0x836f…906e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x836ffd95ef3cf3c7987612279b2152b11ce6906e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.9pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

83% @ 77.2¢

Brier

0.118

Resolved

748

Avg size

$264

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	83% (33/40)	+10%	40
Other	74% (26/35)	+6%	35
Geopolitics	78% (21/27)	-4%	27
Sports	100% (1/1)	+26%	1

Politics40 bets
Hit rate
83% (33/40)
ROI
+10%
Other35 bets
Hit rate
74% (26/35)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics27 bets
Hit rate
78% (21/27)
ROI
-4%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+26%

Track record

79% hit · 81/103

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$6.0k	87.7¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	$2.2k	86.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$2.0k	85.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?	Yes	$79	63.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	No	$2.5k	86.5¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$2.0k	36.8¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$2.7k	84.2¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	Yes	$3.1k	85.1¢	Lost
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$219	81.2¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	No	$580	73.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$427	5.0¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$1.8k	83.5¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$6.4k	84.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$2.7k	82.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	86.5¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?	Yes	$1.3k	79.7¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$3.2k	81.1¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June?	No	$110	82.0¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$107	88.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	No	$31	69.0¢	Lost
Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 10+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	$16	79.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$2.0k	85.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$192	75.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$6.9k	84.8¢	Won
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?	No	$1.3k	79.5¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?	No	$1.2k	88.2¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$1.6k	88.3¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	No	$399	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	65.5¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	No	$629	85.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$611	76.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$1.9k	84.4¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$95	88.0¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	No	$220	47.0¢	Lost
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	Yes	$1.6k	62.5¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$595	74.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	$1.3k	88.2¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$1.7k	85.3¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$773	58.0¢	Won
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?	No	$27	89.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$968	78.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	Yes	$2.1k	58.4¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$3.5k	83.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$3.3k	85.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	$489	86.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$715	66.9¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	No	$2.3k	84.9¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?	Yes	$399	60.6¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?	No	$88	57.8¢	Won

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$6.0k @ 87.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Won
No$2.2k @ 86.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$2.0k @ 85.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?Won
Yes$79 @ 63.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
No$2.5k @ 86.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 36.8¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$2.7k @ 84.2¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Lost
Yes$3.1k @ 85.1¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$219 @ 81.2¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Won
No$580 @ 73.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$427 @ 5.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$1.8k @ 83.5¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$6.4k @ 84.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$2.7k @ 82.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.9k @ 86.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 79.7¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$3.2k @ 81.1¢
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June?Won
No$110 @ 82.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$107 @ 88.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Lost
No$31 @ 69.0¢
Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 10+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?Won
Yes$16 @ 79.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 85.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$192 @ 75.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
Yes$6.9k @ 84.8¢
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?Lost
No$1.3k @ 79.5¢
Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?Won
No$1.2k @ 88.2¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$1.6k @ 88.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Won
No$399 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 65.5¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Won
No$629 @ 85.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$611 @ 76.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 84.4¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$95 @ 88.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Lost
No$220 @ 47.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 62.5¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$595 @ 74.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 88.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 85.3¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$773 @ 58.0¢
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?Won
No$27 @ 89.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$968 @ 78.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 58.4¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$3.5k @ 83.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Won
No$3.3k @ 85.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
Yes$489 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$715 @ 66.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Won
No$2.3k @ 84.9¢
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Won
Yes$399 @ 60.6¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 22?Won
No$88 @ 57.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$18.5k	94.7¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$18.1k	90.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$17.5k	93.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$11.8k	93.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$9.3k	97.8¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$8.8k	94.1¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$6.4k	95.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?	Politics	No	$5.5k	91.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$4.3k	79.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$4.2k	86.7¢
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.3k	86.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$3.3k	88.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.2k	94.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.9k	86.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	No	$2.9k	63.2¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.9k	96.9¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.6k	89.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.5k	90.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	88.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.3k	95.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$2.1k	95.5¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?	Politics	No	$1.9k	95.6¢
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.8k	82.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	53.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.7k	78.6¢
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	94.8¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	91.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	No	$1.2k	92.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.2k	85.0¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	98.2¢

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$18.5k @ 94.7¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$18.1k @ 90.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$17.5k @ 93.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$11.8k @ 93.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?Geopolitics
No$9.3k @ 97.8¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$8.8k @ 94.1¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$6.4k @ 95.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by October 31?Politics
No$5.5k @ 91.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$4.3k @ 79.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$4.2k @ 86.7¢
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?Politics
No$3.3k @ 86.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$3.3k @ 88.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$3.2k @ 94.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.9k @ 86.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
No$2.9k @ 63.2¢
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$2.9k @ 96.9¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?Politics
No$2.6k @ 89.0¢
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.5k @ 90.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 88.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.3k @ 95.0¢
Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics
No$2.1k @ 95.5¢
Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31?Politics
No$1.9k @ 95.6¢
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?Politics
No$1.8k @ 82.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 53.1¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$1.7k @ 78.6¢
Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 94.8¢
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 91.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Tech
No$1.2k @ 92.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$1.2k @ 85.0¢
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 98.2¢