0x8c66…44f3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x8c66e28fbe7ede7f57ba6cbc70408dff442944f3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.5pp

ROI

+32%

Win rate

56% @ 44.4¢

Brier

0.137

Resolved

1592

Avg size

$682

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	43% (21/49)	+39%	49
Other	37% (11/30)	+36%	30
Geopolitics	59% (16/27)	+24%	27

Politics49 bets
Hit rate
43% (21/49)
ROI
+39%
Other30 bets
Hit rate
37% (11/30)
ROI
+36%
Geopolitics27 bets
Hit rate
59% (16/27)
ROI
+24%

Track record

45% hit · 48/106

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$415	44.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$1.3k	12.7¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?	Yes	$1.2k	13.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$3.1k	19.4¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$585	9.0¢	Won
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$7.0k	83.9¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$1.9k	11.6¢	Lost
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$626	33.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$24.0k	15.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$3.6k	53.4¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$96	40.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$840	21.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$946	61.6¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$3.4k	83.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$385	77.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$21	4.8¢	Lost
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	No	$57	78.0¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?	Yes	$1.2k	7.0¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	$4.4k	79.5¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$11.8k	14.2¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$302.9k	70.8¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$31.4k	19.8¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?	Yes	$1.5k	13.3¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$970	80.8¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	$1.5k	76.9¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$2.0k	26.4¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$11.8k	84.0¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$197	43.7¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$2.3k	40.9¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$9.3k	57.3¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$888	11.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$16.0k	74.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$2.4k	7.9¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$6.8k	40.9¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$11.0k	61.0¢	Lost
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8.7k	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$24.3k	76.7¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$4.4k	10.9¢	Lost
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$116	11.1¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	$19	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$6.2k	82.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$24.9k	22.6¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.8k	61.0¢	Lost
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$428	35.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$39.2k	80.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$9.1k	10.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.2k	40.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?	Yes	$540	5.0¢	Lost

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$415 @ 44.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 12.7¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 29?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 13.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$3.1k @ 19.4¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$585 @ 9.0¢
Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$7.0k @ 83.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 11.6¢
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$626 @ 33.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$24.0k @ 15.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$3.6k @ 53.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$96 @ 40.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$840 @ 21.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$946 @ 61.6¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$3.4k @ 83.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$385 @ 77.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$21 @ 4.8¢
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Won
No$57 @ 78.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 7.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Won
No$4.4k @ 79.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$11.8k @ 14.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$302.9k @ 70.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$31.4k @ 19.8¢
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 30?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 13.3¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$970 @ 80.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Won
No$1.5k @ 76.9¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 26.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$11.8k @ 84.0¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$197 @ 43.7¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 40.9¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$9.3k @ 57.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$888 @ 11.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$16.0k @ 74.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 7.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$6.8k @ 40.9¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$11.0k @ 61.0¢
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8.7k @ 6.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$24.3k @ 76.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$4.4k @ 10.9¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Lost
Yes$116 @ 11.1¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$6.2k @ 82.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$24.9k @ 22.6¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.8k @ 61.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$428 @ 35.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$39.2k @ 80.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$9.1k @ 10.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$1.2k @ 40.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Lost
Yes$540 @ 5.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$15.1k	84.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$5.8k	47.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.3k	93.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	17.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.0k	51.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$214	42.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$74	14.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$24	29.5¢

Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$15.1k @ 84.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$5.8k @ 47.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$3.3k @ 93.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 17.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
No$1.0k @ 51.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$214 @ 42.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$74 @ 14.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
No$24 @ 29.5¢