0x81e9…1812

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x81e930b91d3423d231cce7b32623cd4ceac51812
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.2pp

ROI

+50%

Win rate

51% @ 38.8¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

400

Avg size

$31

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (32/66)	-7%	66
Politics	60% (15/25)	+19%	25
Tech	80% (4/5)	+62%	5
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+127%	3
Sports	50% (1/2)	-10%	2
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+26%	2

Other66 bets
Hit rate
48% (32/66)
ROI
-7%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
60% (15/25)
ROI
+19%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+62%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+127%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-10%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+26%

Track record

54% hit · 56/103

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$30	32.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$21	64.6¢	Won
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$8	0.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$182	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	25.9¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$366	49.4¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	$15	3.4¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$72	52.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$146	33.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$163	85.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$28	14.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$174	78.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$20	3.2¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$85	85.0¢	Won
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	$12	22.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.5k	28.5¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	51.4¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$52	87.0¢	Lost
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	$127	55.2¢	Won
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$5	1.1¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$23	68.0¢	Won
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	$48	82.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$344	76.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 1, 2026?	Yes	$119	88.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	49.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump dance on May 1, 2026?	Yes	$46	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$167	76.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	$8	9.0¢	Lost
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$29	2.1¢	Lost
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$144	72.3¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$1.6k	59.6¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	$197	87.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$38	89.3¢	Won
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$31	7.0¢	Lost
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$80	3.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	$31	17.0¢	Lost
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$50	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	$79	35.0¢	Lost
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$42	60.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	No	$124	50.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$102	42.5¢	Lost
Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	$7	1.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$175	38.0¢	Won
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$14	0.6¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	No	$29	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$12	47.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Beautiful Bill" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$62	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Obamacare" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$1	65.0¢	Won

Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$30 @ 32.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$21 @ 64.6¢
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$182 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 25.9¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$366 @ 49.4¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Lost
Yes$15 @ 3.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$72 @ 52.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$146 @ 33.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$163 @ 85.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 14.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$174 @ 78.2¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.2¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$85 @ 85.0¢
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
Yes$12 @ 22.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.5k @ 28.5¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 51.4¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$52 @ 87.0¢
Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
Yes$127 @ 55.2¢
Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$23 @ 68.0¢
Will Bulgaria be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?Lost
Yes$48 @ 82.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$344 @ 76.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 1, 2026?Won
Yes$119 @ 88.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 49.7¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 1, 2026?Won
Yes$46 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$167 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 9.0¢
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 2.1¢
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$144 @ 72.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 59.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?Won
No$197 @ 87.4¢
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?Won
Yes$38 @ 89.3¢
Will France win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 7.0¢
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$80 @ 3.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Lost
Yes$31 @ 17.0¢
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 0.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$79 @ 35.0¢
Will Montenegro advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Won
No$42 @ 60.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
No$124 @ 50.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$102 @ 42.5¢
Will Greece be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?Lost
Yes$7 @ 1.7¢
Will Trump say "American Dream" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$175 @ 38.0¢
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.6¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?Lost
No$29 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
Yes$12 @ 47.0¢
Will Trump say "Beautiful Bill" at The Villages on May 1?Won
Yes$62 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "Obamacare" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$1 @ 65.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$864	64.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$757	95.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$506	45.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$348	70.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	—	Yes	$346	69.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$314	65.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$261	87.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$240	93.3¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$226	75.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$221	70.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	—	No	$170	97.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$165	67.0¢
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	—	No	$156	78.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	—	No	$111	53.5¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$104	77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$83	43.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	—	Yes	$78	61.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Politics	No	$55	60.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	—	Yes	$50	59.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	Yes	$50	22.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	—	No	$22	43.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	—	No	$11	52.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Geopolitics	No	$4	76.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	—	No	$4	51.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$4	64.0¢
100kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	6.0¢

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$864 @ 64.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$757 @ 95.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$506 @ 45.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$348 @ 70.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?—
Yes$346 @ 69.2¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
No$314 @ 65.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$261 @ 87.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$240 @ 93.3¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?—
No$226 @ 75.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$221 @ 70.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?—
No$170 @ 97.5¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$165 @ 67.0¢
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?—
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?—
No$111 @ 53.5¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$104 @ 77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$83 @ 43.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?—
Yes$78 @ 61.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Politics
No$55 @ 60.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?—
Yes$50 @ 59.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
Yes$50 @ 22.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?—
No$22 @ 43.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?—
No$11 @ 52.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Geopolitics
No$4 @ 76.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?—
No$4 @ 51.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$4 @ 64.0¢
100kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢