0xd109…6fa0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd1091712f4ed0e17261feb174f5c080977506fa0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.3pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

22% @ 19.6¢

Brier

0.113

Resolved

4589

Avg size

$93

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	51% (45/89)	+13%	89
Other	45% (30/67)	-19%	67
Geopolitics	25% (4/16)	-48%	16
Sports	40% (4/10)	+75%	10
Tech	38% (3/8)	-35%	8
Culture	100% (2/2)	+56%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+124%	1

Politics89 bets
Hit rate
51% (45/89)
ROI
+13%
Other67 bets
Hit rate
45% (30/67)
ROI
-19%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
25% (4/16)
ROI
-48%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+75%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-35%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+56%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+124%

Track record

46% hit · 89/193

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$15.8k	67.3¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$416	85.0¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$428	50.1¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	Yes	$7.4k	33.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$432	47.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$374	52.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$171	11.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4.5k	60.9¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$286	30.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$1.1k	20.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$55	21.4¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$978	9.5¢	Lost
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$54	33.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$3.2k	64.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	13.3¢	Lost
Will Vance say "Made in America" during his Rocky Mount visit?	Yes	$163	26.7¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	No	$5.4k	88.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$4.4k	69.1¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$522	86.1¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$3	10.5¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$150	0.2¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$3.5k	64.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.8k	51.1¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$2.6k	87.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	$4	29.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$1.8k	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$23	3.6¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$49	39.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	No	$190	53.4¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Sedriques Dumas	$517	32.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$4.4k	66.6¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$265	30.2¢	Won
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	$291	66.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on June 26, 2026?	Yes	$15	60.0¢	Won
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool?	No	$3	67.5¢	Won
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?	Yes	$832	52.3¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$296	8.9¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$686	63.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$3.9k	59.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$720	9.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.3k	44.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$9.0k	85.3¢	Won
Will Vance say "Somali" or "Somalian" during his Rocky Mount visit?	Yes	$28	25.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$350	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$50	9.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$4.4k	72.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	32.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$500	30.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	$4	5.5¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	No	$195	55.0¢	Won

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$15.8k @ 67.3¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$416 @ 85.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$428 @ 50.1¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
Yes$7.4k @ 33.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$432 @ 47.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$374 @ 52.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$171 @ 11.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4.5k @ 60.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$286 @ 30.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 20.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$55 @ 21.4¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$978 @ 9.5¢
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$54 @ 33.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 64.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 13.3¢
Will Vance say "Made in America" during his Rocky Mount visit?Lost
Yes$163 @ 26.7¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Won
No$5.4k @ 88.4¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$4.4k @ 69.1¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$522 @ 86.1¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.5¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$150 @ 0.2¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$3.5k @ 64.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 51.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$2.6k @ 87.7¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" during WHCA Dinner events?Lost
Yes$4 @ 29.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$1.8k @ 86.0¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$23 @ 3.6¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$49 @ 39.3¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
No$190 @ 53.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Lost
Sedriques Dumas$517 @ 32.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$4.4k @ 66.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$265 @ 30.2¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
No$291 @ 66.0¢
Will Donald Trump dance on June 26, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 60.0¢
Will Valve remove Inferno from the Map Pool?Won
No$3 @ 67.5¢
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Won
Yes$832 @ 52.3¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$296 @ 8.9¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$686 @ 63.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$3.9k @ 59.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$720 @ 9.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.3k @ 44.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$9.0k @ 85.3¢
Will Vance say "Somali" or "Somalian" during his Rocky Mount visit?Won
Yes$28 @ 25.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$350 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$4.4k @ 72.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 32.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$500 @ 30.0¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Won
No$195 @ 55.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8.1k	67.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.2k	81.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.5k	92.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$2.0k	22.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	28.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$278	43.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$224	17.7¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$171	23.6¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$139	20.0¢
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Politics	Yes	$63	20.9¢
Trump calls Nicki Minaj hot again in 2026?	Politics	No	$9	76.4¢
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?	Culture	Yes	$5	28.0¢
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$8.1k @ 67.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$5.2k @ 81.2¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$3.5k @ 92.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$2.0k @ 22.2¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 28.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$278 @ 43.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$224 @ 17.7¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
Yes$171 @ 23.6¢
Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics
Yes$139 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Politics
Yes$63 @ 20.9¢
Trump calls Nicki Minaj hot again in 2026?Politics
No$9 @ 76.4¢
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?Culture
Yes$5 @ 28.0¢
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢