0xbad2…5296

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xbad26fe5458e6219cec3e40272760e275e835296
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

49% @ 45.0¢

Brier

0.209

Resolved

3358

Avg size

$137

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Sports	53% (127/241)	-13%	241
Politics	52% (62/119)	+24%	119
Other	34% (29/86)	-30%	86
Geopolitics	8% (1/12)	-74%	12
Tech	27% (3/11)	-20%	11
Culture	100% (2/2)	+33%	2
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+104%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Sports241 bets
Hit rate
53% (127/241)
ROI
-13%
Politics119 bets
Hit rate
52% (62/119)
ROI
+24%
Other86 bets
Hit rate
34% (29/86)
ROI
-30%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
8% (1/12)
ROI
-74%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
27% (3/11)
ROI
-20%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+33%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+104%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 226/474

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)	Hurricanes	$5	38.0¢	Won
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5	Over	$348	53.8¢	Lost
Hurricanes vs. Flyers	Hurricanes	$396	61.5¢	Won
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)	Rangers	$28	47.0¢	Won
Canucks vs. Rangers	Rangers	$641	70.0¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	No	$1.0k	75.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$105	3.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$337	33.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	No	$511	81.3¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$11	20.0¢	Lost
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Uzbekistan	$878	39.5¢	Lost
Golden Knights vs. Canucks	Golden Knights	$389	69.0¢	Won
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?	No	$134	88.1¢	Won
Senators vs. Red Wings	Red Wings	$1.1k	48.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.7k	74.0¢	Won
Spread: Panthers (-1.5)	Sharks	$147	66.0¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$532	31.7¢	Won
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 5.5	Under	$700	42.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$145	7.0¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?	No	$144	69.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$196	8.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$483	2.2¢	Lost
Flyers vs. Senators	Flyers	$2.0k	39.1¢	Lost
Valorant: Global Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner	Global Esports	$511	46.0¢	Lost
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)	Bears	$578	52.0¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$5.8k	79.8¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$372	33.5¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$873	49.8¢	Won
Blackhawks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5	Under	$404	51.1¢	Lost
Patriots vs. Seahawks	Patriots	$833	75.0¢	Lost
Canadiens vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5	Under	$1.6k	49.3¢	Lost
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	No	$539	75.5¢	Won
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	Yes	$348	21.5¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$913	50.4¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$1.1k	33.7¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$363	72.0¢	Won
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5	Under	$1.6k	47.3¢	Won
Will Paloma Valencia win between 10% and 15% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?	Yes	$31	5.0¢	Lost
Predators vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5	Over	$4	77.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	No	$192	68.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$778	70.0¢	Won
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)	Lightning	$159	37.7¢	Won
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?	Yes	$70	3.3¢	Lost
Games Total: O/U 2.5	Under	$1	45.0¢	Lost
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$2.1k	41.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$381	88.6¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$355	64.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$1.8k	79.7¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?	No	$486	30.2¢	Lost
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C	G2 Esports	$3.9k	42.0¢	Lost

Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Won
Hurricanes$5 @ 38.0¢
Hurricanes vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Lost
Over$348 @ 53.8¢
Hurricanes vs. FlyersWon
Hurricanes$396 @ 61.5¢
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Won
Rangers$28 @ 47.0¢
Canucks vs. RangersWon
Rangers$641 @ 70.0¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Won
No$1.0k @ 75.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 3.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$337 @ 33.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Won
No$511 @ 81.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$11 @ 20.0¢
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Lost
Uzbekistan$878 @ 39.5¢
Golden Knights vs. CanucksWon
Golden Knights$389 @ 69.0¢
Will Team Liquid Win The International 2026?Won
No$134 @ 88.1¢
Senators vs. Red WingsWon
Red Wings$1.1k @ 48.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 74.0¢
Spread: Panthers (-1.5)Won
Sharks$147 @ 66.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$532 @ 31.7¢
Avalanche vs. Flames: O/U 5.5Lost
Under$700 @ 42.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$145 @ 7.0¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%?Won
No$144 @ 69.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$196 @ 8.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$483 @ 2.2¢
Flyers vs. SenatorsLost
Flyers$2.0k @ 39.1¢
Valorant: Global Esports vs Team Vitality - Map 1 WinnerLost
Global Esports$511 @ 46.0¢
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Won
Bears$578 @ 52.0¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$5.8k @ 79.8¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$372 @ 33.5¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$873 @ 49.8¢
Blackhawks vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Lost
Under$404 @ 51.1¢
Patriots vs. SeahawksLost
Patriots$833 @ 75.0¢
Canadiens vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Lost
Under$1.6k @ 49.3¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Won
No$539 @ 75.5¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Lost
Yes$348 @ 21.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$913 @ 50.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 33.7¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$363 @ 72.0¢
Penguins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5Won
Under$1.6k @ 47.3¢
Will Paloma Valencia win between 10% and 15% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?Lost
Yes$31 @ 5.0¢
Predators vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Won
Over$4 @ 77.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Lost
No$192 @ 68.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$778 @ 70.0¢
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Won
Lightning$159 @ 37.7¢
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election?Lost
Yes$70 @ 3.3¢
Games Total: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$1 @ 45.0¢
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 41.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$381 @ 88.6¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$355 @ 64.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$1.8k @ 79.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?Lost
No$486 @ 30.2¢
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group CLost
G2 Esports$3.9k @ 42.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$11.3k	85.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$5.8k	43.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$5.5k	58.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$4.2k	63.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$3.8k	82.7¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$3.7k	52.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$3.4k	79.2¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$3.2k	87.8¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$3.1k	72.5¢
Golden Knights vs. Wild	Sports	Golden Knights	$2.5k	50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$2.5k	73.9¢
Panthers vs. Sabres	Sports	Sabres	$2.4k	49.8¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.2k	90.4¢
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	Culture	No	$2.1k	88.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.1k	77.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	56.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$2.1k	84.9¢
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	2.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$1.7k	90.2¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	61.4¢
Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$1.6k	92.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	40.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	67.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	62.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	62.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	75.2¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$1.3k	96.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$1.3k	63.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	67.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.1k	83.2¢

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$11.3k @ 85.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$5.8k @ 43.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$5.5k @ 58.6¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$4.2k @ 63.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$3.8k @ 82.7¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$3.7k @ 52.1¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Geopolitics
No$3.4k @ 79.2¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$3.2k @ 87.8¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$3.1k @ 72.5¢
Golden Knights vs. WildSports
Golden Knights$2.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$2.5k @ 73.9¢
Panthers vs. SabresSports
Sabres$2.4k @ 49.8¢
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$2.2k @ 90.4¢
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Culture
No$2.1k @ 88.7¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$2.1k @ 77.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 56.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$2.1k @ 84.9¢
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 2.0¢
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$1.7k @ 90.2¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 61.4¢
Will Elon Musk be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$1.6k @ 92.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 40.1¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 67.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 62.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 62.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 75.2¢
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$1.3k @ 96.2¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$1.3k @ 63.5¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 67.3¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$1.1k @ 83.2¢