0x7a90…2ff9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7a90bfdb1c7bbb30ab19fdd48a6b49dede972ff9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.1pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

35% @ 30.0¢

Brier

0.179

Resolved

2869

Avg size

$28

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (280/724)	+29%	724
Politics	24% (37/154)	-6%	154
Geopolitics	16% (12/73)	-31%	73
Sports	25% (5/20)	+14%	20
Crypto	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+100%	1

Other724 bets
Hit rate
39% (280/724)
ROI
+29%
Politics154 bets
Hit rate
24% (37/154)
ROI
-6%
Geopolitics73 bets
Hit rate
16% (12/73)
ROI
-31%
Sports20 bets
Hit rate
25% (5/20)
ROI
+14%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+100%

Track record

34% hit · 335/975

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	3.7¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	$16	2.8¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	$19	16.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$60	12.0¢	Lost
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	$96	32.0¢	Won
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	$90	18.0¢	Lost
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	$36	6.2¢	Lost
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?	Yes	$3	2.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	$49	17.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$18	4.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$91	7.0¢	Lost
Will Yashar win 24-25 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$27	4.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	$87	25.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	No	$13	5.0¢	Lost
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	$41	30.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	$16	4.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	$36	18.0¢	Lost
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	$48	9.8¢	Lost
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	$4	9.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$159	18.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$331	22.3¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	$9	5.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	$24	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	No	$21	7.0¢	Lost
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 14, 2026?	Yes	$30	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	No	$32	5.3¢	Lost
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	No	$9	1.0¢	Lost
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?	Yes	$174	58.0¢	Lost
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	Yes	$33	11.2¢	Lost
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	$30	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	$61	17.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	$20	5.0¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	$12	48.0¢	Won
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	$49	2.0¢	Lost
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$5	11.4¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?	Yes	$358	24.8¢	Lost
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	$70	24.7¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-09?	Yes	$20	28.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	Yes	$10	56.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?	Yes	$40	49.7¢	Lost
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-31?	No	$4	65.0¢	Won
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-31?	Yes	$45	64.2¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	No	$19	14.0¢	Lost
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-01?	Yes	$175	89.0¢	Won
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-25?	Yes	$23	73.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?	Yes	$40	39.4¢	Lost

Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.7¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 2.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Lost
No$19 @ 16.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$60 @ 12.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Won
No$96 @ 32.0¢
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Lost
Yes$90 @ 18.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Lost
Yes$36 @ 6.2¢
FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 17.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 4.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$91 @ 7.0¢
Will Yashar win 24-25 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$27 @ 4.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Lost
No$87 @ 25.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Lost
No$13 @ 5.0¢
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in October 2026?Won
Yes$41 @ 30.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Lost
No$16 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Lost
No$36 @ 18.0¢
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?Lost
No$48 @ 9.8¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Lost
No$4 @ 9.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$159 @ 18.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
No$331 @ 22.3¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 5.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Lost
No$24 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Lost
No$21 @ 7.0¢
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?Lost
No$32 @ 5.3¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Lost
No$9 @ 1.0¢
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?Lost
Yes$174 @ 58.0¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?Lost
Yes$33 @ 11.2¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?Lost
No$30 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Lost
No$61 @ 17.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Lost
No$20 @ 5.0¢
Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in October 2026?Won
No$12 @ 48.0¢
Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Lost
No$49 @ 2.0¢
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.4¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$358 @ 24.8¢
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Lost
No$70 @ 24.7¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-09?Lost
Yes$20 @ 28.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Won
Yes$10 @ 56.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?Lost
Yes$40 @ 49.7¢
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-31?Won
No$4 @ 65.0¢
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-31?Lost
Yes$45 @ 64.2¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 14.0¢
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-01?Won
Yes$175 @ 89.0¢
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-25?Won
Yes$23 @ 73.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?Lost
Yes$40 @ 39.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$260	17.3¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$223	17.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$204	48.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$178	27.3¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Geopolitics	Yes	$145	17.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$142	14.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$120	24.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$111	15.8¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	No	$101	8.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$99	9.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$96	16.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$90	20.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$81	27.0¢
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$63	9.8¢
Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$62	20.4¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$56	7.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$54	9.0¢
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$52	13.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Geopolitics	No	$50	10.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$48	12.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	No	$47	7.5¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$47	11.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$46	10.2¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?	Geopolitics	Yes	$46	28.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$42	7.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$40	8.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	Yes	$40	16.0¢
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$39	6.7¢
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?	Science	Yes	$39	33.1¢
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$38	7.0¢

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$260 @ 17.3¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Politics
Yes$223 @ 17.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?Politics
Yes$204 @ 48.0¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$178 @ 27.3¢
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Geopolitics
Yes$145 @ 17.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$142 @ 14.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$120 @ 24.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
Yes$111 @ 15.8¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
No$101 @ 8.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$99 @ 9.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$96 @ 16.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$90 @ 20.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$81 @ 27.0¢
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by October 31?Politics
Yes$63 @ 9.8¢
Israel military action against Syria by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$62 @ 20.4¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$56 @ 7.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$54 @ 9.0¢
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$52 @ 13.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 10.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
Yes$48 @ 12.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
No$47 @ 7.5¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$47 @ 11.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
Yes$46 @ 10.2¢
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?Geopolitics
Yes$46 @ 28.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$42 @ 7.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
Yes$40 @ 16.0¢
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?Politics
Yes$39 @ 6.7¢
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 7.9 or below?Science
Yes$39 @ 33.1¢
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
Yes$38 @ 7.0¢