0xc5bd…ceaa

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics245 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (129/245)

  ROI

  +14%

• Other107 bets

  Hit rate

  51% (55/107)

  ROI

  +25%

• Geopolitics66 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (36/66)

  ROI

  +12%

• Sports40 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (21/40)

  ROI

  +128%

• Crypto18 bets

  Hit rate

  56% (10/18)

  ROI

  +21%

• Tech13 bets

  Hit rate

  46% (6/13)

  ROI

  +11%

• Culture9 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (3/9)

  ROI

  -91%

• Economy3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  -40%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +174%

• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 32.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Won
  No$73 @ 93.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Lost
  No$31 @ 12.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
  No$24 @ 26.7¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
  Yes$73 @ 73.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Won
  Yes$20 @ 52.6¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
  Yes$121 @ 36.2¢
• Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Lost
  No$5 @ 10.7¢
• Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$25 @ 75.4¢
• Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 57.5¢
• Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Won
  Yes$8 @ 56.3¢
• Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Won
  No$9 @ 93.0¢
• Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Won
  No$79 @ 97.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
  Yes$340 @ 68.0¢
• Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Won
  No$17 @ 85.0¢
• Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Won
  No$12 @ 97.2¢
• Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 32.4¢
• Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Won
  No$19 @ 93.8¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Won
  Yes$34 @ 68.0¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
  No$69 @ 88.4¢
• Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
  Yes$115 @ 96.4¢
• Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Won
  Yes$6 @ 82.0¢
• Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Won
  No$6 @ 90.3¢
• Will there be no Hormuz agreement?Won
  Yes$9 @ 93.8¢
• Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Won
  No$50 @ 90.6¢
• Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?Lost
  Yes$9 @ 7.1¢
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?Lost
  Yes$22 @ 6.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Won
  No$11 @ 27.5¢
• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Lost
  Yes$44 @ 73.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Lost
  Yes$42 @ 56.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
  No$14 @ 22.8¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Lost
  Yes$14 @ 62.8¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Won
  No$16 @ 40.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 56.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Won
  No$22 @ 54.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Won
  No$13 @ 66.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Lost
  Yes$17 @ 25.8¢
• Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$58 @ 92.7¢
• Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
  Yes$10 @ 96.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 46.0¢
• Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
  No$10 @ 26.5¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Won
  No$35 @ 91.0¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Won
  No$4 @ 56.7¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Lost
  Yes$47 @ 47.0¢
• Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Won
  No$95 @ 95.0¢
• Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 9.0¢
• Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?Won
  No$32 @ 90.4¢

Current positions

• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
  Yes$828 @ 65.3¢
• Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$373 @ 98.0¢
• Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$232 @ 36.4¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics
  No$214 @ 96.2¢
• US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
  No$192 @ 95.8¢
• Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
  No$163 @ 97.3¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
  Yes$159 @ 60.7¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$144 @ 36.6¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$144 @ 82.9¢
• Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
  No$133 @ 92.0¢
• Israeli Knesset election annulled?Politics
  No$130 @ 97.5¢
• Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Tech
  No$122 @ 74.0¢
• Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
  No$107 @ 96.2¢
• Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$106 @ 70.4¢
• Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?Politics
  No$94 @ 93.5¢
• China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
  Yes$93 @ 26.9¢
• Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
  No$93 @ 89.5¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$92 @ 10.2¢
• Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$91 @ 91.0¢
• Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Tech
  No$83 @ 92.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$82 @ 88.3¢
• Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 79.0¢
• Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
  No$77 @ 91.8¢
• Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto
  No$76 @ 98.0¢
• Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
  No$75 @ 95.8¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?Politics
  Yes$74 @ 24.0¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$73 @ 8.0¢
• Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?Tech
  No$72 @ 83.2¢
• Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
  No$69 @ 93.3¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$65 @ 24.4¢