0x5eda…92a7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5eda0d6cb641a76098e5cb3c9c76e57f3ecd92a7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+12.9pp

ROI

+53%

Win rate

57% @ 43.9¢

Brier

0.223

Resolved

1146

Avg size

$30

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	46% (41/90)	+80%	90
Other	60% (44/73)	+16%	73
Geopolitics	55% (12/22)	-3%	22
Sports	50% (4/8)	-14%	8
Culture	20% (1/5)	-71%	5
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+74%	3
Science	100% (1/1)	+18%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+88%	1

Politics90 bets
Hit rate
46% (41/90)
ROI
+80%
Other73 bets
Hit rate
60% (44/73)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
55% (12/22)
ROI
-3%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-14%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-71%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+74%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+88%

Track record

52% hit · 106/203

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	$99	99.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$452	85.9¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$497	54.8¢	Won
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$282	70.5¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$325	53.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$254	84.7¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$472	76.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$488	40.2¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$90	74.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$146	18.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$475	19.2¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$250	54.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$13	72.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	58.9¢	Won
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?	Yes	$493	13.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	77.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$1.8k	73.6¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$17	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	$49	60.0¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$38	64.0¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$118	84.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$170	85.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$81	81.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$49	49.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$150	50.0¢	Lost
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?	No	$410	87.7¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$142	40.7¢	Lost
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	Yes	$86	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$193	80.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$35	34.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$752	68.1¢	Won
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	$381	77.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$293	6.5¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$14	53.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$182	82.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$357	84.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$756	49.7¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$871	79.2¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Yes	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal to 2.1%?	Yes	$7	53.3¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$232	79.8¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$289	86.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	$137	68.5¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$230	54.7¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$356	21.8¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$1.1k	74.1¢	Lost

Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Won
No$99 @ 99.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$452 @ 85.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$497 @ 54.8¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$282 @ 70.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$325 @ 53.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$254 @ 84.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$472 @ 76.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$488 @ 40.2¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$90 @ 74.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$146 @ 18.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$475 @ 19.2¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$250 @ 54.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 58.9¢
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?Lost
Yes$493 @ 13.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 77.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$1.8k @ 73.6¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$17 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
No$49 @ 60.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$38 @ 64.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$118 @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$170 @ 85.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$81 @ 81.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$49 @ 49.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$150 @ 50.0¢
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026?Won
No$410 @ 87.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$142 @ 40.7¢
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?Won
Yes$86 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$193 @ 80.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 34.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$752 @ 68.1¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?Lost
Yes$381 @ 77.5¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$293 @ 6.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 53.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$182 @ 82.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$357 @ 84.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$756 @ 49.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$871 @ 79.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Won
Yes$85 @ 85.0¢
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal to 2.1%?Won
Yes$7 @ 53.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Won
No$232 @ 79.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$289 @ 86.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$137 @ 68.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$230 @ 54.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$356 @ 21.8¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$1.1k @ 74.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.7k	93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$756	84.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	—	No	$707	84.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$690	98.6¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$566	94.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$561	93.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	—	No	$500	90.9¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$476	76.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$419	83.8¢
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$298	99.4¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$291	97.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	—	No	$274	91.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$269	9.6¢
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	Politics	No	$182	91.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$160	72.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$156	78.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$120	60.0¢
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	Politics	No	$96	96.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	No	$83	83.0¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$75	2.5¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	—	Yes	$75	93.7¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$27	27.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$26	13.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$23	36.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?	—	Yes	$10	96.0¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$1.7k @ 93.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$756 @ 84.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?—
No$707 @ 84.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$690 @ 98.6¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$566 @ 94.3¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$561 @ 93.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?—
No$500 @ 90.9¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$476 @ 76.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$419 @ 83.8¢
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$298 @ 99.4¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$291 @ 97.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?—
No$274 @ 91.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$269 @ 9.6¢
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Politics
No$182 @ 91.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$160 @ 72.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$120 @ 60.0¢
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?Politics
No$96 @ 96.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
No$83 @ 83.0¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$75 @ 2.5¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?—
Yes$75 @ 93.7¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
Yes$27 @ 27.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$26 @ 13.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$23 @ 36.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?—
Yes$10 @ 96.0¢