0x8597…daee

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+44.5pp

ROI

+67%

Win rate

94% @ 49.6¢

Brier

0.270

Resolved

136

Avg size

$278

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	69% (20/29)	+18%	29
Other	59% (13/22)	+1%	22
Tech	100% (1/1)	+35%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+18%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+71%	1

Politics29 bets
Hit rate
69% (20/29)
ROI
+18%
Other22 bets
Hit rate
59% (13/22)
ROI
+1%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+35%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+71%

Track record

67% hit · 36/54

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?	Yes	$91	88.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.0k	25.5¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$3.7k	83.2¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$532	84.8¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$10.6k	58.5¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	74.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8.4k	33.1¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	36.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	$4.1k	89.7¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$2.2k	86.0¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$2.1k	87.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.4k	80.4¢	Won
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	No	$8.0k	74.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.5k	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$905	21.0¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$2.1k	66.5¢	Lost
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$2.4k	84.5¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$579	89.1¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	$770	75.9¢	Lost
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$640	64.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	Yes	$175	13.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$8.0k	81.3¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$8.2k	86.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$5.5k	88.6¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$4.1k	86.2¢	Won
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	$451	88.0¢	Won
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?	No	$1.3k	80.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$781	94.3¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$259	75.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$2.4k	56.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	87.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$1.8k	77.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	Yes	$3.6k	89.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$10.1k	77.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	No	$2.5k	78.9¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	74.0¢	Lost
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$3.1k	88.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	26.0¢	Lost
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$13.9k	80.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	71.5¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$12.7k	86.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$716	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$10.4k	86.5¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$106	5.3¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	57.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?	Yes	$101	80.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$9.4k	82.6¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$931	58.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	$1.5k	76.0¢	Won

Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30?Won
Yes$91 @ 88.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.0k @ 25.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$3.7k @ 83.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$532 @ 84.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$10.6k @ 58.5¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 74.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8.4k @ 33.1¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 36.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Won
No$4.1k @ 89.7¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 86.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 87.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.4k @ 80.4¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
No$8.0k @ 74.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$905 @ 21.0¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$2.1k @ 66.5¢
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 84.5¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$579 @ 89.1¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?Lost
Yes$770 @ 75.9¢
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Lost
Yes$640 @ 64.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Lost
Yes$175 @ 13.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$8.0k @ 81.3¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$8.2k @ 86.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$5.5k @ 88.6¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 86.2¢
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Won
Yes$451 @ 88.0¢
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?Won
No$1.3k @ 80.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$781 @ 94.3¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$259 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$2.4k @ 56.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 87.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 77.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 89.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$10.1k @ 77.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 78.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 74.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$3.1k @ 88.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 26.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$13.9k @ 80.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 71.5¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$12.7k @ 86.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$716 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$10.4k @ 86.5¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$106 @ 5.3¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 57.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$101 @ 80.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$9.4k @ 82.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$931 @ 58.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 76.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$10.7k	81.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$7.3k	86.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$6.2k	70.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	—	Yes	$6.0k	89.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5.8k	72.2¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?	—	No	$5.7k	88.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	—	No	$5.0k	72.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$5.0k	58.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	—	No	$4.8k	86.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.5k	78.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.0k	92.8¢
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.7k	74.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	—	Yes	$3.1k	64.4¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$2.9k	95.1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.6k	90.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	62.5¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.0k	69.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	—	Yes	$1.7k	50.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.6k	57.9¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$1.3k	88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$1.0k	60.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	—	No	$1.0k	64.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	—	Yes	$700	14.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?	—	Yes	$551	13.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	—	No	$306	95.8¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	Politics	No	$118	71.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$10.7k @ 81.0¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?—
No$7.3k @ 86.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
No$6.2k @ 70.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?—
Yes$6.0k @ 89.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5.8k @ 72.2¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?—
No$5.7k @ 88.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?—
No$5.0k @ 72.1¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?—
No$5.0k @ 58.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?—
No$4.8k @ 86.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$4.5k @ 78.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$4.0k @ 92.8¢
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Politics
No$3.7k @ 74.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?—
Yes$3.1k @ 64.4¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?—
No$2.9k @ 95.1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$2.6k @ 90.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 62.5¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$2.0k @ 69.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?—
Yes$1.7k @ 50.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$1.6k @ 57.9¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
No$1.3k @ 88.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?—
No$1.0k @ 60.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?—
No$1.0k @ 64.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?—
Yes$700 @ 14.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?—
Yes$551 @ 13.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?—
No$306 @ 95.8¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Politics
No$118 @ 71.0¢