0xbf96…9942

Specialization by sphere

• Politics44 bets

  Hit rate

  73% (32/44)

  ROI

  +18%

• Other37 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (22/37)

  ROI

  -20%

• Geopolitics22 bets

  Hit rate

  91% (20/22)

  ROI

  +13%

• Sports4 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (2/4)

  ROI

  +26%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +20%

• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$4.2k @ 78.9¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
  Yes$124 @ 7.5¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
  No$395 @ 85.8¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$5.5k @ 42.1¢
• Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Won
  No$711 @ 88.9¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$804 @ 80.0¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
  Yes$21.6k @ 86.7¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$1.2k @ 80.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$3.1k @ 81.4¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$15.5k @ 86.6¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 5.3¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Won
  No$302 @ 88.0¢
• Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
  No$10 @ 35.8¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$600 @ 60.0¢
• Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$5.6k @ 73.0¢
• Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
  No$2.2k @ 87.7¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
  No$8.1k @ 81.0¢
• Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Won
  No$3.2k @ 56.0¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 5.7¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$2.3k @ 86.3¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
  No$4.9k @ 71.6¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
  No$11.0k @ 65.8¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Won
  No$3.4k @ 87.0¢
• Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Won
  Yes$3 @ 51.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$1000 @ 82.0¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$353 @ 88.7¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
  Yes$18.3k @ 65.7¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 37.3¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$8.9k @ 89.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
  Yes$600 @ 32.0¢
• Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
  Yes$3.3k @ 71.7¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$4.0k @ 69.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$863 @ 38.4¢
• Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$5.0k @ 83.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
  No$31.6k @ 82.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Lost
  Yes$46 @ 9.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
  Yes$1.4k @ 84.8¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
  No$3.5k @ 89.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
  Yes$15.3k @ 79.3¢
• Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Won
  Yes$4.2k @ 83.9¢
• Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
  No$9.6k @ 83.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$29.4k @ 74.8¢
• IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Won
  No$6.8k @ 86.3¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
  No$8.8k @ 88.0¢
• Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?Won
  No$11.6k @ 87.5¢
• Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Lost
  No$1.4k @ 13.8¢
• Will England win on 2026-06-27?Won
  Yes$1.3k @ 86.0¢
• Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Won
  No$430 @ 83.3¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Won
  Yes$102 @ 80.9¢

Current positions

• Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$11.6k @ 91.1¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
  No$9.9k @ 93.7¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$6.2k @ 84.3¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
  Yes$5.3k @ 83.6¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$3.4k @ 82.3¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$3.0k @ 54.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$2.0k @ 86.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$1.9k @ 86.1¢
• Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.8k @ 88.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 83.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Politics
  Yes$1.6k @ 84.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 75.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.3k @ 92.0¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$1.1k @ 47.0¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$1.1k @ 74.9¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$768 @ 44.4¢
• Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$718 @ 91.9¢
• Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? (copy)Geopolitics
  No$708 @ 88.0¢
• Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?Politics
  No$544 @ 93.9¢
• Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?Politics
  No$510 @ 94.8¢
• Total Internet Blackout in Iran by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$443 @ 88.8¢
• Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$424 @ 84.8¢
• Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
  No$309 @ 59.0¢
• Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?—
  No$170 @ 69.5¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$154 @ 81.0¢
• IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Politics
  No$151 @ 65.2¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Politics
  Yes$139 @ 5.2¢
• Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?Geopolitics
  No$125 @ 83.7¢
• Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
  No$100 @ 68.0¢
• Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 23?Geopolitics
  No$94 @ 94.0¢