0x8597…daee

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.1pp

ROI

+16%

Win rate

78% @ 65.0¢

Brier

0.148

Resolved

535

Avg size

$356

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	68% (19/28)	+15%	28
Other	62% (13/21)	-9%	21
Tech	100% (1/1)	+35%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+18%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+71%	1

Politics28 bets
Hit rate
68% (19/28)
ROI
+15%
Other21 bets
Hit rate
62% (13/21)
ROI
-9%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+35%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+71%

Track record

67% hit · 35/52

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?	Yes	$91	88.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$11.5k	71.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$13.6k	24.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$259	75.0¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$3.7k	83.2¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$532	84.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	15.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$8.0k	81.3¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$8.2k	86.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$5.5k	88.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$10.6k	58.5¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$2.1k	66.5¢	Lost
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$2.4k	84.5¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	74.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$579	89.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10.4k	31.7¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$2.1k	87.6¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$4.1k	86.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$2.4k	56.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	87.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$1.8k	77.0¢	Won
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$451	88.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$3.6k	89.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$7.5k	79.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$10.1k	77.3¢	Won
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?	No	$1.3k	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$2.5k	78.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	74.0¢	Lost
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$3.1k	88.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	26.0¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$13.9k	80.4¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	36.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	71.5¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$12.7k	86.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$716	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$10.4k	86.5¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	$770	75.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$4.1k	89.7¢	Won
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$8.0k	74.2¢	Won
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$7.8k	75.1¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$2.2k	86.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$106	5.3¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	57.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$101	80.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$9.4k	82.6¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$931	58.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	$1.5k	76.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	$6.0k	64.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$5.3k	33.1¢	Lost

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?Won
Yes$91 @ 88.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$11.5k @ 71.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13.6k @ 24.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$259 @ 75.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$3.7k @ 83.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$532 @ 84.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 15.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$8.0k @ 81.3¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$8.2k @ 86.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$5.5k @ 88.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10.6k @ 58.5¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$2.1k @ 66.5¢
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 84.5¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 74.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$579 @ 89.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10.4k @ 31.7¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 87.6¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 86.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$2.4k @ 56.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 77.0¢
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
Yes$451 @ 88.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 89.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$7.5k @ 79.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$10.1k @ 77.3¢
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?Won
No$1.3k @ 80.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 78.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 74.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$3.1k @ 88.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 26.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$13.9k @ 80.4¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 36.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 71.5¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$12.7k @ 86.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$716 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$10.4k @ 86.5¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?Lost
Yes$770 @ 75.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$4.1k @ 89.7¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
No$8.0k @ 74.2¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
Yes$7.8k @ 75.1¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 86.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$106 @ 5.3¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 57.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$101 @ 80.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$9.4k @ 82.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$931 @ 58.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 76.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$6.0k @ 64.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.3k @ 33.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$21.4k	81.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$8.3k	76.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$7.9k	77.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Politics	No	$7.9k	71.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	Yes	$6.6k	29.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$6.3k	95.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$5.8k	44.5¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$5.4k	91.1¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.3k	86.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$4.2k	69.7¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Politics	No	$3.9k	83.3¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3.8k	96.1¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Science	No	$3.7k	94.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	No	$3.6k	44.7¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	—	No	$3.3k	93.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3.2k	79.9¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.1k	57.9¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	62.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$961	78.0¢
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Sports	Yes	$953	7.3¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Politics	No	$873	92.4¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$713	83.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	No	$532	84.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	—	Yes	$175	13.0¢
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$25	5.0¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Politics	No	$8	95.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$21.4k @ 81.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$8.3k @ 76.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$7.9k @ 77.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics
No$7.9k @ 71.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
Yes$6.6k @ 29.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$6.3k @ 95.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$5.8k @ 44.5¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$5.4k @ 91.1¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$4.3k @ 86.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$4.2k @ 69.7¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Politics
No$3.9k @ 83.3¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$3.8k @ 96.1¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Science
No$3.7k @ 94.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
No$3.6k @ 44.7¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?—
No$3.3k @ 93.0¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$3.2k @ 79.9¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$3.1k @ 57.9¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 62.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$961 @ 78.0¢
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Sports
Yes$953 @ 7.3¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Politics
No$873 @ 92.4¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
No$713 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Politics
No$532 @ 84.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?—
Yes$175 @ 13.0¢
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$25 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?Politics
No$8 @ 95.9¢