0xfc2f…10c7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfc2f4f50ce2f6045d35558a5e2d8d4b2ac6610c7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+52%

Win rate

42% @ 32.0¢

Brier

0.176

Resolved

4729

Avg size

$389

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	37% (85/230)	+63%	230
Other	39% (29/74)	+83%	74
Geopolitics	34% (25/73)	+5%	73

Politics230 bets
Hit rate
37% (85/230)
ROI
+63%
Other74 bets
Hit rate
39% (29/74)
ROI
+83%
Geopolitics73 bets
Hit rate
34% (25/73)
ROI
+5%

Track record

37% hit · 139/377

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	$1.6k	6.7¢	Lost
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$12	56.0¢	Won
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	$1.1k	48.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$7.6k	27.4¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	33.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$8.6k	21.1¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	$873	14.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$1.8k	57.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$1.7k	10.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$2.7k	29.2¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$297	19.5¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$2.8k	4.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1.5k	2.1¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$115	10.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$122	4.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	$720	45.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$15.8k	81.7¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$33.3k	21.4¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$437	3.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?	Yes	$12.5k	53.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$1.9k	87.3¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$20	14.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?	Yes	$251	4.6¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?	No	$7.0k	39.7¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	$18.4k	51.5¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	Yes	$2.0k	40.5¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$23	16.9¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$423	70.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$60	36.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes	$144	4.0¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$638	2.9¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$581	16.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$5.6k	75.5¢	Won
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?	No	$6.0k	75.0¢	Won
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?	Yes	$511	6.9¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	No	$2.9k	39.7¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	Yes	$115	36.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$444	9.9¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$293	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$160	10.4¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	$1.7k	51.4¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$1.4k	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$5.7k	16.9¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$4.4k	76.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$439	4.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$427	11.9¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$2.5k	21.9¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6.6k	74.9¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?	Yes	$98	13.4¢	Lost

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 6.7¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$12 @ 56.0¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 48.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$7.6k @ 27.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 33.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$8.6k @ 21.1¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
Yes$873 @ 14.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$1.8k @ 57.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 10.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$2.7k @ 29.2¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$297 @ 19.5¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 4.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 2.1¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$115 @ 10.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$122 @ 4.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$720 @ 45.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$15.8k @ 81.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$33.3k @ 21.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$437 @ 3.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Won
Yes$12.5k @ 53.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$1.9k @ 87.3¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 14.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$251 @ 4.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Lost
No$7.0k @ 39.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Lost
No$18.4k @ 51.5¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 40.5¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$23 @ 16.9¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$423 @ 70.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$60 @ 36.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$144 @ 4.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$638 @ 2.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$581 @ 16.6¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
No$5.6k @ 75.5¢
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?Won
No$6.0k @ 75.0¢
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?Lost
Yes$511 @ 6.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Lost
No$2.9k @ 39.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Won
Yes$115 @ 36.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$444 @ 9.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$293 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$160 @ 10.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 51.4¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 41.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$5.7k @ 16.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$4.4k @ 76.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$439 @ 4.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$427 @ 11.9¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$2.5k @ 21.9¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$6.6k @ 74.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?Lost
Yes$98 @ 13.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?	Politics	No	$13.9k	23.9¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.7k	82.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	61.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$2.3k	35.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.9k	83.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	6.7¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	19.0¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	86.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$925	92.5¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$850	86.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	No	$709	33.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$686	16.7¢
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$435	87.0¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	Politics	Yes	$419	6.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$390	13.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$346	72.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	No	$223	80.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$159	54.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$138	10.0¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$122	84.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$114	9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	Yes	$102	34.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$100	50.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$56	56.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$47	47.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$20	9.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$12	60.0¢

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Politics
No$13.9k @ 23.9¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$2.7k @ 82.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 61.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
No$2.3k @ 35.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$1.9k @ 83.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 6.7¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 19.0¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 86.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$925 @ 92.5¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$850 @ 86.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
No$709 @ 33.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$686 @ 16.7¢
Houthis enter Aden by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$435 @ 87.0¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?Politics
Yes$419 @ 6.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
Yes$390 @ 13.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$346 @ 72.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
No$223 @ 80.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$159 @ 54.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
Yes$138 @ 10.0¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$122 @ 84.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$114 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
Yes$102 @ 34.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$100 @ 50.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$56 @ 56.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$47 @ 47.0¢
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$20 @ 9.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$12 @ 60.0¢