0x5109…5e9c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x510904c9a58f5c5ad799a1b44947077564175e9c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+12.4pp

ROI

+61%

Win rate

45% @ 32.2¢

Brier

0.239

Resolved

5618

Avg size

$197

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	32% (50/154)	+121%	154
Other	41% (57/139)	+21%	139
Geopolitics	15% (4/27)	-46%	27
Sports	38% (5/13)	+133%	13
Tech	20% (2/10)	-81%	10
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+22%	2
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+178%	1

Politics154 bets
Hit rate
32% (50/154)
ROI
+121%
Other139 bets
Hit rate
41% (57/139)
ROI
+21%
Geopolitics27 bets
Hit rate
15% (4/27)
ROI
-46%
Sports13 bets
Hit rate
38% (5/13)
ROI
+133%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
-81%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+22%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+178%

Track record

35% hit · 120/347

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$12.1k	43.7¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$12.2k	27.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	$37	67.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	33.1¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$57	11.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	No	$44	19.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$180	46.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$60	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	$54	37.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$57.6k	28.9¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	37.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$403	16.1¢	Lost
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	No	$56	0.9¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	Yes	$730	7.2¢	Lost
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	$8	7.6¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	No	$70	30.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?	Yes	$212	4.7¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?	No	$57	54.8¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?	Yes	$442	39.8¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	Yes	$12.7k	43.2¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$853	27.1¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$53	66.3¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	No	$854	57.4¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$836	45.3¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$218	4.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$8.9k	25.9¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$170	3.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$103	41.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	29.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$23.8k	13.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$23.5k	40.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$4.0k	14.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	$400	20.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	14.5¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$1.1k	22.5¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$454	52.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$487	16.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	$578	56.0¢	Won
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$6	1.5¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$544	61.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$195	1.3¢	Lost
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$375	75.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$631	12.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$173	39.7¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	26.1¢	Won
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$16	42.0¢	Lost
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$650	58.4¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	Yes	$174	1.2¢	Lost

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$12.1k @ 43.7¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$12.2k @ 27.9¢
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
Yes$37 @ 67.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 33.1¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$57 @ 11.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$44 @ 19.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$180 @ 46.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$60 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?Won
No$54 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$57.6k @ 28.9¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 37.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$403 @ 16.1¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
No$56 @ 0.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
Yes$730 @ 7.2¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 7.6¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
No$70 @ 30.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$212 @ 4.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Lost
No$57 @ 54.8¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Won
Yes$442 @ 39.8¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Won
Yes$12.7k @ 43.2¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$853 @ 27.1¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$53 @ 66.3¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Lost
No$854 @ 57.4¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?Won
Yes$836 @ 45.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$218 @ 4.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$8.9k @ 25.9¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$170 @ 3.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 29.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$23.8k @ 13.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$23.5k @ 40.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$4.0k @ 14.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$400 @ 20.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 14.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
No$1.1k @ 22.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$454 @ 52.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$487 @ 16.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
No$578 @ 56.0¢
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 1.5¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$544 @ 61.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$195 @ 1.3¢
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$375 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$631 @ 12.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$173 @ 39.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 26.1¢
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
No$16 @ 42.0¢
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Won
Yes$650 @ 58.4¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
Yes$174 @ 1.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Politics	No	$53.2k	69.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$16.8k	45.8¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$6.9k	11.6¢
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Politics	Yes	$5.6k	10.4¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$2.5k	55.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2.5k	33.7¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	22.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$1.6k	22.9¢
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.3k	70.9¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1.0k	10.0¢
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$800	8.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$697	26.3¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$473	2.6¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$462	1.0¢
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Tech	Yes	$440	22.0¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Tech	Yes	$376	25.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$277	8.4¢
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$245	1.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	Yes	$194	8.2¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$175	3.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$160	4.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$141	4.8¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$121	18.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	No	$99	43.0¢
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$79	0.8¢
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$79	0.8¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$79	0.8¢
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$79	0.8¢
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$79	0.8¢
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$79	0.8¢

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Politics
No$53.2k @ 69.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$16.8k @ 45.8¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$6.9k @ 11.6¢
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Politics
Yes$5.6k @ 10.4¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$2.5k @ 55.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
Yes$2.5k @ 33.7¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 22.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$1.6k @ 22.9¢
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Politics
No$1.3k @ 70.9¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$1.0k @ 10.0¢
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$800 @ 8.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$697 @ 26.3¢
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$473 @ 2.6¢
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$462 @ 1.0¢
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Tech
Yes$440 @ 22.0¢
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?Tech
Yes$376 @ 25.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$277 @ 8.4¢
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$245 @ 1.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
Yes$194 @ 8.2¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$175 @ 3.5¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$160 @ 4.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$141 @ 4.8¢
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$121 @ 18.3¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
No$99 @ 43.0¢
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$79 @ 0.8¢