6)

  ROI

  -9%

• Tech5 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (5/5)

  ROI

  +19%

• Culture3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +49%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +6%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +71%

• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
  Yes$3.1k @ 38.8¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
  No$1.4k @ 73.9¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 76.9¢
• Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?Won
  Yes$91 @ 88.6¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
  No$2.5k @ 85.0¢
• CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Won
  Yes$2.7k @ 78.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$11.5k @ 71.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$20.3k @ 29.5¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
  Yes$259 @ 75.0¢
• US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?Lost
  No$2.3k @ 87.0¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
  No$3.7k @ 83.2¢
• Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$1.7k @ 82.6¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
  No$1.4k @ 89.0¢
• Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
  No$106 @ 5.3¢
• Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.9k @ 57.6¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
  Yes$4.5k @ 82.0¢
• Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?Won
  No$17 @ 83.0¢
• Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$675 @ 45.0¢
• US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
  Yes$7.0k @ 81.6¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$5.1k @ 85.5¢
• Will CME Group (CME) beat quarterly earnings?Won
  Yes$50 @ 83.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
  No$35 @ 55.0¢
• Australian Open Men's: Novak Djokovic vs Jannik SinnerLost
  Sinner$425 @ 85.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$532 @ 84.8¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$4.0k @ 88.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.2k @ 15.0¢
• Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.7k @ 88.1¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$8.0k @ 81.3¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$3.2k @ 85.7¢
• Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?Won
  Yes$1.7k @ 86.0¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 52.4¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
  No$6.3k @ 83.3¢
• Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Lost
  No$2.2k @ 68.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
  No$5.0k @ 62.5¢
• Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
  No$8.2k @ 86.7¢
• Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?Won
  Yes$2.0k @ 89.2¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$8.7k @ 78.4¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
  No$6.0k @ 83.4¢
• Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 4.1¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
  No$21.5k @ 79.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$1.4k @ 6.7¢
• Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Lost
  No$387 @ 21.5¢
• Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.8k @ 84.5¢
• Iran leadership change by March 13?Won
  No$2.4k @ 85.9¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$5.5k @ 88.6¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$10.6k @ 58.5¢
• Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 80.0¢
• Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 88.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Lost
  Yes$101 @ 80.6¢

Current positions

• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$14.0k @ 83.9¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$11.1k @ 75.1¢
• Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$11.0k @ 75.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  Yes$10.7k @ 81.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$6.6k @ 83.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$6.6k @ 65.8¢
• Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$5.8k @ 75.3¢
• Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$5.7k @ 95.3¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$4.8k @ 69.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$4.4k @ 86.9¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
  No$4.3k @ 83.7¢
• Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Politics
  No$3.9k @ 84.5¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$2.2k @ 64.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 78.7¢
• Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?Politics
  No$2.1k @ 90.6¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$2.1k @ 83.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 42.4¢
• Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?Tech
  No$1.2k @ 81.4¢
• OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
  Yes$1.1k @ 25.0¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 69.7¢
• Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$994 @ 85.3¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
  No$524 @ 8.3¢
• Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?Politics
  No$199 @ 89.5¢
• Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  Yes$48 @ 85.0¢
• Trump bans more news outlets from White House by September 30?Politics
  No$32 @ 97.0¢
• Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Other
  No$30 @ 41.0¢
• Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$1 @ 90.0¢