0xbd8a…f9bd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbd8a9c8bb1141d3d59b55e6d15a4e42e8bbef9bd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

71% @ 66.8¢

Brier

0.151

Resolved

840

Avg size

$48

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	62% (171/275)	+23%	275
Politics	75% (60/80)	+9%	80
Sports	80% (36/45)	-9%	45
Geopolitics	100% (11/11)	+21%	11
Crypto	80% (8/10)	+23%	10
Economy	50% (1/2)	-84%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other275 bets
Hit rate
62% (171/275)
ROI
+23%
Politics80 bets
Hit rate
75% (60/80)
ROI
+9%
Sports45 bets
Hit rate
80% (36/45)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
100% (11/11)
ROI
+21%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
80% (8/10)
ROI
+23%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-84%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

68% hit · 287/424

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	Yes	$9	18.0¢	Lost
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Over	$19	77.2¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	No	$42	78.4¢	Lost
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12?	Yes	$5	47.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$5	45.0¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$10	24.0¢	Lost
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	Yes	$2	20.9¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$31	63.0¢	Won
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	29.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$20	65.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$42	83.0¢	Lost
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	$27	54.0¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$10	25.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$31	62.0¢	Won
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	Yes	$1	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?	No	$1	87.0¢	Won
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	$8	76.0¢	Won
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-02-19?	Yes	$9	89.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$20	80.7¢	Won
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$4	85.0¢	Won
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-02-13?	No	$43	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$324	86.0¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$21	83.0¢	Won
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	Yes	$96	73.7¢	Won
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5	Over	$32	80.7¢	Lost
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 3.5	Under	$7	73.0¢	Won
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?	Yes	$6	57.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$3	25.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	Yes	$20	81.4¢	Won
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score	No	$1	44.0¢	Won
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-12?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Lost
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	No	$86	86.0¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$32	63.0¢	Lost
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$9	86.0¢	Lost
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$20	79.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$74	72.8¢	Won
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$17	86.6¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$6	56.5¢	Won
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5	Under	$13	67.0¢	Lost
Levante UD vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$5	53.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$823	79.5¢	Won
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$17	68.0¢	Won
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$1	63.0¢	Lost
1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5	Over	$6	60.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	No	$1.6k	32.4¢	Won
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?	No	$11	70.0¢	Won

Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 18.0¢
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5Won
Over$19 @ 77.2¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?Lost
No$42 @ 78.4¢
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12?Lost
Yes$5 @ 47.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 45.0¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Lost
No$10 @ 24.0¢
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?Won
Yes$2 @ 20.9¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$31 @ 63.0¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$2 @ 29.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$20 @ 65.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$42 @ 83.0¢
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Lost
No$27 @ 54.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$10 @ 25.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$31 @ 62.0¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?Won
No$1 @ 87.0¢
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?Won
Yes$8 @ 76.0¢
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2026-02-19?Won
Yes$9 @ 89.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$20 @ 80.7¢
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$4 @ 85.0¢
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-02-13?Won
No$43 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$324 @ 86.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$21 @ 83.0¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Won
Yes$96 @ 73.7¢
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$32 @ 80.7¢
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 3.5Won
Under$7 @ 73.0¢
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 740k+ BTC by February 28?Lost
Yes$6 @ 57.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 25.0¢
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?Won
Yes$20 @ 81.4¢
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to ScoreWon
No$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-03-12?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
No$86 @ 86.0¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$32 @ 63.0¢
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$9 @ 86.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$20 @ 79.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$74 @ 72.8¢
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
Yes$17 @ 86.6¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$6 @ 56.5¢
SSC Napoli vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$13 @ 67.0¢
Levante UD vs. Valencia CF: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$5 @ 53.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$823 @ 79.5¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$17 @ 68.0¢
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢
1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Won
Over$6 @ 60.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?Won
No$1.6k @ 32.4¢
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Won
No$11 @ 70.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$7.0k	93.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$4.1k	82.9¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$3.5k	88.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	48.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$1.7k	83.1¢
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?	Politics	No	$1.4k	97.2¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	85.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	35.3¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$914	91.4¢
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$883	88.4¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$877	87.2¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$698	93.0¢
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Dec 31?	Politics	No	$569	78.2¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$514	85.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$445	89.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$442	88.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$404	80.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$399	79.0¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	Politics	No	$358	89.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$354	88.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the Texas Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$302	94.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$299	96.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$295	98.2¢
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	Politics	No	$252	88.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$233	93.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?	Politics	No	$222	88.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$221	88.1¢
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$214	85.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$210	83.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$209	83.5¢

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$7.0k @ 93.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$4.1k @ 82.9¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$3.5k @ 88.5¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$1.7k @ 48.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$1.7k @ 83.1¢
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?Politics
No$1.4k @ 97.2¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 85.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$1.2k @ 35.3¢
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$914 @ 91.4¢
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?Politics
No$883 @ 88.4¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$877 @ 87.2¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$698 @ 93.0¢
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Dec 31?Politics
No$569 @ 78.2¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Politics
Yes$514 @ 85.0¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$445 @ 89.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$442 @ 88.4¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$404 @ 80.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$399 @ 79.0¢
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?Politics
No$358 @ 89.5¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$354 @ 88.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the Texas Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$302 @ 94.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$299 @ 96.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$295 @ 98.2¢
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?Politics
No$252 @ 88.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$233 @ 93.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?Politics
No$222 @ 88.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$221 @ 88.1¢
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$214 @ 85.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$210 @ 83.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$209 @ 83.5¢