0x08c8…1da2

Specialization by sphere

• Other531 bets

  Hit rate

  63% (337/531)

  ROI

  +8%

• Politics36 bets

  Hit rate

  58% (21/36)

  ROI

  +11%

• Sports11 bets

  Hit rate

  45% (5/11)

  ROI

  +19%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (5/6)

  ROI

  +21%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +78%

• Business2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +124%

• Economy1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +31%

• Culture1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +20%

• Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?Won
  No$4.8k @ 86.6¢
• Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during victory rally? Won
  Yes$237 @ 74.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire before July? Won
  No$815 @ 67.0¢
• GPT ads by December 31?Won
  No$507 @ 86.0¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
  No$2.0k @ 80.0¢
• Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?Won
  No$823 @ 87.0¢
• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$603 @ 60.0¢
• Will Trump pardon CZ by October 31?Lost
  No$9 @ 79.0¢
• Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?Lost
  Yes$140 @ 41.0¢
• Will Gladiator II gross more than $75m on opening weekend?Lost
  Yes$170 @ 17.0¢
• French election called by October 10?Won
  No$210 @ 40.6¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?Won
  No$1.0k @ 87.0¢
• Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Lost
  No$4 @ 36.0¢
• MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?Won
  Yes$1.7k @ 87.7¢
• Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
  Yes$890 @ 53.7¢
• Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
  No$3.4k @ 77.9¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Won
  No$1.0k @ 86.7¢
• Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
  Yes$1.7k @ 73.0¢
• Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
  No$581 @ 66.0¢
• Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?Won
  Yes$182 @ 63.0¢
• Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
  Yes$412 @ 70.0¢
• Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?Lost
  No$630 @ 81.5¢
• Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?Won
  No$2.4k @ 90.0¢
• Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 7.0¢
• Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Lost
  No$2.3k @ 73.4¢
• Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Won
  Yes$9 @ 32.0¢
• Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Lost
  No$4.4k @ 75.5¢
• Will RFK Jr. say "Vaccine" during Friday address?Lost
  Yes$40 @ 25.0¢
• Will no one dissent September Fed decision?Won
  No$887 @ 72.0¢
• Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?Won
  No$1.0k @ 63.9¢
• Trump exits Russia x Ukraine negotiations before July?Won
  No$3.3k @ 79.8¢
• Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Lost
  No$73 @ 66.0¢
• Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?Won
  No$1.3k @ 88.0¢
• Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
  No$629 @ 72.9¢
• ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?Lost
  Yes$33 @ 15.0¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Won
  No$3.0k @ 76.4¢
• Will Trump release medical records before the election? Won
  No$435 @ 87.0¢
• Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?Lost
  Yes$1.8k @ 56.0¢
• Will Anderson Cooper be named in Epstein files?Won
  No$91 @ 69.2¢
• Nothing Ever Happens Won
  Yes$488 @ 61.0¢
• Walz's brother attends Trump rally in September?Won
  No$24 @ 89.0¢
• Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Lost
  Yes$304 @ 23.1¢
• MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?Won
  No$2.0k @ 33.9¢
• MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?Lost
  Yes$940 @ 87.5¢
• TikTok banned in 2025?Won
  Yes$109 @ 82.0¢
• Will Karoline Leavitt say Elon/Musk during next White House press briefing?Lost
  Yes$561 @ 79.8¢
• Will Trump say "Front Row Joe" during Greensboro, NC rally?Won
  Yes$129 @ 52.8¢
• Will Kamala Harris get 80-82m votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?Lost
  Yes$118 @ 10.1¢
• Will Trump win Wyoming by 50+ points?Won
  No$320 @ 64.0¢
• Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?Won
  No$446 @ 67.0¢

Current positions

• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
  No$25.2k @ 92.0¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$15.1k @ 77.3¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$14.2k @ 82.2¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$10.1k @ 63.9¢
• Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
  No$7.9k @ 74.1¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  No$7.6k @ 84.9¢
• Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$6.7k @ 52.3¢
• Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  No$6.4k @ 76.3¢
• Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
  No$3.2k @ 71.4¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$2.4k @ 35.9¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.3k @ 70.7¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 90.6¢
• Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$1.4k @ 59.7¢
• Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Politics
  No$963 @ 86.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
  Yes$891 @ 81.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$683 @ 68.0¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$681 @ 49.8¢
• Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?Politics
  No$626 @ 48.6¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Politics
  Yes$623 @ 62.0¢
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$565 @ 14.7¢
• Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$523 @ 52.0¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$455 @ 6.4¢
• Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$409 @ 5.4¢
• Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$363 @ 41.1¢
• Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$361 @ 8.1¢
• Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$318 @ 13.6¢
• Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$309 @ 3.8¢
• Will Manchester United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?Sports
  Yes$270 @ 50.0¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$216 @ 7.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
  No$201 @ 20.0¢