0x5874…05f7

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x58744f91ed701afdc02d55b0467b09ce62c505f7
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.2pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

38% @ 34.4¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

4856

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (373/1155)	+9%	1155
Politics	32% (31/96)	-16%	96
Sports	32% (13/41)	+23%	41
Geopolitics	33% (12/36)	-25%	36
Crypto	68% (13/19)	+10%	19
Tech	36% (4/11)	-23%	11
Business	0% (0/8)	-100%	8
Economy	50% (2/4)	-74%	4
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other1155 bets
Hit rate
32% (373/1155)
ROI
+9%
Politics96 bets
Hit rate
32% (31/96)
ROI
-16%
Sports41 bets
Hit rate
32% (13/41)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics36 bets
Hit rate
33% (12/36)
ROI
-25%
Crypto19 bets
Hit rate
68% (13/19)
ROI
+10%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
-23%
Business8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-74%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

33% hit · 448/1371

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	$2	23.0¢	Lost
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?	Yes	$1	3.4¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?	No	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will Georgia win the 2025 SEC Championship Game?	No	$5	20.7¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$21	42.2¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition	No	$29	48.5¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$8	51.7¢	Lost
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?	Yes	$0	2.5¢	Lost
Will the Georgia Bulldogs be the #2 seed in the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff?	No	$7	17.5¢	Won
Will the Georgia Bulldogs be the #2 seed in the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff?	Yes	$16	80.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?	No	$54	67.0¢	Won
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	No	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27?	No	$2	8.0¢	Won
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?	Yes	$1	6.7¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$5	2.4¢	Lost
Will fewer than 330 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$18	22.9¢	Lost
Will Texas make the College Football Playoff?	Yes	$6	4.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	$13	64.0¢	Won
Will Vanderbilt advance to the Final Four?	Yes	$0	6.0¢	Lost
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats	Villanova Wildcats	$2	46.0¢	Lost
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$8	84.0¢	Won
Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?	Yes	$3	60.0¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$5	49.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	No	$9	85.0¢	Won
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines	Arizona Wildcats	$6	31.5¢	Lost
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
US bank failure by March 31?	Yes	$11	18.0¢	Won
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games?	No	$14	70.0¢	Won
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games?	Yes	$3	7.9¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $240 in October?	No	$5	50.0¢	Won
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	$3	65.1¢	Won
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$3	17.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$24	79.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$57	42.2¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	Yes	$30	48.3¢	Lost
Will between 340 and 349 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?	No	$39	64.8¢	Won
Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?	Yes	$4	37.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?	Yes	$3	19.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$4	37.0¢	Lost
Will Texas A&M make the College Football Playoff?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 46.5	Over	$1	10.9¢	Won

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.4¢
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October?Lost
No$1 @ 17.0¢
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Georgia win the 2025 SEC Championship Game?Lost
No$5 @ 20.7¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 42.2¢
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel EditionWon
No$29 @ 48.5¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$8 @ 51.7¢
Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $640 in April?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.5¢
Will the Georgia Bulldogs be the #2 seed in the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff?Won
No$7 @ 17.5¢
Will the Georgia Bulldogs be the #2 seed in the 2025-2026 College Football Playoff?Lost
Yes$16 @ 80.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?Won
No$54 @ 67.0¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Lost
No$1 @ 13.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 27?Won
No$2 @ 8.0¢
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.7¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of March?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 9?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.4¢
Will fewer than 330 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$18 @ 22.9¢
Will Texas make the College Football Playoff?Lost
Yes$6 @ 4.4¢
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
Yes$13 @ 64.0¢
Will Vanderbilt advance to the Final Four?Lost
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova WildcatsLost
Villanova Wildcats$2 @ 46.0¢
Trump cabinet member out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 84.0¢
Will Lee Zeldin be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?Lost
Yes$3 @ 60.0¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$5 @ 49.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Won
No$9 @ 85.0¢
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan WolverinesLost
Arizona Wildcats$6 @ 31.5¢
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
US bank failure by March 31?Won
Yes$11 @ 18.0¢
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games?Won
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.9¢
Will Solana reach $240 in October?Won
No$5 @ 50.0¢
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Won
No$3 @ 65.1¢
Will Howard Lutnick be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
Yes$24 @ 79.0¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$57 @ 42.2¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Lost
Yes$30 @ 48.3¢
Will between 340 and 349 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?Won
No$39 @ 64.8¢
Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?Lost
Yes$4 @ 37.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$4 @ 7.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19?Lost
Yes$3 @ 19.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 37.0¢
Will Texas A&M make the College Football Playoff?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 46.5Won
Over$1 @ 10.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	Crypto	No	$186	79.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	Crypto	No	$147	87.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$124	71.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?	Crypto	No	$103	91.4¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$98	71.2¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$97	38.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Crypto	No	$94	93.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$72	68.4¢
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Politics	No	$57	53.8¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?	Other	No	$56	65.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	Other	No	$55	68.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$53	32.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$50	76.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$49	70.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$49	70.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Other	No	$48	80.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$48	53.1¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$47	78.3¢
Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$42	84.6¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$41	73.7¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$39	64.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$38	76.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$38	54.7¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$38	84.1¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$34	85.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Politics	No	$34	46.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?	Other	No	$33	82.3¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$32	65.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$29	52.1¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$28	19.4¢

Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?Crypto
No$186 @ 79.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?Crypto
No$147 @ 87.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$124 @ 71.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?Crypto
No$103 @ 91.4¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$98 @ 71.2¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$97 @ 38.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?Crypto
No$94 @ 93.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$72 @ 68.4¢
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Politics
No$57 @ 53.8¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?Other
No$56 @ 65.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?Other
No$55 @ 68.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$53 @ 32.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$50 @ 76.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$49 @ 70.6¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$49 @ 70.4¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?Other
No$48 @ 80.5¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$48 @ 53.1¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$47 @ 78.3¢
Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$42 @ 84.6¢
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$41 @ 73.7¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$39 @ 64.5¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?Economy
Yes$38 @ 76.8¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?Economy
Yes$38 @ 54.7¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$38 @ 84.1¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$34 @ 85.5¢
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
No$34 @ 46.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?Other
No$33 @ 82.3¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$32 @ 65.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$29 @ 52.1¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$28 @ 19.4¢