0x9dfe…b3dd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9dfe2f73d3c988a9d69df8fa0beb85651340b3dd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

63% @ 55.1¢

Brier

0.195

Resolved

5298

Avg size

$176

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (299/515)	+13%	515
Politics	72% (47/65)	+9%	65
Geopolitics	86% (19/22)	+47%	22
Crypto	56% (9/16)	+114%	16
Tech	64% (9/14)	+25%	14
Sports	50% (3/6)	+23%	6

Other515 bets
Hit rate
58% (299/515)
ROI
+13%
Politics65 bets
Hit rate
72% (47/65)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics22 bets
Hit rate
86% (19/22)
ROI
+47%
Crypto16 bets
Hit rate
56% (9/16)
ROI
+114%
Tech14 bets
Hit rate
64% (9/14)
ROI
+25%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
+23%

Track record

61% hit · 386/638

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?	No	$451	61.4¢	Won
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	No	$1.0k	79.0¢	Won
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?	Yes	$58	23.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	$3.5k	50.0¢	Won
Epstein client list released in 2025?	No	$857	75.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?	No	$77	43.0¢	Lost
No airdrop in 2025?	Yes	$41	14.0¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$3	23.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$1.3k	62.4¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?	Yes	$2.0k	41.9¢	Won
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	$1.2k	84.9¢	Won
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	Yes	$409	23.0¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	No	$234	76.0¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	Yes	$2.1k	80.6¢	Won
Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?	Yes	$231	26.0¢	Lost
Will Bryan Johnson say "Goth Girl" while tripping balls?	Yes	$9	50.0¢	Lost
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?	No	$480	48.1¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?	No	$181	63.0¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$8.3k	50.4¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$2.3k	45.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.7k	29.3¢	Lost
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?	No	$186	20.4¢	Lost
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?	Yes	$557	52.1¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$456	88.8¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1	No	$8.6k	49.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1	Yes	$4.5k	73.9¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$365	73.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$1.1k	56.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	37.0¢	Won
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$1.2k	73.1¢	Won
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$4.9k	47.3¢	Lost
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$4.1k	35.2¢	Won
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?	No	$890	89.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Yes	$440	67.1¢	Won
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?	No	$160	16.0¢	Lost
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$2.1k	38.0¢	Won
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$13	86.0¢	Won
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$201	23.8¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1?	No	$850	85.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$800	80.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$6.0k	48.8¢	Won
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?	No	$169	50.6¢	Won
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$1.7k	36.9¢	Lost
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$3.9k	51.9¢	Won
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$852	85.2¢	Won
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	$749	38.8¢	Lost
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	$160	37.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$317	21.1¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$550	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during announcement today?	Yes	$30	30.0¢	Won

Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?Won
No$451 @ 61.4¢
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Won
No$1.0k @ 79.0¢
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?Lost
Yes$58 @ 23.2¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Won
No$3.5k @ 50.0¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Won
No$857 @ 75.6¢
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in November?Lost
No$77 @ 43.0¢
No airdrop in 2025?Lost
Yes$41 @ 14.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$3 @ 23.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 62.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 41.9¢
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Won
No$1.2k @ 84.9¢
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Lost
Yes$409 @ 23.0¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Won
No$234 @ 76.0¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 80.6¢
Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?Lost
Yes$231 @ 26.0¢
Will Bryan Johnson say "Goth Girl" while tripping balls?Lost
Yes$9 @ 50.0¢
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 20?Won
No$480 @ 48.1¢
Will Khamenei tweet every day through March 27?Won
No$181 @ 63.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$8.3k @ 50.4¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 45.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.7k @ 29.3¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Lost
No$186 @ 20.4¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?Won
Yes$557 @ 52.1¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$456 @ 88.8¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1Won
No$8.6k @ 49.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1Lost
Yes$4.5k @ 73.9¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$365 @ 73.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 56.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 37.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 73.1¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Lost
No$4.9k @ 47.3¢
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
Yes$4.1k @ 35.2¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?Won
No$890 @ 89.0¢
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?Won
Yes$440 @ 67.1¢
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?Lost
No$160 @ 16.0¢
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 38.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
No$13 @ 86.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Lost
Yes$201 @ 23.8¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 55 million or more views on day 1?Won
No$850 @ 85.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$800 @ 80.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$6.0k @ 48.8¢
Odds of US x Venezuela military engagement in 2025 on Monday over 50%?Won
No$169 @ 50.6¢
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$1.7k @ 36.9¢
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 51.9¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$852 @ 85.2¢
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Lost
Yes$749 @ 38.8¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Won
No$160 @ 37.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$317 @ 21.1¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$550 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during announcement today?Won
Yes$30 @ 30.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$12.0k	91.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$6.8k	84.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$6.1k	73.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5.9k	68.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$3.7k	74.0¢
Tusk out by December 31?	Politics	No	$2.3k	92.0¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$2.3k	75.4¢
Nawrocki out by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.4k	94.0¢
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$1.2k	67.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$32	46.0¢

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$12.0k @ 91.0¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$6.8k @ 84.9¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$6.1k @ 73.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$5.9k @ 68.2¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$3.7k @ 74.0¢
Tusk out by December 31?Politics
No$2.3k @ 92.0¢
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$2.3k @ 75.4¢
Nawrocki out by December 31?Politics
No$1.4k @ 94.0¢
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
No$1.2k @ 67.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto
No$32 @ 46.0¢