0xfc2f…10c7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfc2f4f50ce2f6045d35558a5e2d8d4b2ac6610c7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.5pp

ROI

+62%

Win rate

44% @ 34.2¢

Brier

0.170

Resolved

4337

Avg size

$394

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	41% (67/164)	+81%	164
Other	39% (24/62)	+74%	62
Geopolitics	37% (23/62)	+6%	62

Politics164 bets
Hit rate
41% (67/164)
ROI
+81%
Other62 bets
Hit rate
39% (24/62)
ROI
+74%
Geopolitics62 bets
Hit rate
37% (23/62)
ROI
+6%

Track record

40% hit · 114/288

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$12	56.0¢	Won
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Yes	$1.1k	48.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$7.6k	27.4¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	33.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$10.0k	22.9¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	$873	14.3¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$1.8k	57.6¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$1.7k	10.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$5.9k	35.4¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$297	19.5¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$2.8k	4.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$1.5k	2.1¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?	Yes	$115	10.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	No	$122	4.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?	No	$720	45.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$15.8k	81.7¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$33.3k	21.4¢	Won
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$437	3.9¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$1.9k	87.3¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$20	14.0¢	Won
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?	Yes	$23	16.9¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$423	70.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$60	36.0¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$638	2.9¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$581	16.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$5.6k	75.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	No	$2.9k	39.7¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	Yes	$115	36.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$444	9.9¢	Won
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$293	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$160	10.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$7.8k	21.3¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$4.4k	76.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$439	4.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	Yes	$427	11.9¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	No	$2.7k	23.8¢	Lost
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6.6k	74.9¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?	Yes	$98	13.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$20.7k	75.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$8.7k	12.0¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	No	$82	82.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$1.5k	6.7¢	Lost
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7	8.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$6.9k	27.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$10.2k	54.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	Yes	$20	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	$73	58.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	Yes	$638	39.2¢	Won
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	$40	79.0¢	Won

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$12 @ 56.0¢
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 48.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$7.6k @ 27.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 33.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$10.0k @ 22.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
Yes$873 @ 14.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$1.8k @ 57.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 10.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$5.9k @ 35.4¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$297 @ 19.5¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 4.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 2.1¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Lost
Yes$115 @ 10.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Lost
No$122 @ 4.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$720 @ 45.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$15.8k @ 81.7¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$33.3k @ 21.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$437 @ 3.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$1.9k @ 87.3¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 14.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?Won
Yes$23 @ 16.9¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$423 @ 70.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$60 @ 36.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$638 @ 2.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$581 @ 16.6¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
No$5.6k @ 75.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Lost
No$2.9k @ 39.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Won
Yes$115 @ 36.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$444 @ 9.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$293 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$160 @ 10.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$7.8k @ 21.3¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$4.4k @ 76.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$439 @ 4.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Lost
Yes$427 @ 11.9¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$2.7k @ 23.8¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$6.6k @ 74.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1?Lost
Yes$98 @ 13.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$20.7k @ 75.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$8.7k @ 12.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Won
No$82 @ 82.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 6.7¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 8.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$6.9k @ 27.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$10.2k @ 54.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Lost
No$73 @ 58.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Won
Yes$638 @ 39.2¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
No$40 @ 79.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$10.2k	83.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.7k	92.0¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.1k	86.8¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	67.8¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.9k	86.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$2.8k	11.2¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.7k	82.6¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	85.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	6.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	14.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	43.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.4k	72.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	1.1¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	19.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Other	Yes	$1.1k	18.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	34.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$780	13.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$705	4.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	No	$679	34.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$601	1.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	No	$600	10.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$412	56.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$382	18.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$346	72.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Politics	No	$332	3.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$252	6.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Politics	No	$223	80.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$212	18.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$188	5.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$138	10.0¢

Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$10.2k @ 83.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$3.7k @ 92.0¢
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$3.1k @ 86.8¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 67.8¢
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$2.9k @ 86.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$2.8k @ 11.2¢
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$2.7k @ 82.6¢
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 85.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 6.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 14.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 43.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.4k @ 72.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 1.1¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 19.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Other
Yes$1.1k @ 18.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 34.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
Yes$780 @ 13.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
Yes$705 @ 4.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
No$679 @ 34.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?Politics
Yes$601 @ 1.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
No$600 @ 10.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$412 @ 56.5¢
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$382 @ 18.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$346 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Politics
No$332 @ 3.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$252 @ 6.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Politics
No$223 @ 80.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$212 @ 18.9¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$188 @ 5.0¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
Yes$138 @ 10.0¢