0x7df6…ac3b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x7df61ca342c9b53ba9b4c60745718ed48a77ac3b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.6pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

42% @ 38.3¢

Brier

0.184

Resolved

2658

Avg size

$48

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (70/174)	+10%	174
Sports	42% (46/110)	+10%	110
Politics	39% (31/80)	+3%	80
Geopolitics	26% (12/47)	-2%	47
Economy	60% (3/5)	+6%	5
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+79%	1

Other174 bets
Hit rate
40% (70/174)
ROI
+10%
Sports110 bets
Hit rate
42% (46/110)
ROI
+10%
Politics80 bets
Hit rate
39% (31/80)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics47 bets
Hit rate
26% (12/47)
ROI
-2%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+6%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+79%

Track record

39% hit · 163/417

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	$33	5.5¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$85	43.8¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	Yes	$373	73.5¢	Won
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	58.9¢	Lost
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$76	31.4¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$102	85.1¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$4	9.0¢	Lost
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)	Steve Erceg	$62	50.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$873	87.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$116	7.6¢	Lost
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?	Yes	$6	5.0¢	Lost
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs	G2 Esports	$174	15.8¢	Lost
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	$971	88.3¢	Won
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	$60	2.6¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$144	85.0¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$22	11.0¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$96	70.1¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$852	38.7¢	Lost
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$135	9.6¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Over	$263	47.8¢	Won
Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Under	$33	51.0¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?	Yes	$54	89.0¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$636	79.5¢	Won
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$471	21.7¢	Lost
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$40	40.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$2	1.2¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$722	49.1¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	No	$91	22.8¢	Lost
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$201	67.7¢	Won
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$978	46.3¢	Won
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$1.2k	52.7¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$578	72.3¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$406	15.6¢	Lost
Fetterman out by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$242	46.1¢	Lost
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$204	54.4¢	Won
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$411	74.6¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$41	19.6¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$108	6.0¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$528	88.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	33.0¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.3k	42.3¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$625	57.1¢	Won
Spread: France (-1.5)	France	$322	58.5¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	No	$23	19.3¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$16	82.0¢	Won
Will Team Spirit Make a Roster Change Before September?	Yes	$1	8.9¢	Lost

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Lost
No$33 @ 5.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$85 @ 43.8¢
Will Kai and Speed finish their Minecraft marathon by August 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Won
Yes$373 @ 73.5¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 58.9¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$76 @ 31.4¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$102 @ 85.1¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.0¢
UFC Fight Night: Ramazan Temirov vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)Lost
Steve Erceg$62 @ 50.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$873 @ 87.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$116 @ 7.6¢
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 5.0¢
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational PlayoffsLost
G2 Esports$174 @ 15.8¢
Will GamerLegion make a roster change before August?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
No$971 @ 88.3¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Lost
Yes$60 @ 2.6¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$144 @ 85.0¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$22 @ 11.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$96 @ 70.1¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$852 @ 38.7¢
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$135 @ 9.6¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5Won
Over$263 @ 47.8¢
Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5Lost
Under$33 @ 51.0¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Won
Yes$54 @ 89.0¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$636 @ 79.5¢
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$471 @ 21.7¢
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$40 @ 40.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$2 @ 1.2¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$722 @ 49.1¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Lost
No$91 @ 22.8¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$201 @ 67.7¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$978 @ 46.3¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 52.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$578 @ 72.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$406 @ 15.6¢
Fetterman out by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$242 @ 46.1¢
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$204 @ 54.4¢
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$411 @ 74.6¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$41 @ 19.6¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$108 @ 6.0¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$528 @ 88.0¢
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$21 @ 33.0¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$1.3k @ 42.3¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$625 @ 57.1¢
Spread: France (-1.5)Lost
France$322 @ 58.5¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Lost
No$23 @ 19.3¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$16 @ 82.0¢
Will Team Spirit Make a Roster Change Before September?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$1.0k	50.0¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$586	39.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$461	76.3¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$300	60.3¢
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$275	68.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Politics	No	$250	67.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$220	46.9¢
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	Sports	Yes	$198	28.3¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$187	48.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$185	37.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$185	37.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Politics	Yes	$182	91.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$178	59.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$177	59.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$176	88.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$174	87.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$172	57.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$171	78.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$159	22.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: Other	Politics	Yes	$159	22.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Politics	Yes	$159	22.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$150	23.0¢
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?	Sports	No	$145	29.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$129	17.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$124	62.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$119	50.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$118	39.4¢
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?	Sports	Yes	$116	24.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$114	57.0¢

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$1.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$586 @ 39.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$461 @ 76.3¢
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
Yes$300 @ 60.3¢
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$275 @ 68.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
No$250 @ 67.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$220 @ 46.9¢
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2026 World Chess Championship?Sports
Yes$198 @ 28.3¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$187 @ 48.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$185 @ 37.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$185 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Politics
Yes$182 @ 91.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$178 @ 59.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$177 @ 59.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$176 @ 88.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$172 @ 57.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$171 @ 78.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$159 @ 22.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: OtherPolitics
Yes$159 @ 22.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousePolitics
Yes$159 @ 22.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$150 @ 23.0¢
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship?Sports
No$145 @ 29.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$129 @ 17.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$124 @ 62.0¢
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$119 @ 50.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$118 @ 39.4¢
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026?Sports
Yes$116 @ 24.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$114 @ 57.0¢