0xc390…2a1f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xc3907f00ba3fd35ef96c3b9afa1483b644af2a1f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-8.0pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

28% @ 36.4¢

Brier

0.165

Resolved

2793

Avg size

$45

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	33% (65/197)	+38%	197
Geopolitics	35% (9/26)	-69%	26
Politics	16% (4/25)	-90%	25
Sports	50% (3/6)	+24%	6
Tech	100% (1/1)	+59%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+45%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other197 bets
Hit rate
33% (65/197)
ROI
+38%
Geopolitics26 bets
Hit rate
35% (9/26)
ROI
-69%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
16% (4/25)
ROI
-90%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+24%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+59%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+45%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

33% hit · 84/257

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	$25	49.8¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 6?	No	$397	79.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 6?	Yes	$120	20.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$1.1k	44.1¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$15	2.0¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$249	19.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$5	3.3¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	Yes	$78	57.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$300	32.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	Yes	$3.4k	31.1¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$20	33.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$5.8k	30.5¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?	Yes	$39	0.4¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$501	42.9¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	No	$11	9.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$200	24.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$10	3.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	Yes	$100	4.5¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	No	$24	3.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	Yes	$114	38.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$20	15.0¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	$3	60.0¢	Won
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Seahawks	$3	69.0¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?	No	$102	51.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	$625	28.4¢	Lost
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$21	37.5¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$185	37.1¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?	Yes	$23	23.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$185	52.8¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$26	14.4¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?	Yes	$11	0.2¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$5.8k	48.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$79	26.3¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$2.8k	28.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$90	36.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$347	32.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	No	$12	29.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$70	70.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$50	82.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$62	15.7¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12?	No	$20	5.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$250	63.6¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Yes	$571	8.9¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Yes	$52	25.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$1.5k	59.1¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	Yes	$350	20.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$14	45.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	Yes	$31	31.0¢	Won

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Lost
Yes$25 @ 49.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 6?Won
No$397 @ 79.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on March 6?Lost
Yes$120 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 44.1¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$15 @ 2.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$249 @ 19.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.3¢
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Won
Yes$78 @ 57.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$300 @ 32.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Lost
Yes$3.4k @ 31.1¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 33.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$5.8k @ 30.5¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$39 @ 0.4¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$501 @ 42.9¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Lost
No$11 @ 9.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$200 @ 24.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Lost
Yes$100 @ 4.5¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 3.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Lost
Yes$114 @ 38.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 15.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: AprilWon
Nothing$3 @ 60.0¢
Seahawks vs. PatriotsWon
Seahawks$3 @ 69.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March?Lost
No$102 @ 51.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Lost
Yes$625 @ 28.4¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$21 @ 37.5¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$185 @ 37.1¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?Won
Yes$23 @ 23.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$185 @ 52.8¢
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$26 @ 14.4¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.2¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$5.8k @ 48.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$79 @ 26.3¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 28.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$90 @ 36.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$347 @ 32.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Lost
No$12 @ 29.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$70 @ 70.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 82.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$62 @ 15.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 12?Lost
No$20 @ 5.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 63.6¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?Lost
Yes$571 @ 8.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Lost
Yes$52 @ 25.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 59.1¢
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Won
Yes$350 @ 20.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$14 @ 45.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Won
Yes$31 @ 31.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$12.8k	39.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$1.9k	18.7¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$750	24.8¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$603	22.8¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$116	22.3¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$109	19.5¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$83	10.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$69	28.0¢
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Sports	Yes	$68	17.1¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$51	30.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$44	2.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$40	20.0¢
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$36	3.2¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$34	1.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$33	16.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$30	15.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28	7.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$27	27.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$16	40.6¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$14	12.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	13.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$8	6.0¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	3.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$5	54.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$4	3.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$4	36.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	3.3¢
Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	11.0¢
Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Sports	Yes	$1	1.9¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
No$12.8k @ 39.4¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$1.9k @ 18.7¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$750 @ 24.8¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$603 @ 22.8¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$116 @ 22.3¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$109 @ 19.5¢
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$83 @ 10.5¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$69 @ 28.0¢
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Sports
Yes$68 @ 17.1¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$51 @ 30.0¢
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$44 @ 2.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$36 @ 3.2¢
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$34 @ 1.7¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$33 @ 16.6¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$30 @ 15.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$28 @ 7.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$27 @ 27.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$16 @ 40.6¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$14 @ 12.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 13.0¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
Yes$8 @ 6.0¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 3.7¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$5 @ 54.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$4 @ 3.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$4 @ 36.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 3.3¢
Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will Florida Gators win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Sports
Yes$1 @ 1.9¢