0x9c26…74bc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9c2617462567859fcf5764e03b9a687ebca274bc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.9pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

87% @ 72.5¢

Brier

0.137

Resolved

1346

Avg size

$771

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	88% (37/42)	+5%	42
Other	67% (12/18)	+4%	18
Geopolitics	90% (9/10)	+3%	10
Sports	80% (4/5)	-39%	5
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+1%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Politics42 bets
Hit rate
88% (37/42)
ROI
+5%
Other18 bets
Hit rate
67% (12/18)
ROI
+4%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
90% (9/10)
ROI
+3%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
-39%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+1%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Track record

84% hit · 66/79

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$17.0k	85.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	$4.2k	70.1¢	Won
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	$10.9k	87.0¢	Won
Paraguay vs. France: Team to Advance	France	$2.0k	86.0¢	Won
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	$26.2k	87.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$1.3k	28.7¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$1.8k	89.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	Yes	$200	20.0¢	Lost
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	$4.4k	88.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$9.6k	80.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$92.4k	87.1¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$829	74.2¢	Won
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	No	$210	14.0¢	Lost
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	$2.3k	67.0¢	Won
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$64.9k	78.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$52.6k	82.1¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5.6k	56.2¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Brazil	$680	68.0¢	Lost
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?	Yes	$1.4k	68.5¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	40.6¢	Lost
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?	Yes	$221	79.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$20.7k	66.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	Yes	$2.0k	40.5¢	Lost
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.4k	69.0¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	No	$9.2k	97.2¢	Won
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?	No	$618	89.0¢	Won
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	France	$1.9k	38.8¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$71.3k	94.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	No	$15.8k	92.3¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$29.4k	90.4¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$10.9k	73.0¢	Won
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$42.6k	97.3¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$413	80.0¢	Won
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$25.8k	97.9¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$8.8k	88.0¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$8.8k	88.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$3.4k	76.0¢	Lost
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	$98.7k	98.7¢	Won
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$42.4k	90.4¢	Won
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	$837	92.0¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$36.7k	95.5¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$6.1k	99.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$7.9k	79.5¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$34.1k	89.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$19.6k	99.5¢	Won
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	$3.8k	95.7¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$19.0k	95.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$2.7k	45.0¢	Lost
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	$2.3k	79.0¢	Won
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$9.6k	96.0¢	Won

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$17.0k @ 85.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
Yes$4.2k @ 70.1¢
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
Yes$10.9k @ 87.0¢
Paraguay vs. France: Team to AdvanceWon
France$2.0k @ 86.0¢
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?Won
No$26.2k @ 87.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 28.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$1.8k @ 89.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 20.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
No$4.4k @ 88.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$9.6k @ 80.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$92.4k @ 87.1¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$829 @ 74.2¢
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Lost
No$210 @ 14.0¢
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Won
No$2.3k @ 67.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$64.9k @ 78.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$52.6k @ 82.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$5.6k @ 56.2¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceLost
Brazil$680 @ 68.0¢
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 68.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 40.6¢
Will Union Bordeaux Begles win?Won
Yes$221 @ 79.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$20.7k @ 66.0¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 40.5¢
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 69.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Won
No$9.2k @ 97.2¢
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Won
No$618 @ 89.0¢
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceLost
France$1.9k @ 38.8¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$71.3k @ 94.0¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Won
No$15.8k @ 92.3¢
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$29.4k @ 90.4¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
Yes$10.9k @ 73.0¢
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$42.6k @ 97.3¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$413 @ 80.0¢
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$25.8k @ 97.9¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$8.8k @ 88.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
Yes$8.8k @ 88.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$3.4k @ 76.0¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Won
No$98.7k @ 98.7¢
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$42.4k @ 90.4¢
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?Won
Yes$837 @ 92.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$36.7k @ 95.5¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$6.1k @ 99.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$7.9k @ 79.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$34.1k @ 89.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$19.6k @ 99.5¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Won
No$3.8k @ 95.7¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$19.0k @ 95.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$2.7k @ 45.0¢
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 79.0¢
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$9.6k @ 96.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$62.9k	78.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$35.6k	79.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$21.3k	82.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$12.5k	90.0¢
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$396	93.7¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$62.9k @ 78.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$35.6k @ 79.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$21.3k @ 82.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$12.5k @ 90.0¢
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$396 @ 93.7¢