0xd9e7…4cde

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xd9e7c4534905e459ec75e9f5d828c58a12924cde
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.0pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

76% @ 64.9¢

Brier

0.150

Resolved

469

Avg size

$109

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (31/52)	+5%	52
Politics	77% (37/48)	+23%	48
Geopolitics	85% (11/13)	-5%	13
Sports	43% (3/7)	+140%	7
Business	100% (1/1)	+2%	1

Other52 bets
Hit rate
60% (31/52)
ROI
+5%
Politics48 bets
Hit rate
77% (37/48)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
-5%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+140%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+2%

Track record

69% hit · 83/121

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$359	87.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	No	$285	57.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	$151	98.3¢	Won
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	$472	94.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	$80	93.0¢	Won
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$350	70.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$109	66.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	$99	99.4¢	Won
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	$108	54.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	$185	37.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$284	56.7¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$9	1.8¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$194	79.8¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$31	62.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$163	68.7¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$96	18.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$71	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$112	28.0¢	Lost
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$213	85.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$375	75.0¢	Lost
Will Venstre win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$13	26.9¢	Won
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$8.2k	78.5¢	Won
Will Venstre win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$42	68.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$22	55.0¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$2.3k	71.9¢	Won
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$131	26.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$58	58.0¢	Lost
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?	No	$456	59.5¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	No	$927	80.6¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$91	50.0¢	Lost
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?	No	$769	82.7¢	Won
Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$483	87.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$100	10.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$87	58.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$237	79.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$460	46.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$96	89.7¢	Lost
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$34	6.7¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$394	60.7¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$39	39.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$473	42.5¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in February?	No	$39	86.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$395	79.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$695	86.9¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$380	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$153	38.3¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$1.3k	84.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$588	84.0¢	Won
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$427	85.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$528	88.0¢	Won

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$359 @ 87.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Won
No$285 @ 57.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Won
No$151 @ 98.3¢
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Won
No$472 @ 94.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Won
Yes$80 @ 93.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$350 @ 70.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$109 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Won
Yes$99 @ 99.4¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Won
Yes$108 @ 54.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Lost
Yes$185 @ 37.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$284 @ 56.7¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$194 @ 79.8¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?Won
Yes$31 @ 62.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$163 @ 68.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$96 @ 18.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$71 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$112 @ 28.0¢
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
Yes$213 @ 85.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$375 @ 75.0¢
Will Venstre win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
Yes$13 @ 26.9¢
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$8.2k @ 78.5¢
Will Venstre win 15-19 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
Yes$42 @ 68.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$22 @ 55.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$2.3k @ 71.9¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$131 @ 26.9¢
Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$58 @ 58.0¢
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?Won
No$456 @ 59.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Won
No$927 @ 80.6¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$91 @ 50.0¢
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?Won
No$769 @ 82.7¢
Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
Yes$483 @ 87.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$100 @ 10.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$87 @ 58.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$237 @ 79.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$460 @ 46.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$96 @ 89.7¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$34 @ 6.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$394 @ 60.7¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$39 @ 39.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$473 @ 42.5¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in February?Won
No$39 @ 86.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$395 @ 79.0¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
No$695 @ 86.9¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$380 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$153 @ 38.3¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 84.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$588 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
No$427 @ 85.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$528 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$4.3k	82.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.6k	90.8¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.6k	91.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.4k	70.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	62.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$1.6k	91.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.4k	90.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.1k	93.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$998	71.3¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$995	95.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$931	84.6¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?	Politics	No	$890	80.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$761	76.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Politics	No	$717	95.6¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$616	88.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$551	73.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$522	87.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$481	96.3¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$444	74.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$370	82.3¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$365	73.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$364	73.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$355	71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$352	88.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$345	69.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	No	$310	62.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$301	86.0¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Politics	No	$301	75.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$259	51.8¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$255	85.0¢

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$4.3k @ 82.9¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$3.6k @ 90.8¢
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$3.6k @ 91.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.4k @ 70.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 62.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$1.6k @ 91.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.4k @ 90.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.1k @ 93.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$998 @ 71.3¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$995 @ 95.2¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$931 @ 84.6¢
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?Politics
No$890 @ 80.7¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$761 @ 76.1¢
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics
No$717 @ 95.6¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$616 @ 88.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$551 @ 73.5¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$522 @ 87.0¢
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$481 @ 96.3¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$444 @ 74.0¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$370 @ 82.3¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$365 @ 73.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$364 @ 73.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$355 @ 71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$352 @ 88.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$345 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
No$310 @ 62.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$301 @ 86.0¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?Politics
No$301 @ 75.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$259 @ 51.8¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$255 @ 85.0¢