0x5109…5e9c

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics111 bets

  Hit rate

  28% (31/111)

  ROI

  +112%

• Other86 bets

  Hit rate

  37% (32/86)

  ROI

  +26%

• Geopolitics22 bets

  Hit rate

  9% (2/22)

  ROI

  -50%

• Sports12 bets

  Hit rate

  42% (5/12)

  ROI

  +134%

• Tech8 bets

  Hit rate

  25% (2/8)

  ROI

  -81%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +22%

• Science1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
  No$12.1k @ 43.7¢
• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$12.2k @ 27.9¢
• Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
  Yes$37 @ 67.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.0k @ 41.9¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.7k @ 33.1¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$57 @ 11.5¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$44 @ 19.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
  No$180 @ 46.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
  Yes$60 @ 6.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$57.6k @ 28.9¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.1k @ 37.0¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
  Yes$403 @ 16.1¢
• Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Lost
  No$56 @ 0.9¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 7?Lost
  Yes$730 @ 7.2¢
• Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Lost
  No$70 @ 30.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
  Yes$354 @ 36.0¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
  Yes$386 @ 70.0¢
• Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$933 @ 15.7¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$218 @ 4.3¢
• Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
  No$8.9k @ 25.9¢
• Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
  Yes$170 @ 3.4¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$103 @ 41.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.4k @ 29.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$23.8k @ 13.8¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
  Yes$681 @ 9.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$23.5k @ 40.9¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
  Yes$4.0k @ 14.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$1.5k @ 14.5¢
• Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
• Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Lost
  No$1.1k @ 22.5¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
  No$454 @ 52.7¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
  Yes$487 @ 16.2¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
• Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 1.5¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$544 @ 61.8¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$195 @ 1.3¢
• Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Lost
  Yes$375 @ 75.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
  No$631 @ 12.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
  Yes$173 @ 39.7¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Lost
  Yes$174 @ 1.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$2.2k @ 19.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$136 @ 7.4¢
• Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
  No$758 @ 45.9¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$4.5k @ 7.4¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$190 @ 28.4¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$28.2k @ 25.8¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$61.3k @ 4.8¢
• Starmer out by June 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 0.7¢
• UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Prelims)Won
  Colby Thicknesse$542 @ 55.0¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
  Yes$1.4k @ 14.9¢

Current positions

• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$2.8k @ 45.7¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  No$2.7k @ 57.7¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  Yes$2.5k @ 33.7¢
• Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
  Yes$1.6k @ 22.7¢
• Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  No$1.6k @ 52.0¢
• Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?Politics
  No$1.5k @ 70.9¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
  No$1.3k @ 35.9¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.1k @ 46.7¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  Yes$697 @ 26.3¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
  No$510 @ 17.6¢
• Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$473 @ 2.6¢
• Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$462 @ 1.0¢
• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
  Yes$432 @ 23.4¢
• Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
  No$418 @ 74.6¢
• Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
  No$318 @ 31.4¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$277 @ 8.4¢
• Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$245 @ 1.6¢
• Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$175 @ 3.5¢
• Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$160 @ 4.0¢
• Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
  No$144 @ 97.1¢
• Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$141 @ 4.8¢
• Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$121 @ 18.3¢
• Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
• Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
• Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
• Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
• Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
• Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
• Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 0.8¢
• Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$79 @ 0.8¢