0xd9e7…4cde

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd9e7c4534905e459ec75e9f5d828c58a12924cde
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.0pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

76% @ 69.5¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

297

Avg size

$122

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	77% (24/31)	+26%	31
Other	72% (18/25)	+14%	25
Sports	43% (3/7)	+140%	7
Geopolitics	50% (2/4)	-51%	4

Politics31 bets
Hit rate
77% (24/31)
ROI
+26%
Other25 bets
Hit rate
72% (18/25)
ROI
+14%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+140%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-51%

Track record

70% hit · 47/67

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$9	1.8¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$31	62.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$163	68.7¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$96	18.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$71	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$112	28.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$375	75.0¢	Lost
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$8.2k	78.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	55.0¢	Won
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$456	59.5¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$927	80.6¢	Won
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$769	82.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$87	58.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$237	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$96	89.7¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$34	6.7¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$394	60.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$39	39.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$473	42.5¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$395	79.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$695	86.9¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$380	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$153	38.3¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$588	84.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$528	88.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$520	86.7¢	Won
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?	Yes	$13	85.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$440	40.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$110	13.4¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$1.2k	79.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.4k	79.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	No	$197	78.0¢	Lost
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?	No	$151	75.5¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$1.2k	61.3¢	Won
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	No	$108	88.2¢	Won
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$21	16.0¢	Lost
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	$308	77.0¢	Won
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$75	79.7¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$302	50.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.0k	68.7¢	Lost
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	$186	62.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$445	89.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$235	47.0¢	Won
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?	Yes	$5.2k	76.3¢	Won
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Brazil	$275	68.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	$356	89.0¢	Won
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$88	88.4¢	Won
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?	No	$59	59.0¢	Won
Will Union Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$3.0k	87.2¢	Won

Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.8¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Won
Yes$31 @ 62.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$163 @ 68.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$96 @ 18.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$71 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$112 @ 28.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$375 @ 75.0¢
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$8.2k @ 78.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 55.0¢
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$456 @ 59.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$927 @ 80.6¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$769 @ 82.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$87 @ 58.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$237 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$96 @ 89.7¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$34 @ 6.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$394 @ 60.7¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$39 @ 39.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$473 @ 42.5¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$395 @ 79.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$695 @ 86.9¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$380 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$153 @ 38.3¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$588 @ 84.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$528 @ 88.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$520 @ 86.7¢
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
Yes$13 @ 85.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$440 @ 40.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$110 @ 13.4¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$1.2k @ 79.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 79.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$197 @ 78.0¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?Won
No$151 @ 75.5¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 61.3¢
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
No$108 @ 88.2¢
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Lost
Yes$21 @ 16.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Won
No$308 @ 77.0¢
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$75 @ 79.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$302 @ 50.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 68.7¢
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Won
Yes$186 @ 62.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$445 @ 89.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$235 @ 47.0¢
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?Won
Yes$5.2k @ 76.3¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceLost
Brazil$275 @ 68.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Won
No$356 @ 89.0¢
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$88 @ 88.4¢
US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?Won
No$59 @ 59.0¢
Will Union Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$3.0k @ 87.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.6k	90.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.3k	70.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	60.7¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	82.6¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.2k	87.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.5k	97.7¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.5k	97.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.4k	93.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$995	95.2¢
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$991	99.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$985	98.5¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	Politics	No	$890	80.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$889	82.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$770	77.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$717	95.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$696	73.8¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$690	69.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$616	88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$602	86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	—	Yes	$595	85.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$551	73.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$522	87.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$522	87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$440	88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$380	76.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$355	71.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$342	68.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$332	83.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	No	$310	62.0¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Politics	No	$301	75.2¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$3.6k @ 90.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$3.3k @ 70.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 60.7¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 82.6¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$2.2k @ 87.0¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1.5k @ 97.7¢
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1.5k @ 97.3¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.4k @ 93.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$995 @ 95.2¢
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$991 @ 99.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?—
No$985 @ 98.5¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?Politics
No$890 @ 80.7¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$889 @ 82.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$770 @ 77.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$717 @ 95.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$696 @ 73.8¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$690 @ 69.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$616 @ 88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$602 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?—
Yes$595 @ 85.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$551 @ 73.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$522 @ 87.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$522 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$440 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
No$380 @ 76.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
No$355 @ 71.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$342 @ 68.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$332 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
No$310 @ 62.0¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?Politics
No$301 @ 75.2¢