0x5eda…92a7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5eda0d6cb641a76098e5cb3c9c76e57f3ecd92a7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.7pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

45% @ 38.6¢

Brier

0.158

Resolved

2403

Avg size

$43

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	50% (63/127)	+27%	127
Other	60% (73/122)	+11%	122
Geopolitics	65% (26/40)	-9%	40
Sports	50% (4/8)	-14%	8
Culture	20% (1/5)	-77%	5
Crypto	67% (2/3)	-0%	3
Tech	100% (2/2)	+6%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+18%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+88%	1

Politics127 bets
Hit rate
50% (63/127)
ROI
+27%
Other122 bets
Hit rate
60% (73/122)
ROI
+11%
Geopolitics40 bets
Hit rate
65% (26/40)
ROI
-9%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-14%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-77%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-0%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+6%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+88%

Track record

56% hit · 173/309

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?	No	$190	95.0¢	Won
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$91	84.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	$0	1.8¢	Lost
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	No	$509	87.7¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$366	85.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$497	54.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$503	13.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$48	8.0¢	Lost
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$129	79.0¢	Won
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$732	81.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$253	66.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$252	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.5k	16.8¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$282	70.5¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$325	53.5¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$400	61.1¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$254	84.7¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$472	76.0¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Clippers	Clippers	$6	61.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$10	61.9¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$79	76.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$488	40.2¢	Lost
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$9	88.4¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$90	74.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$146	18.2¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$475	19.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$93	46.5¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$195	54.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$249	2.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$13	72.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.0k	57.4¢	Won
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?	Yes	$493	13.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$488	87.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.1k	77.2¢	Won
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$102	50.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$674	88.1¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$1.8k	73.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	$9	9.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	$8	2.6¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$900	83.8¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$220	55.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	$210	75.8¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3?	Yes	$60	33.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	Yes	$10	1.3¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$1.5k	86.3¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$114	9.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	$46	29.0¢	Won

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31?Won
No$190 @ 95.0¢
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$91 @ 84.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.8¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Won
No$509 @ 87.7¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$366 @ 85.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$497 @ 54.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$503 @ 13.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$48 @ 8.0¢
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$129 @ 79.0¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$732 @ 81.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$253 @ 66.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$252 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.5k @ 16.8¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$282 @ 70.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$325 @ 53.5¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$400 @ 61.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$254 @ 84.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$472 @ 76.0¢
Warriors vs. ClippersWon
Clippers$6 @ 61.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$10 @ 61.9¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$79 @ 76.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$488 @ 40.2¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$9 @ 88.4¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$90 @ 74.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$146 @ 18.2¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$475 @ 19.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$93 @ 46.5¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$195 @ 54.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$249 @ 2.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$13 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 57.4¢
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?Lost
Yes$493 @ 13.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$488 @ 87.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 77.2¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$102 @ 50.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$674 @ 88.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$1.8k @ 73.6¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$900 @ 83.8¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$220 @ 55.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Won
No$210 @ 75.8¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3?Won
Yes$60 @ 33.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$1.5k @ 86.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$114 @ 9.2¢
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?Won
No$46 @ 29.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.7k	93.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$1.1k	86.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$756	84.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$692	92.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$566	94.3¢
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?	Politics	No	$482	96.4¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$419	83.8¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$281	9.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$274	91.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$200	76.1¢
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?	Politics	No	$182	91.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$156	78.0¢
Will Trump say "Burger" in October?	Politics	Yes	$153	16.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$120	60.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$110	44.1¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$88	44.0¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$75	2.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$27	27.0¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$1.7k @ 93.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$1.1k @ 86.6¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$756 @ 84.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$692 @ 92.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$566 @ 94.3¢
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?Politics
No$482 @ 96.4¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$419 @ 83.8¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$281 @ 9.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$274 @ 91.3¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$200 @ 76.1¢
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Politics
No$182 @ 91.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump say "Burger" in October?Politics
Yes$153 @ 16.7¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$120 @ 60.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$110 @ 44.1¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$88 @ 44.0¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$75 @ 2.5¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
Yes$27 @ 27.0¢