0x81e9…1812

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x81e930b91d3423d231cce7b32623cd4ceac51812
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.2pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

45% @ 42.7¢

Brier

0.174

Resolved

3724

Avg size

$23

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (235/478)	+0%	478
Politics	49% (48/97)	+17%	97
Geopolitics	77% (20/26)	+36%	26
Sports	38% (6/16)	-8%	16
Crypto	71% (5/7)	+114%	7
Tech	67% (4/6)	+47%	6
Science	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	100% (1/1)	+34%	1

Other478 bets
Hit rate
49% (235/478)
ROI
+0%
Politics97 bets
Hit rate
49% (48/97)
ROI
+17%
Geopolitics26 bets
Hit rate
77% (20/26)
ROI
+36%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
38% (6/16)
ROI
-8%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+114%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+47%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+34%

Track record

50% hit · 319/633

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?	No	$20	96.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas?	Yes	$16	36.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?	Yes	$5	23.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Dana White in August?	No	$2	1.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$929	59.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Top Five" or "Top Ten" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?	Yes	$18	30.0¢	Lost
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?	Yes	$112	83.0¢	Won
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$137	30.5¢	Lost
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?	Yes	$99	38.3¢	Lost
France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Morocco	$18	21.5¢	Lost
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$3	24.0¢	Lost
Over $50M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$25	93.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	No	$14	21.0¢	Lost
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$31	45.2¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$506	45.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	$10	87.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	$230	34.0¢	Lost
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	Yes	$101	68.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$60	32.0¢	Lost
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$71	64.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	$288	64.0¢	Lost
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$20	9.0¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$301	63.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$310	63.0¢	Lost
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$76	70.3¢	Won
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	No	$27	95.2¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	$50	22.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	No	$20	73.8¢	Won
Will Zacharia say "America First" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	$10	45.0¢	Won
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	No	$73	92.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$30	32.0¢	Won
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12?	No	$28	53.0¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	$11	84.1¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29?	Yes	$4	83.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 23?	No	$7	6.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 22?	No	$18	82.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 22?	Yes	$3	7.6¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?	No	$536	45.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$21	64.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	$346	50.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 7?	Yes	$3	17.2¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$34	19.7¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22?	No	$19	9.6¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22?	Yes	$46	87.4¢	Won
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$8	0.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$13	15.1¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?	Yes	$4	82.5¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$4	57.0¢	Won
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?	No	$142	50.0¢	Lost
Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?	Yes	$9	26.0¢	Lost

Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 14?Lost
No$20 @ 96.0¢
Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas?Lost
Yes$16 @ 36.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
Will Trump praise Dana White in August?Lost
No$2 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$929 @ 59.0¢
Will Trump say "Top Five" or "Top Ten" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Lost
Yes$18 @ 30.0¢
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?Won
Yes$112 @ 83.0¢
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
No$137 @ 30.5¢
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Lost
Yes$99 @ 38.3¢
France vs. Morocco: Team to AdvanceLost
Morocco$18 @ 21.5¢
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Lost
No$3 @ 24.0¢
Over $50M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
No$25 @ 93.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?Lost
No$14 @ 21.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
No$31 @ 45.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$506 @ 45.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Lost
No$230 @ 34.0¢
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Lost
Yes$101 @ 68.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$60 @ 32.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$71 @ 64.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$288 @ 64.0¢
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$20 @ 9.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$301 @ 63.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
No$310 @ 63.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
Yes$76 @ 70.3¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Lost
No$27 @ 95.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Won
No$20 @ 73.8¢
Will Zacharia say "America First" during the next White House Press Briefing?Won
Yes$10 @ 45.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Won
No$73 @ 92.0¢
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$30 @ 32.0¢
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12?Won
No$28 @ 53.0¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
Yes$11 @ 84.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29?Lost
Yes$4 @ 83.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 23?Lost
No$7 @ 6.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 22?Won
No$18 @ 82.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $88,000 on January 22?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.6¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24?Won
No$536 @ 45.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$21 @ 64.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Won
No$346 @ 50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 7?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.2¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$34 @ 19.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22?Lost
No$19 @ 9.6¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 22?Won
Yes$46 @ 87.4¢
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.5¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$13 @ 15.1¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?Won
Yes$4 @ 82.5¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$4 @ 57.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
No$142 @ 50.0¢
Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?Lost
Yes$9 @ 26.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$757	95.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$546	60.8¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$493	75.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$314	65.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$264	66.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$240	93.3¢
Tusk out by December 31?	Politics	No	$228	92.0¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$226	75.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$221	70.6¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$190	19.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Politics	No	$167	50.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$165	67.0¢
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$156	78.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$136	77.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$119	21.9¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$104	85.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$104	77.0¢
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$94	41.0¢
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Politics	Yes	$85	85.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$83	43.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$70	83.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$62	27.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$61	52.0¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$56	2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$56	47.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$55	95.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$52	23.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$52	65.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$48	56.0¢
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?	Politics	Yes	$25	67.0¢

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$757 @ 95.3¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$546 @ 60.8¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$493 @ 75.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$314 @ 65.0¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$264 @ 66.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$240 @ 93.3¢
Tusk out by December 31?Politics
No$228 @ 92.0¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$226 @ 75.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$221 @ 70.6¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$190 @ 19.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Politics
No$167 @ 50.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$165 @ 67.0¢
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$156 @ 78.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Politics
No$136 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$119 @ 21.9¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$104 @ 85.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$104 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?Politics
Yes$94 @ 41.0¢
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics
Yes$85 @ 85.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$83 @ 43.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$70 @ 83.0¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$62 @ 27.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$61 @ 52.0¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$56 @ 2.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$56 @ 47.5¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$55 @ 95.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$52 @ 23.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$52 @ 65.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$48 @ 56.0¢
Will Kyriakos Mitsotakis be the next Prime Minister of Greece?Politics
Yes$25 @ 67.0¢