0x8c66…44f3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8c66e28fbe7ede7f57ba6cbc70408dff442944f3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.4pp

ROI

+30%

Win rate

56% @ 44.9¢

Brier

0.142

Resolved

1768

Avg size

$688

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	42% (28/67)	+35%	67
Other	39% (13/33)	+36%	33
Geopolitics	60% (18/30)	+26%	30

Politics67 bets
Hit rate
42% (28/67)
ROI
+35%
Other33 bets
Hit rate
39% (13/33)
ROI
+36%
Geopolitics30 bets
Hit rate
60% (18/30)
ROI
+26%

Track record

45% hit · 59/130

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$415	44.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$1.3k	12.7¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	$1.2k	13.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$3.1k	19.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$585	9.0¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?	No	$753	61.8¢	Won
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$7.0k	83.9¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$1.9k	11.6¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$626	33.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$24.0k	15.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$3.6k	53.4¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$96	40.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$840	21.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?	Yes	$196	19.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$946	61.6¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	$9.4k	54.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$3.4k	83.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$385	77.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$21	4.8¢	Lost
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$57	78.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	$2.2k	32.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$1.2k	7.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$4.4k	79.5¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$11.8k	14.2¢	Lost
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	No	$370	8.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$302.9k	70.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$31.4k	19.8¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?	Yes	$1.5k	13.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$970	80.8¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$1.5k	76.9¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$2.0k	26.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$11.8k	84.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$197	43.7¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$2.3k	40.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$9.3k	57.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$888	11.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$16.0k	74.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$2.4k	7.9¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$6.8k	40.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$11.0k	61.0¢	Lost
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8.7k	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$24.3k	76.7¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$4.4k	10.9¢	Lost
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$116	11.1¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	$19	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$6.2k	82.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$24.9k	22.6¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	61.0¢	Lost

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$415 @ 44.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 12.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 13.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$3.1k @ 19.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$585 @ 9.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?Won
No$753 @ 61.8¢
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$7.0k @ 83.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 11.6¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$626 @ 33.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$24.0k @ 15.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$3.6k @ 53.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$96 @ 40.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$840 @ 21.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Won
Yes$196 @ 19.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$946 @ 61.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Lost
No$9.4k @ 54.5¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$3.4k @ 83.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$385 @ 77.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$21 @ 4.8¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$57 @ 78.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 32.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 7.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$4.4k @ 79.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$11.8k @ 14.2¢
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
No$370 @ 8.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$302.9k @ 70.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$31.4k @ 19.8¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 13.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$970 @ 80.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$1.5k @ 76.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 26.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$11.8k @ 84.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$197 @ 43.7¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 40.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$9.3k @ 57.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$888 @ 11.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$16.0k @ 74.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 7.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$6.8k @ 40.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$11.0k @ 61.0¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8.7k @ 6.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$24.3k @ 76.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$4.4k @ 10.9¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Lost
Yes$116 @ 11.1¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$6.2k @ 82.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$24.9k @ 22.6¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.8k @ 61.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	Politics	No	$9.1k	8.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Politics	Yes	$8.8k	13.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	Yes	$7.3k	17.3¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6.2k	6.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$4.3k	84.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	Politics	No	$3.9k	54.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	—	No	$3.9k	33.9¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	Politics	Yes	$3.2k	25.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.0k	14.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	Politics	Yes	$2.4k	18.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	—	Yes	$1.8k	91.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	—	Yes	$1.7k	9.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?	—	Yes	$1.5k	13.3¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	—	Yes	$1.2k	13.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	2.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	—	No	$1.1k	40.7¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.1k	7.1¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	—	Yes	$1.0k	18.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$1.0k	24.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	17.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	—	Yes	$1.0k	91.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.0k	51.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$998	25.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$990	55.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$900	0.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Politics	Yes	$851	11.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$789	0.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$720	40.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	—	Yes	$671	5.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	—	Yes	$667	7.0¢

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Politics
No$9.1k @ 8.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
Yes$8.8k @ 13.7¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
Yes$7.3k @ 17.3¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$6.2k @ 6.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$4.3k @ 84.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Politics
No$3.9k @ 54.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?—
No$3.9k @ 33.9¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?Politics
Yes$3.2k @ 25.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.0k @ 14.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Politics
Yes$2.4k @ 18.5¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?—
Yes$1.8k @ 91.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?—
Yes$1.7k @ 9.9¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?—
Yes$1.5k @ 13.3¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?—
Yes$1.2k @ 13.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 2.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?—
No$1.1k @ 40.7¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.1k @ 7.1¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?—
Yes$1.0k @ 18.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
No$1.0k @ 24.8¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 17.4¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?—
Yes$1.0k @ 91.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$1.0k @ 51.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?Politics
No$998 @ 25.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?—
No$990 @ 55.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics
No$900 @ 0.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Politics
Yes$851 @ 11.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
Yes$789 @ 0.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$720 @ 40.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?—
Yes$671 @ 5.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?—
Yes$667 @ 7.0¢