0x81e9…1812

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x81e930b91d3423d231cce7b32623cd4ceac51812
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+7.8pp

ROI

+53%

Win rate

47% @ 39.7¢

Brier

0.241

Resolved

859

Avg size

$34

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (67/130)	+3%	130
Politics	51% (30/59)	+23%	59
Sports	43% (6/14)	-5%	14
Geopolitics	89% (8/9)	+68%	9
Tech	67% (4/6)	+47%	6
Crypto	80% (4/5)	+116%	5
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other130 bets
Hit rate
52% (67/130)
ROI
+3%
Politics59 bets
Hit rate
51% (30/59)
ROI
+23%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
-5%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
89% (8/9)
ROI
+68%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+47%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+116%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

53% hit · 119/224

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$96	23.1¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$445	89.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$351	72.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$32	11.0¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$20	17.8¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$4	83.0¢	Lost
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$13	72.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	Yes	$5	20.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Yes	$54	12.0¢	Lost
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$16	38.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	No	$17	36.5¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$175	77.7¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$78	61.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$50	59.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	No	$170	97.5¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	No	$283	96.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$109	55.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?	Yes	$10	48.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$38	17.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$97	90.3¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$50	22.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$24	12.2¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$14	51.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	53.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$82	40.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$11	52.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$82	41.0¢	Won
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	$171	61.6¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	$23	43.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$346	69.2¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$85	91.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	Yes	$102	51.0¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$70	35.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$3	41.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$29	53.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	No	$171	38.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Yes	$143	61.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	No	$65	66.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	Yes	$113	25.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	$10	48.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	No	$128	43.0¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$132	34.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	$55	60.0¢	Won
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?	Yes	$161	93.5¢	Won
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$54	2.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$473	84.0¢	Won
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$78	52.0¢	Won
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?	Yes	$8	60.0¢	Lost
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$5	22.0¢	Lost
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?	No	$140	90.0¢	Won

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$96 @ 23.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$445 @ 89.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$351 @ 72.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$32 @ 11.0¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
Yes$20 @ 17.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$4 @ 83.0¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$13 @ 72.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 20.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 12.0¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$16 @ 38.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Lost
No$17 @ 36.5¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$175 @ 77.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$78 @ 61.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$50 @ 59.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Won
No$170 @ 97.5¢
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?Won
No$283 @ 96.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$109 @ 55.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?Won
Yes$10 @ 48.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$38 @ 17.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$97 @ 90.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 22.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$14 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 53.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Won
Yes$82 @ 40.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$11 @ 52.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$82 @ 41.0¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Won
Yes$171 @ 61.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
Yes$23 @ 43.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$346 @ 69.2¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$85 @ 91.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?Lost
Yes$102 @ 51.0¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$70 @ 35.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 41.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 53.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Lost
No$171 @ 38.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Won
Yes$143 @ 61.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?Won
No$65 @ 66.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Won
Yes$113 @ 25.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Won
No$10 @ 48.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?Lost
No$128 @ 43.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$132 @ 34.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Won
No$55 @ 60.0¢
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?Won
Yes$161 @ 93.5¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$54 @ 2.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$473 @ 84.0¢
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$78 @ 52.0¢
Over $35M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
Yes$8 @ 60.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?Lost
No$5 @ 22.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Credible public sale?Won
No$140 @ 90.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$757	95.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$506	45.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$387	74.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$348	70.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$314	65.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$261	87.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$240	93.3¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?	—	No	$226	75.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$221	70.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$197	39.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$165	67.0¢
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	—	No	$156	78.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$104	77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$83	43.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$73	92.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$73	32.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	—	No	$70	83.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	Yes	$61	52.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$60	32.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$32	86.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$15	37.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$10	87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	—	No	$4	64.0¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	—	Yes	$3	66.0¢
100kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	6.0¢

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$757 @ 95.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$506 @ 45.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$387 @ 74.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$348 @ 70.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?—
No$314 @ 65.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$261 @ 87.0¢
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Politics
No$240 @ 93.3¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?—
No$226 @ 75.6¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$221 @ 70.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$197 @ 39.9¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$165 @ 67.0¢
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?—
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Geopolitics
Yes$104 @ 77.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$83 @ 43.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$73 @ 92.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$73 @ 32.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?—
No$70 @ 83.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
Yes$61 @ 52.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$60 @ 32.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
No$32 @ 86.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$15 @ 37.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$10 @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?—
No$4 @ 64.0¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?—
Yes$3 @ 66.0¢
100kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 6.0¢