Market consensus

Track record · measured

When ≥1 tracked sharps back the same outcome, here's how it has resolved:

Hit rate

37%

Implied

36%

Edge

+1.0pp

Sample

105741

ROI, equal-stake

-8%

ROI, $-weighted

+2%

95% confidence interval +0.7 to +1.3pp — statistically distinguishable from zero.

Ground-truth, captured at resolution — hit-rate alone misleads (smart money loads cheap longshots), so we measure edge over the implied price. We publish the interval, not just the point: the sample is young and growing, and we won't call it edge until the numbers earn it.