0xca12…ea03

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xca12d28728c46d3484395243f5f842f2c321ea03
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.1pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

35% @ 32.3¢

Brier

0.103

Resolved

1848

Avg size

$20

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (150/389)	+19%	389
Tech	48% (78/163)	+24%	163
Culture	50% (41/82)	+7%	82
Geopolitics	38% (12/32)	-13%	32
Business	74% (14/19)	+14%	19
Economy	59% (10/17)	+24%	17
Politics	50% (2/4)	+28%	4
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+1%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other389 bets
Hit rate
39% (150/389)
ROI
+19%
Tech163 bets
Hit rate
48% (78/163)
ROI
+24%
Culture82 bets
Hit rate
50% (41/82)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics32 bets
Hit rate
38% (12/32)
ROI
-13%
Business19 bets
Hit rate
74% (14/19)
ROI
+14%
Economy17 bets
Hit rate
59% (10/17)
ROI
+24%
Politics4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+28%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+1%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

43% hit · 308/709

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 9 above $370?	No	$4	88.0¢	Won
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	$102	85.0¢	Won
Will BigFuture School be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	No	$34	85.3¢	Won
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	Yes	$2	49.0¢	Won
Will Chromagraph Camera be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	No	$42	85.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	No	$18	89.2¢	Won
Will PLAYFUL REWARDS: Earn Rewards be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	No	$37	93.0¢	Won
Will Tiny Computers be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	No	$99	82.4¢	Won
Will Chromagraph Camera be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?	No	$96	59.0¢	Won
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?	No	$101	84.0¢	Won
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Won
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	$6	27.0¢	Lost
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?	No	$23	13.0¢	Lost
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	$17	69.2¢	Lost
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027?	Yes	$318	87.0¢	Won
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027?	Yes	$672	86.0¢	Won
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?	No	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	$2	19.0¢	Lost
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	No	$185	16.4¢	Lost
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?	No	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$192	96.0¢	Won
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$51	93.4¢	Won
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$83	92.0¢	Won
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$37	91.0¢	Won
Will US gas hit $4.26 (High) the week of November 2?	No	$7	12.3¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?	No	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will play_music_theory be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	$8	15.2¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of September 21 2026?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	$3	36.4¢	Lost
Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?	Yes	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$3	0.7¢	Lost
Will ESPN Fantasy Sports & More be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	$27	53.0¢	Lost
Will "Resident Evil" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$1	1.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 53 and 56 million views on day 2?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?	Yes	$6	4.9¢	Lost
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	Yes	$13	1.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will gas hit $4.40 (High) by September 30?	No	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will gas hit $4.20 (High) by September 30?	No	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #2 song this week?	Yes	$0	0.0¢	Lost
Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	$52	12.4¢	Lost
Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?	Yes	$25	13.2¢	Lost
Will "Loser - Tame Impala" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	$8	3.8¢	Lost
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?	Yes	$1	3.5¢	Lost
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?	Yes	$6	15.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost

Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of November 9 above $370?Won
No$4 @ 88.0¢
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Won
No$102 @ 85.0¢
Will BigFuture School be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?Won
No$34 @ 85.3¢
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?Won
Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
Will Chromagraph Camera be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?Won
No$42 @ 85.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?Won
No$18 @ 89.2¢
Will PLAYFUL REWARDS: Earn Rewards be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?Won
No$37 @ 93.0¢
Will Tiny Computers be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?Won
No$99 @ 82.4¢
Will Chromagraph Camera be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 13?Won
No$96 @ 59.0¢
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$101 @ 84.0¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?Won
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?Lost
Yes$6 @ 27.0¢
Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #1 song this week?Lost
No$23 @ 13.0¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 song this week?Lost
Yes$17 @ 69.2¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027?Won
Yes$318 @ 87.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027?Won
Yes$672 @ 86.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 14.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 19.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$185 @ 16.4¢
Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 2.0¢
Will "Wild Horse Nine" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$192 @ 96.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 92 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$51 @ 93.4¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$83 @ 92.0¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" score at least 94 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
No$37 @ 91.0¢
Will US gas hit $4.26 (High) the week of November 2?Won
No$7 @ 12.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?Lost
No$6 @ 6.0¢
Will play_music_theory be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.2¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of September 21 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
Will play_music_theory be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?Lost
Yes$3 @ 36.4¢
Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Muse be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
No$1 @ 0.8¢
Will "Resident Evil" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
No$3 @ 0.7¢
Will ESPN Fantasy Sports & More be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 11?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 US song this week?Lost
Yes$27 @ 53.0¢
Will "Resident Evil" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
No$1 @ 1.2¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 53 and 56 million views on day 2?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.9¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will gas hit $4.40 (High) by September 30?Lost
No$2 @ 1.0¢
Will gas hit $4.20 (High) by September 30?Lost
No$1 @ 0.1¢
Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #2 song this week?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.0¢
Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #1 song this week?Lost
Yes$52 @ 12.4¢
Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?Lost
Yes$25 @ 13.2¢
Will "Loser - Tame Impala" be the #1 song this week?Lost
Yes$8 @ 3.8¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.5¢
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?Lost
Yes$6 @ 15.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 55 million views on day 3?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$7.0k	50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$7.0k	50.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 133.5 billion views by July 31?	—	Yes	$1.3k	37.1¢
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$824	64.7¢
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31?	—	Yes	$483	46.2¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$394	63.5¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$383	66.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$330	66.0¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$238	57.0¢
EU adopts Chinese telecom gear phase-out law by June 30, 2028?	Politics	No	$226	73.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$219	46.5¢
Will Drake be the third most streamed artist for 2026?	Culture	No	$213	64.2¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$204	42.9¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Economy	Yes	$187	59.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Economy	No	$185	76.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?	Politics	No	$185	37.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$185	16.4¢
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$181	63.6¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$163	81.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Economy	Yes	$162	64.3¢
Will Pruna have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Tech	No	$153	88.4¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$144	51.8¢
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Politics	No	$141	89.0¢
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	Other	No	$135	75.9¢
Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$128	40.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$128	24.6¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$115	38.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$111	70.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$106	75.0¢
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$102	85.0¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$7.0k @ 50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$7.0k @ 50.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 133.5 billion views by July 31?—
Yes$1.3k @ 37.1¢
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Culture
Yes$824 @ 64.7¢
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31?—
Yes$483 @ 46.2¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$394 @ 63.5¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$383 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 30?Politics
Yes$330 @ 66.0¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$238 @ 57.0¢
EU adopts Chinese telecom gear phase-out law by June 30, 2028?Politics
No$226 @ 73.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$219 @ 46.5¢
Will Drake be the third most streamed artist for 2026?Culture
No$213 @ 64.2¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
Yes$204 @ 42.9¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Economy
Yes$187 @ 59.7¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Economy
No$185 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?Politics
No$185 @ 37.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$185 @ 16.4¢
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$181 @ 63.6¢
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Geopolitics
No$163 @ 81.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?Economy
Yes$162 @ 64.3¢
Will Pruna have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?Tech
No$153 @ 88.4¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$144 @ 51.8¢
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?Politics
No$141 @ 89.0¢
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?Other
No$135 @ 75.9¢
Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026?Culture
Yes$128 @ 40.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$128 @ 24.6¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$115 @ 38.0¢
Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$111 @ 70.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Culture
Yes$106 @ 75.0¢
Will Gemini Hydrogen debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$102 @ 85.0¢