0xf16d…b7f9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xf16dd3586eb9ca2b002a0498548b15439991b7f9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.3pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

39% @ 35.6¢

Brier

0.178

Resolved

1854

Avg size

$20

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (44/121)	-8%	121
Science	45% (53/118)	-3%	118
Politics	30% (11/37)	+19%	37
Sports	38% (11/29)	+9%	29
Culture	33% (3/9)	+20%	9
Tech	50% (2/4)	+108%	4
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+18%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other121 bets
Hit rate
36% (44/121)
ROI
-8%
Science118 bets
Hit rate
45% (53/118)
ROI
-3%
Politics37 bets
Hit rate
30% (11/37)
ROI
+19%
Sports29 bets
Hit rate
38% (11/29)
ROI
+9%
Culture9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
+20%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+108%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

39% hit · 125/322

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 20?	Yes	$88	47.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 20?	No	$248	63.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 20?	No	$10	22.7¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 20?	Yes	$21	29.6¢	Lost
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$1	2.9¢	Lost
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	$111	10.2¢	Lost
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$84	90.4¢	Won
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$2	2.1¢	Lost
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$9	3.5¢	Lost
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	Yes	$3	3.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on October 5?	No	$52	66.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on October 5?	Yes	$96	35.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 20?	Yes	$8	13.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on October 10?	No	$16	68.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on October 10?	Yes	$18	15.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?	No	$44	39.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?	Yes	$27	49.7¢	Won
Will Cuba win on 2026-09-28?	No	$37	15.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 31 million or more views on day 2?	No	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on September 22?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid?	No	$2	79.0¢	Won
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid?	Yes	$1	11.4¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	$51	49.5¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	$35	6.4¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Yes	$12	2.8¢	Lost
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Maldives: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$27	34.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by July 31?	Yes	$84	4.3¢	Lost
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?	No	$35	7.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 5?	No	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 5?	Yes	$62	25.7¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	No	$250	45.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on October 14?	No	$13	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?	No	$14	73.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?	Yes	$5	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 5?	No	$79	64.0¢	Won
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	No	$79	16.0¢	Lost
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?	Yes	$243	81.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	No	$79	65.5¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	Yes	$3	36.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 9?	No	$40	63.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 9?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 5?	No	$56	63.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 5?	Yes	$42	33.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 7?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Lost
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	$6	6.8¢	Lost
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	$25	76.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp - Game 2 Winner	Spirit Academy	$273	22.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 9?	No	$40	78.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 9?	Yes	$15	27.0¢	Lost
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?	No	$43	83.0¢	Won

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 20?Won
Yes$88 @ 47.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 20?Won
No$248 @ 63.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 20?Lost
No$10 @ 22.7¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 20?Lost
Yes$21 @ 29.6¢
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
No$111 @ 10.2¢
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Won
Yes$84 @ 90.4¢
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.1¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.5¢
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on October 5?Won
No$52 @ 66.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on October 5?Lost
Yes$96 @ 35.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on August 20?Lost
Yes$8 @ 13.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on October 10?Won
No$16 @ 68.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on October 10?Lost
Yes$18 @ 15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?Lost
No$44 @ 39.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 9?Won
Yes$27 @ 49.7¢
Will Cuba win on 2026-09-28?Lost
No$37 @ 15.0¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 31 million or more views on day 2?Lost
No$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid?Won
No$2 @ 79.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.4¢
Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Won
Yes$51 @ 49.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?Lost
Yes$35 @ 6.4¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.8¢
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Maldives: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$27 @ 34.0¢
Iran leadership change by July 31?Lost
Yes$84 @ 4.3¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?Lost
No$35 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 5?Lost
No$1 @ 1.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on October 5?Won
Yes$62 @ 25.7¢
Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Won
No$250 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on October 14?Won
No$13 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?Won
No$14 @ 73.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?Lost
Yes$5 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on October 5?Won
No$79 @ 64.0¢
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Lost
No$79 @ 16.0¢
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?Won
Yes$243 @ 81.0¢
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Won
No$79 @ 65.5¢
Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Lost
Yes$3 @ 36.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 9?Won
No$40 @ 63.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on October 9?Lost
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 5?Lost
No$56 @ 63.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on October 5?Won
Yes$42 @ 33.6¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on September 7?Lost
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Lost
No$6 @ 6.8¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Won
Yes$25 @ 76.0¢
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp - Game 2 WinnerLost
Spirit Academy$273 @ 22.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 9?Won
No$40 @ 78.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on October 9?Lost
Yes$15 @ 27.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?Won
No$43 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Rippling IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$278	22.2¢
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$271	21.7¢
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$263	21.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 20?	Science	No	$248	63.0¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$232	26.7¢
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$225	19.4¢
Vanta IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$224	22.4¢
Celonis IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$223	23.6¢
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$221	21.0¢
Ramp IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$220	30.2¢
Jonathan Majors as Kang?	Culture	No	$213	92.9¢
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$211	17.4¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$204	23.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$170	39.0¢
Ledger IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$144	35.2¢
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?	Politics	Yes	$135	31.3¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$120	29.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$117	40.1¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$113	18.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 21?	Politics	No	$97	54.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 30%-35%?	Politics	Yes	$96	32.0¢
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?	Crypto	Yes	$93	20.5¢
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel?	Culture	Yes	$91	50.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 20?	Science	Yes	$88	47.5¢
Deel IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$87	27.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$80	26.7¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$76	26.3¢
Remote IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$64	18.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$62	20.7¢
Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?	Politics	No	$58	30.2¢

Rippling IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$278 @ 22.2¢
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?Politics
Yes$271 @ 21.7¢
Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$263 @ 21.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on October 20?Science
No$248 @ 63.0¢
Anduril IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$232 @ 26.7¢
Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$225 @ 19.4¢
Vanta IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$224 @ 22.4¢
Celonis IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$223 @ 23.6¢
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$221 @ 21.0¢
Ramp IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$220 @ 30.2¢
Jonathan Majors as Kang?Culture
No$213 @ 92.9¢
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$211 @ 17.4¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$204 @ 23.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
No$170 @ 39.0¢
Ledger IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$144 @ 35.2¢
Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year?Politics
Yes$135 @ 31.3¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
No$120 @ 29.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$117 @ 40.1¢
Mistral AI IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$113 @ 18.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 21?Politics
No$97 @ 54.3¢
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 30%-35%?Politics
Yes$96 @ 32.0¢
Kraken IPO closing market cap above $20B?Crypto
Yes$93 @ 20.5¢
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel?Culture
Yes$91 @ 50.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 20?Science
Yes$88 @ 47.5¢
Deel IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$87 @ 27.6¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
Yes$80 @ 26.7¢
Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$76 @ 26.3¢
Remote IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$64 @ 18.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$62 @ 20.7¢
Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?Politics
No$58 @ 30.2¢