0x91c7…b576

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x91c7f544a6efad9825185c2bca1f1a95cc92b576
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.4pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

63% @ 61.0¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

2111

Avg size

$36

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (166/291)	+12%	291
Politics	68% (45/66)	+2%	66
Geopolitics	62% (13/21)	-26%	21
Sports	25% (2/8)	+106%	8
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+18%	2
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Science	100% (1/1)	+25%	1

Other291 bets
Hit rate
57% (166/291)
ROI
+12%
Politics66 bets
Hit rate
68% (45/66)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics21 bets
Hit rate
62% (13/21)
ROI
-26%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
+106%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+18%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%

Track record

59% hit · 229/390

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$7	34.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$281	89.0¢	Won
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?	No	$4	70.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$83	82.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$7	14.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$74	82.7¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	8.0¢	Lost
Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?	No	$7	71.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$69	79.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$11	88.8¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$18	21.7¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?	Yes	$665	19.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$14	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$165	78.4¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	$259	87.8¢	Won
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	No	$25	86.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	No	$44	88.0¢	Won
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31?	Yes	$26	22.7¢	Lost
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?	Yes	$20	69.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?	Yes	$145	77.5¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$1.1k	85.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	$2	71.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$18	11.5¢	Lost
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?	Yes	$5	11.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$529	86.3¢	Won
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?	Yes	$7	18.0¢	Lost
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026?	Yes	$27	68.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?	No	$216	67.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$262	38.0¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$418	41.7¢	Lost
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?	Yes	$44	87.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$40	61.8¢	Lost
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?	Yes	$40	79.8¢	Won
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?	Yes	$38	75.0¢	Won
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?	Yes	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$269	82.8¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$68	85.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$22	5.6¢	Lost
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$129	87.6¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$46	47.5¢	Won
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	No	$151	65.8¢	Lost
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$344	63.6¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	Yes	$38	76.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$33	77.4¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?	No	$449	70.1¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	No	$3.2k	83.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$580	36.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$50	83.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	15.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$349	63.3¢	Won

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 34.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$281 @ 89.0¢
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?Lost
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$83 @ 82.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$74 @ 82.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.0¢
Will Noah rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?Won
No$7 @ 71.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$69 @ 79.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$11 @ 88.8¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$18 @ 21.7¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Lost
Yes$665 @ 19.4¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$14 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$165 @ 78.4¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?Won
No$259 @ 87.8¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 86.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Won
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Lost
Yes$26 @ 22.7¢
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?Won
Yes$20 @ 69.0¢
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?Lost
Yes$145 @ 77.5¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 85.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?Won
No$2 @ 71.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$18 @ 11.5¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$529 @ 86.3¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?Lost
Yes$7 @ 18.0¢
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 17, 2026?Won
Yes$27 @ 68.0¢
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?Lost
No$216 @ 67.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$262 @ 38.0¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$418 @ 41.7¢
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?Won
Yes$44 @ 87.0¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
Yes$40 @ 61.8¢
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Won
Yes$40 @ 79.8¢
Will Tisza win at least 110 seats?Won
Yes$38 @ 75.0¢
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$269 @ 82.8¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$68 @ 85.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$22 @ 5.6¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$129 @ 87.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$46 @ 47.5¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$151 @ 65.8¢
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$344 @ 63.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Won
Yes$38 @ 76.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$33 @ 77.4¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?Won
No$449 @ 70.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 83.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$580 @ 36.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 83.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$349 @ 63.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$4.0k	82.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	85.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	89.4¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	87.9¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$755	84.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$666	67.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$640	86.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$542	84.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$534	92.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$525	85.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	Yes	$447	69.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$433	84.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$408	86.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$364	80.9¢
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$356	83.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$245	81.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$236	89.1¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Politics	No	$227	90.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$219	91.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$194	62.7¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$190	86.2¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Politics	No	$184	80.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$172	68.7¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$155	79.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$147	73.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$132	88.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$112	93.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$90	81.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$87	87.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$84	66.0¢

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$4.0k @ 82.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 85.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 89.4¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 87.9¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
Yes$755 @ 84.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$666 @ 67.3¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$640 @ 86.8¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$542 @ 84.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$534 @ 92.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$525 @ 85.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
Yes$447 @ 69.2¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$433 @ 84.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$408 @ 86.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$364 @ 80.9¢
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$356 @ 83.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$245 @ 81.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$236 @ 89.1¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?Politics
No$227 @ 90.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$219 @ 91.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$194 @ 62.7¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$190 @ 86.2¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics
No$184 @ 80.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$172 @ 68.7¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
No$155 @ 79.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$147 @ 73.5¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$132 @ 88.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$112 @ 93.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$90 @ 81.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$84 @ 66.0¢