0x606e…6b3a

Specialization by sphere

• Other134 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (81/134)

  ROI

  -9%

• Politics118 bets

  Hit rate

  68% (80/118)

  ROI

  +19%

• Geopolitics34 bets

  Hit rate

  82% (28/34)

  ROI

  +34%

• Sports2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +81%

• Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$163 @ 81.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
  No$37 @ 37.0¢
• Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
  Yes$458 @ 75.5¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$355 @ 39.4¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
  No$73 @ 87.9¢
• Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
  No$195 @ 87.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$45 @ 69.9¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
  No$1.2k @ 83.3¢
• Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?Won
  No$6 @ 56.0¢
• Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$52 @ 68.8¢
• Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
  No$9 @ 88.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
  Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$226 @ 70.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$210 @ 70.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
  Yes$658 @ 37.0¢
• Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Won
  No$132 @ 38.8¢
• Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
  Yes$280 @ 58.2¢
• Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
  No$69 @ 66.6¢
• Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
• Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
  Yes$436 @ 57.3¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$256 @ 85.3¢
• Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$410 @ 85.7¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
  No$53 @ 88.0¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
  No$75 @ 75.5¢
• Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Won
  No$67 @ 84.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Won
  No$415 @ 88.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$12 @ 46.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$556 @ 86.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$172 @ 85.8¢
• Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?Won
  No$20 @ 85.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$928 @ 58.0¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
  No$45 @ 89.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$2.0k @ 80.8¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 11.0¢
• Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
  No$22 @ 80.7¢
• France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
  No$42 @ 87.8¢
• Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
  No$1 @ 18.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
  No$272 @ 82.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 14.0¢
• Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026?Won
  No$13 @ 67.0¢
• Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
  No$80 @ 24.4¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$173 @ 71.6¢
• European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
  No$4.5k @ 72.7¢
• European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
  Yes$54 @ 17.9¢
• U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Won
  No$391 @ 74.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$261 @ 87.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
  No$22 @ 73.0¢
• Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 6.3¢
• Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
  No$996 @ 85.9¢

Current positions

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
  No$3.2k @ 95.9¢
• U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Politics
  No$1.1k @ 86.1¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$1.0k @ 91.9¢
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$639 @ 91.3¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics
  No$577 @ 77.0¢
• European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Politics
  No$486 @ 89.1¢
• Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$479 @ 95.8¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$445 @ 82.8¢
• Iran leadership change by October 31?Politics
  No$398 @ 95.0¢
• Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$376 @ 94.0¢
• Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$300 @ 96.6¢
• Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$243 @ 81.0¢
• Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$239 @ 85.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$230 @ 76.7¢
• Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Politics
  No$227 @ 90.6¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$203 @ 86.3¢
• Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$176 @ 88.0¢
• Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$136 @ 53.2¢
• NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$135 @ 90.0¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$129 @ 86.3¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
  No$123 @ 83.9¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$115 @ 79.4¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$106 @ 65.1¢
• NATO troops fighting in Yemen before 2027?Politics
  No$105 @ 95.7¢
• Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
  No$100 @ 91.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 85.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$68 @ 68.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$64 @ 64.0¢
• Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics
  Yes$57 @ 31.7¢
• Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$41 @ 30.0¢