0x1181…9e90

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x118198f684bd3a6c2f4b40d97fd308141be29e90
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.2pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

64% @ 57.8¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

806

Avg size

$157

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (47/85)	+14%	85
Politics	52% (16/31)	-8%	31
Sports	52% (11/21)	-9%	21
Geopolitics	50% (3/6)	+31%	6

Other85 bets
Hit rate
55% (47/85)
ROI
+14%
Politics31 bets
Hit rate
52% (16/31)
ROI
-8%
Sports21 bets
Hit rate
52% (11/21)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+31%

Track record

54% hit · 77/143

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Uber # of trips above 3.4B in Q1?	Yes	$357	86.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?	No	$7	70.0¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$713	89.1¢	Won
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$6	0.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	21.9¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$1.3k	79.7¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$33	66.0¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$637	31.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$1.0k	77.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$1.6k	46.8¢	Won
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	No	$441	75.2¢	Won
Kurds declare independence from Iran?	Yes	$21	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$734	73.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$202	89.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 16?	No	$142	88.3¢	Won
Missouri vs. Mississippi State	Missouri	$350	35.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?	No	$44	43.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	78.0¢	Won
Spread: Oregon (-58.5)	Oregon	$417	51.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$3.1k	78.7¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$7	23.5¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$122	17.3¢	Lost
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?	No	$77	86.0¢	Won
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$44	34.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$41	4.1¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$2.1k	83.4¢	Won
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)	Sedriques Dumas	$160	31.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$43	67.0¢	Lost
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	$1.5k	50.0¢	Won
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	$1.2k	39.4¢	Lost
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	No	$2.6k	86.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$3.8k	77.4¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$430	43.0¢	Lost
UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	Joanderson Brito	$3.9k	78.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026	No	$0	36.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$310	6.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$600	15.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	$1.1k	86.0¢	Won
Valorant: JD Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha	JD Gaming	$48	24.0¢	Lost
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 173.5	Over	$511	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$500	25.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nutjob" in February?	No	$51	83.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$255	51.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)	Ding Meng	$285	57.0¢	Lost
Spread: Notre Dame (-28.5)	Purdue	$38	53.0¢	Lost
Government shutdown on Saturday?	No	$144	72.0¢	Won
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$200	15.5¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?	Yes	$39	6.0¢	Lost
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)	Jaguars	$405	54.0¢	Won

Uber # of trips above 3.4B in Q1?Won
Yes$357 @ 86.7¢
Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday?Won
No$7 @ 70.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$713 @ 89.1¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$6 @ 0.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 21.9¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 79.7¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$33 @ 66.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$637 @ 31.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 77.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.6k @ 46.8¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Won
No$441 @ 75.2¢
Kurds declare independence from Iran?Lost
Yes$21 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$734 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$202 @ 89.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 16?Won
No$142 @ 88.3¢
Missouri vs. Mississippi StateLost
Missouri$350 @ 35.0¢
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Lost
No$44 @ 43.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 78.0¢
Spread: Oregon (-58.5)Won
Oregon$417 @ 51.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$3.1k @ 78.7¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 23.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$122 @ 17.3¢
Uber # of trips above 3.8B in Q1?Won
No$77 @ 86.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$44 @ 34.5¢
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$41 @ 4.1¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$2.1k @ 83.4¢
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Lost
Sedriques Dumas$160 @ 31.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$43 @ 67.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Won
No$1.5k @ 50.0¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 39.4¢
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Won
No$2.6k @ 86.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$3.8k @ 77.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$430 @ 43.0¢
UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims)Won
Joanderson Brito$3.9k @ 78.0¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026Won
No$0 @ 36.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$310 @ 6.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$600 @ 15.0¢
Iran leadership change by March 13?Won
No$1.1k @ 86.0¢
Valorant: JD Gaming vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Group AlphaLost
JD Gaming$48 @ 24.0¢
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 173.5Won
Over$511 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$500 @ 25.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump say "Nutjob" in February?Won
No$51 @ 83.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$255 @ 51.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Cameron Nelson (Welterweight, Prelims)Lost
Ding Meng$285 @ 57.0¢
Spread: Notre Dame (-28.5)Lost
Purdue$38 @ 53.0¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Won
No$144 @ 72.0¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$200 @ 15.5¢
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?Lost
Yes$39 @ 6.0¢
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)Won
Jaguars$405 @ 54.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$5.8k	72.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.8k	66.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.4k	73.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.4k	83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	24.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	67.0¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$1.0k	62.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$950	19.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$730	73.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$671	53.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$520	52.0¢
Spread: Arizona (-7.5)	Sports	Arizona	$495	49.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$423	63.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$420	42.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$375	75.0¢
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 37.5	Sports	Under	$245	49.0¢
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?	Sports	Yes	$160	32.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$84	21.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$69	61.0¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$61	61.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$37	15.0¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$5.8k @ 72.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$4.8k @ 66.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$4.4k @ 73.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$2.4k @ 83.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 24.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 67.0¢
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$1.0k @ 62.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
Yes$950 @ 19.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$730 @ 73.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$671 @ 53.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$520 @ 52.0¢
Spread: Arizona (-7.5)Sports
Arizona$495 @ 49.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$423 @ 63.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$420 @ 42.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$375 @ 75.0¢
Steelers vs. Browns: O/U 37.5Sports
Under$245 @ 49.0¢
Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?Sports
Yes$160 @ 32.0¢
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics
Yes$84 @ 21.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$69 @ 61.0¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
No$61 @ 61.0¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$37 @ 15.0¢