0xbf96…9942

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics108 bets

  Hit rate

  76% (82/108)

  ROI

  +11%

• Other69 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (38/69)

  ROI

  -17%

• Geopolitics45 bets

  Hit rate

  80% (36/45)

  ROI

  +10%

• Sports4 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (2/4)

  ROI

  +26%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/2)

  ROI

  -100%

• Economy2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +142%

• Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Won
  No$91 @ 89.2¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 6?Won
  No$9 @ 97.0¢
• Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?Lost
  No$604 @ 71.7¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$50 @ 9.0¢
• Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 45.1¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 42.0¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
  Yes$2.1k @ 61.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
  Yes$703 @ 79.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Lost
  No$4.6k @ 13.1¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Lost
  Yes$5.1k @ 96.2¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?Lost
  Yes$696 @ 87.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Lost
  Yes$5.5k @ 78.0¢
• Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31?Won
  No$510 @ 94.8¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Won
  Yes$1.9k @ 96.8¢
• Will Trump say "Burger" in October?Won
  No$5 @ 98.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Won
  Yes$7.0k @ 99.5¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  Yes$1.0k @ 92.0¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Won
  No$4.9k @ 87.9¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Won
  No$7.8k @ 96.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Won
  No$674 @ 59.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Won
  No$2.0k @ 40.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Won
  No$981 @ 63.3¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$7 @ 70.0¢
• U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Won
  Yes$5 @ 99.4¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
  Yes$2.0k @ 86.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.7k @ 83.0¢
• Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$708 @ 88.0¢
• Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Won
  No$1.3k @ 77.0¢
• Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Won
  No$130 @ 65.0¢
• Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.8k @ 88.0¢
• US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by October 31?Won
  No$298 @ 85.0¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Won
  No$134 @ 82.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$7.6k @ 75.6¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 92.0¢
• Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?Won
  Yes$1.0k @ 85.9¢
• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$4.2k @ 78.9¢
• Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Won
  Yes$277 @ 68.9¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$394 @ 81.8¢
• Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
  Yes$124 @ 7.5¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
  No$395 @ 85.8¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
  No$3.7k @ 78.0¢
• Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
  No$84 @ 84.0¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$5.5k @ 42.1¢
• Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Won
  No$711 @ 88.9¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$804 @ 80.0¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
  Yes$21.6k @ 86.7¢
• Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
  No$1.2k @ 80.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.4k @ 88.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$3.1k @ 81.4¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$15.5k @ 86.6¢

Current positions

• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
  No$10.1k @ 89.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$7.3k @ 92.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Geopolitics
  No$6.0k @ 32.9¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
  Yes$5.5k @ 78.0¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
  Yes$5.1k @ 96.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Politics
  No$4.6k @ 13.1¢
• US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
  Yes$4.5k @ 90.2¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$3.2k @ 70.0¢
• Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?Politics
  Yes$2.8k @ 16.1¢
• Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
  No$2.6k @ 24.8¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 73.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 82.0¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 61.0¢
• Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Economy
  Yes$2.1k @ 67.8¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.7k @ 87.0¢
• Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Economy
  Yes$1.4k @ 46.1¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$1.1k @ 47.7¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?Geopolitics
  No$1.1k @ 50.5¢
• Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$1.1k @ 45.1¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 37.2¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?—
  Yes$696 @ 87.0¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Politics
  No$640 @ 80.0¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?Politics
  No$607 @ 69.3¢
• Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?—
  No$604 @ 71.7¢
• Will Iran target Qatar by September 15, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$567 @ 35.0¢
• Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
  No$309 @ 59.0¢
• US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
  No$270 @ 77.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$189 @ 60.5¢
• Frontier AI labs announce new joint pacing agreement in 2026?Tech
  No$170 @ 69.5¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Politics
  Yes$139 @ 5.2¢