0xd6dd…98ee

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd6ddc6559313bcc819f1df1b3647f3930da998ee
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

49% @ 44.1¢

Brier

0.221

Resolved

3583

Avg size

$72

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	47% (47/99)	+21%	99
Other	44% (28/64)	+11%	64
Geopolitics	53% (28/53)	+4%	53
Tech	50% (13/26)	+1%	26
Economy	50% (7/14)	+3%	14

Politics99 bets
Hit rate
47% (47/99)
ROI
+21%
Other64 bets
Hit rate
44% (28/64)
ROI
+11%
Geopolitics53 bets
Hit rate
53% (28/53)
ROI
+4%
Tech26 bets
Hit rate
50% (13/26)
ROI
+1%
Economy14 bets
Hit rate
50% (7/14)
ROI
+3%

Track record

48% hit · 123/256

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	No	$293	28.6¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	Yes	$395	59.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$2.5k	54.1¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$209	53.8¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$6.6k	43.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$4.3k	71.1¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$1.4k	62.4¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$4	1.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$93	2.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$4.1k	58.0¢	Won
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	No	$166	7.6¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$11	3.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$3.5k	34.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$7.0k	53.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	$15	75.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$477	35.6¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	No	$194	25.6¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$777	57.8¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$671	39.0¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$818	17.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	No	$80	4.4¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$627	88.2¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$1.3k	33.8¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$2.0k	73.2¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	27.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$66	22.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	No	$30	10.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$662	87.9¢	Won
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	$2.0k	36.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	$1.6k	26.5¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	No	$1.9k	63.8¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$341	50.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$52	1.6¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$258	86.0¢	Won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	No	$155	3.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$465	83.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$42	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$680	73.1¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$612	54.4¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	No	$641	33.9¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	64.2¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$3.6k	68.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$1.5k	31.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$457	53.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$212	7.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	71.1¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$632	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$52	13.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$746	56.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$413	25.4¢	Lost

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Won
No$293 @ 28.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?Lost
Yes$395 @ 59.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$2.5k @ 54.1¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$209 @ 53.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$6.6k @ 43.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 71.1¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$1.4k @ 62.4¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$4 @ 1.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$93 @ 2.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$4.1k @ 58.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Lost
No$166 @ 7.6¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 3.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$3.5k @ 34.7¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
Yes$7.0k @ 53.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 75.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$477 @ 35.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Won
No$194 @ 25.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$777 @ 57.8¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$671 @ 39.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$818 @ 17.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Lost
No$80 @ 4.4¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$627 @ 88.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 33.8¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 73.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 27.9¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$66 @ 22.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 10.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Won
Yes$662 @ 87.9¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Lost
No$2.0k @ 36.7¢
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 26.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Won
No$1.9k @ 63.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$341 @ 50.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$52 @ 1.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$258 @ 86.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Lost
No$155 @ 3.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$465 @ 83.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$42 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$680 @ 73.1¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$612 @ 54.4¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Lost
No$641 @ 33.9¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 64.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 68.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$1.5k @ 31.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$457 @ 53.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$212 @ 7.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 71.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$632 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$52 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$746 @ 56.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$413 @ 25.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.8k	80.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.5k	83.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.2k	52.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$2.0k	47.3¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$1.1k	71.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$800	18.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$695	92.3¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	Yes	$606	50.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$534	89.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	No	$510	17.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$426	22.8¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$373	75.8¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$357	40.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$344	86.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$335	83.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$335	83.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$330	82.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$327	88.4¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$306	82.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$264	66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	No	$236	53.4¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$208	69.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$205	46.4¢
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$194	86.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$181	60.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$140	35.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	Politics	No	$96	33.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	No	$90	28.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$83	20.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$72	17.9¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3.8k @ 80.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.5k @ 83.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$2.2k @ 52.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$2.0k @ 47.3¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$1.1k @ 71.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$800 @ 18.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$695 @ 92.3¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
Yes$606 @ 50.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$534 @ 89.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
No$510 @ 17.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$426 @ 22.8¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$373 @ 75.8¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$357 @ 40.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$344 @ 86.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$335 @ 83.8¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$335 @ 83.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$330 @ 82.4¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$327 @ 88.4¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$306 @ 82.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$264 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
No$236 @ 53.4¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$208 @ 69.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$205 @ 46.4¢
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$194 @ 86.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$181 @ 60.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$140 @ 35.0¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Politics
No$96 @ 33.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
No$90 @ 28.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$83 @ 20.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$72 @ 17.9¢