0xc9ad…79d0

Specialization by sphere

• Other605 bets

  Hit rate

  60% (360/605)

  ROI

  +4%

• Politics35 bets

  Hit rate

  77% (27/35)

  ROI

  +28%

• Geopolitics7 bets

  Hit rate

  86% (6/7)

  ROI

  +26%

• Culture4 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (3/4)

  ROI

  +20%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/3)

  ROI

  -100%

• Crypto3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +93%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +16%

• Business1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +3%

• Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$484 @ 96.8¢
• Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Won
  Yes$423 @ 84.6¢
• Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  No$752 @ 97.6¢
• Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Won
  No$90 @ 89.9¢
• Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August?Won
  No$433 @ 86.6¢
• Will anyone audibly fart during Digital Asset Summit?Lost
  Yes$26 @ 4.6¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  No$682 @ 85.3¢
• Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Won
  Yes$1.7k @ 88.3¢
• No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
  No$122 @ 81.3¢
• Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Lost
  No$265 @ 56.3¢
• TikTok sale announced by March 31?Lost
  No$30 @ 5.9¢
• Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during today's Education Event?Won
  No$79 @ 80.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?Lost
  No$66 @ 44.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?Won
  Yes$417 @ 74.8¢
• Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Lost
  No$88 @ 35.2¢
• TikTok sale announced by September 30?Won
  No$88 @ 88.0¢
• TikTok sale announced by September 30?Lost
  Yes$408 @ 31.5¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 8.8¢
• Russian strike on Poland by September 30?Won
  No$348 @ 87.1¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Won
  No$172 @ 82.9¢
• Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
  No$467 @ 81.0¢
• Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?Won
  Yes$47 @ 47.0¢
• Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
  No$316 @ 58.4¢
• U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30?Won
  No$61 @ 61.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
  No$40 @ 80.0¢
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?Won
  No$155 @ 86.0¢
• Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
  Yes$208 @ 52.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
  No$14 @ 27.0¢
• Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
  Yes$57 @ 57.3¢
• US government shutdown by October 1?Won
  Yes$689 @ 81.1¢
• US kicks trans members out of military before July? Won
  No$3 @ 53.0¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$147 @ 18.4¢
• Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?Won
  No$20 @ 79.0¢
• Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?Won
  No$86 @ 86.0¢
• Will FrP win the second most seats in the Norway election?Won
  Yes$9 @ 24.0¢
• Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?Lost
  No$8 @ 9.8¢
• Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
  Yes$65 @ 30.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by January 31, 2025?Won
  No$314 @ 80.4¢
• Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
  No$487 @ 88.5¢
• Will Donald Trump say "Greenland" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Won
  No$174 @ 85.0¢
• Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Lost
  No$6 @ 64.2¢
• Will Trump say "Egg" during Easter Dinner on April 16?Won
  No$10 @ 51.5¢
• More EU sanctions on Russia by December 31?Won
  Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
• Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?Won
  No$142 @ 71.0¢
• Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 0.1¢
• Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?Won
  Yes$641 @ 80.9¢
• New arrests in Charlie Kirk shooting by September 30?Won
  No$80 @ 80.0¢
• Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 3.9¢
• Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by August 31?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
• Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?Won
  No$293 @ 73.2¢

Current positions

• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 77.6¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 75.3¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$2.0k @ 81.2¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
  No$1.4k @ 92.0¢
• Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 68.8¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$1.2k @ 67.2¢
• Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 91.5¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$910 @ 91.0¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$855 @ 78.7¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$673 @ 74.8¢
• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$654 @ 93.5¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$609 @ 87.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  No$609 @ 87.0¢
• Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$602 @ 86.0¢
• Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$570 @ 19.0¢
• Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$530 @ 78.6¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$504 @ 63.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
  No$460 @ 92.0¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$454 @ 68.0¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$439 @ 87.8¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$418 @ 83.7¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$400 @ 80.0¢
• Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$392 @ 65.3¢
• Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
  No$372 @ 93.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  Yes$315 @ 63.0¢
• Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$314 @ 76.1¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$284 @ 56.7¢
• Iran leadership change by October 31?Politics
  No$267 @ 89.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$256 @ 64.0¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
  No$225 @ 75.0¢