0x3038…9368

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x30382c307d6dc09f48685367927bb42d8e969368
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.7pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

88% @ 71.9¢

Brier

0.095

Resolved

322

Avg size

$38

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	68% (19/28)	-11%	28
Other	68% (15/22)	+7%	22
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+28%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+117%	1

Politics28 bets
Hit rate
68% (19/28)
ROI
-11%
Other22 bets
Hit rate
68% (15/22)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+28%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+117%

Track record

68% hit · 36/53

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	$1.5k	73.8¢	Won
Will Patrus Ananias win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	$16	4.2¢	Lost
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	No	$98	49.0¢	Won
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Yes	$174	58.0¢	Won
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Yes	$101	63.9¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$3.0k	85.9¢	Lost
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	Yes	$15	73.0¢	Won
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$283	47.2¢	Lost
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	$690	79.9¢	Won
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	$545	77.9¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$208	83.3¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$112	42.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?	No	$128	85.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$45	78.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$60	89.7¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$158	85.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$103	64.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$90	82.1¢	Lost
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	$3.7k	77.5¢	Won
Lula participates in debate before first round?	No	$334	77.3¢	Won
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$5	9.6¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$13	66.2¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$956	75.3¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	$20	65.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$762	85.3¢	Won
No one announced as next James Bond?	Yes	$9	46.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$93	31.0¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	No	$175	87.6¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	$80	80.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?	No	$27	89.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$677	66.5¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$797	79.7¢	Won
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?	No	$42	84.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$89	73.8¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$971	88.2¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$759	63.1¢	Lost
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?	Yes	$60	60.0¢	Lost
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$437	82.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	No	$18	89.0¢	Won
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	$28	88.1¢	Won
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	Yes	$80	88.5¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$97	77.2¢	Lost
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$233	66.4¢	Won
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	No	$120	80.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	$71	71.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	No	$500	71.4¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	$32	53.5¢	Lost

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 73.8¢
Will Patrus Ananias win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?Lost
Yes$16 @ 4.2¢
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Won
No$98 @ 49.0¢
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$174 @ 58.0¢
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Lost
Yes$101 @ 63.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$3.0k @ 85.9¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?Won
Yes$15 @ 73.0¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$283 @ 47.2¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Won
Yes$690 @ 79.9¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Won
Yes$545 @ 77.9¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$208 @ 83.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$112 @ 42.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?Won
No$128 @ 85.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$45 @ 78.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$60 @ 89.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$8 @ 84.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$158 @ 85.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$103 @ 64.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$90 @ 82.1¢
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 77.5¢
Lula participates in debate before first round?Won
No$334 @ 77.3¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$13 @ 66.2¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$956 @ 75.3¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Won
No$20 @ 65.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$762 @ 85.3¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Won
Yes$9 @ 46.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$93 @ 31.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Won
No$175 @ 87.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Lost
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?Won
No$27 @ 89.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$677 @ 66.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$797 @ 79.7¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?Lost
No$42 @ 84.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$89 @ 73.8¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$971 @ 88.2¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$759 @ 63.1¢
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Lost
Yes$60 @ 60.0¢
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$437 @ 82.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?Won
No$18 @ 89.0¢
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?Won
No$28 @ 88.1¢
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?Won
Yes$80 @ 88.5¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$97 @ 77.2¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$233 @ 66.4¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?Won
No$120 @ 80.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Won
Yes$71 @ 71.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?Won
No$500 @ 71.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Lost
No$32 @ 53.5¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	Politics	No	$4.1k	75.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	36.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$1.4k	90.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$1.2k	67.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.1k	70.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$536	89.3¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$497	71.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$428	85.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$324	81.0¢
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	Politics	No	$257	83.6¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$253	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$253	50.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	No	$206	51.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$206	68.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$189	63.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$188	94.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Politics	No	$177	80.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$167	55.1¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$144	72.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$142	71.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$140	70.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$83	83.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$65	65.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$62	62.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$47	15.7¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$10	10.3¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$3	2.9¢

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Politics
No$4.1k @ 75.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 36.7¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$1.4k @ 90.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$1.2k @ 67.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.1k @ 70.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$536 @ 89.3¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$497 @ 71.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$428 @ 85.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$324 @ 81.0¢
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?Politics
No$257 @ 83.6¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$253 @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$253 @ 50.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
No$206 @ 51.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$206 @ 68.7¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$189 @ 63.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$188 @ 94.0¢
Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics
No$177 @ 80.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$167 @ 55.1¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$144 @ 72.0¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$142 @ 71.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$83 @ 83.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$62 @ 62.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$47 @ 15.7¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$10 @ 10.3¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$3 @ 2.9¢