0x9cdd…3e97

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x9cdda449d7cedf1072d74982a5dc2349df3d3e97
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.9pp

ROI

+23%

Win rate

84% @ 71.3¢

Brier

0.154

Resolved

253

Avg size

$102

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	80% (113/141)	+17%	141
Sports	78% (106/136)	+5%	136
Politics	64% (43/67)	-18%	67
Geopolitics	50% (5/10)	-24%	10
Culture	100% (8/8)	+12%	8

Other141 bets
Hit rate
80% (113/141)
ROI
+17%
Sports136 bets
Hit rate
78% (106/136)
ROI
+5%
Politics67 bets
Hit rate
64% (43/67)
ROI
-18%
Geopolitics10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
-24%
Culture8 bets
Hit rate
100% (8/8)
ROI
+12%

Track record

76% hit · 275/362

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$164	79.1¢	Won
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	19.4¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$453	70.6¢	Won
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$63	77.0¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	$111	14.7¢	Lost
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	Yes	$1.2k	77.5¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 26, 2026?	Yes	$17	60.7¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$54	55.7¢	Won
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	Yes	$723	39.8¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$20	64.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?	Yes	$11	69.9¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by August 31?	No	$534	89.0¢	Won
Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain?	No	$18	87.4¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$78	78.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$2.1k	72.7¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$149	7.3¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Barcelona?	Yes	$270	89.8¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$172	67.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$170	85.0¢	Won
France vs. England: O/U 1.5	Over	$88	87.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$141	81.0¢	Won
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$97	44.4¢	Lost
Portland Fire vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	$72	59.2¢	Lost
Portland Fire vs. Atlanta Dream	Portland Fire	$134	59.2¢	Won
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	Yes	$59	82.0¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?	No	$4	18.0¢	Lost
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$55	75.7¢	Won
Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas Aces	Las Vegas Aces	$26	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$45	89.0¢	Won
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm	Las Vegas Aces	$581	82.3¢	Won
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm	Seattle Storm	$29	2.4¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	Yes	$18	76.0¢	Lost
Broncos vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	$32	62.0¢	Won
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	$177	88.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?	Yes	$119	75.5¢	Won
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	No	$928	84.5¢	Won
Will Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?	Yes	$970	80.9¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$126	87.7¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$25	86.2¢	Lost
Will Travis Kelce retire before next season?	No	$35	88.1¢	Won
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?	No	$156	87.3¢	Won
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$213	80.5¢	Won
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$97	96.9¢	Won
Will Petr Yan fight Henry Cejudo next?	No	$5	96.0¢	Won
Lamar Jackson traded by next season?	No	$136	95.5¢	Won
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	Yes	$14	96.6¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$234	19.5¢	Lost
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?	No	$48	96.3¢	Won
Will the US House pass the Sunshine Protection Act by July 17?	Yes	$38	83.8¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	No	$157	91.0¢	Won

Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$164 @ 79.1¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 19.4¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$453 @ 70.6¢
Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$63 @ 77.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?Lost
Yes$111 @ 14.7¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 77.5¢
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 60.7¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
Yes$54 @ 55.7¢
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
Yes$723 @ 39.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$20 @ 64.0¢
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 69.9¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Won
No$534 @ 89.0¢
Will Bradley Barcola stay at Paris Saint-Germain?Won
No$18 @ 87.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$78 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$2.1k @ 72.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$149 @ 7.3¢
Will Rodri join Barcelona?Won
Yes$270 @ 89.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$172 @ 67.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$170 @ 85.0¢
France vs. England: O/U 1.5Won
Over$88 @ 87.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$141 @ 81.0¢
Will Emiliano Martínez win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$97 @ 44.4¢
Portland Fire vs. Atlanta DreamLost
Atlanta Dream$72 @ 59.2¢
Portland Fire vs. Atlanta DreamWon
Portland Fire$134 @ 59.2¢
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Won
Yes$59 @ 82.0¢
Will Wes Streeting be in the Burnham cabinet?Lost
No$4 @ 18.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$55 @ 75.7¢
Toronto Tempo vs. Las Vegas AcesWon
Las Vegas Aces$26 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$45 @ 89.0¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle StormWon
Las Vegas Aces$581 @ 82.3¢
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle StormLost
Seattle Storm$29 @ 2.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 76.0¢
Broncos vs. ChiefsWon
Chiefs$32 @ 62.0¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
No$177 @ 88.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?Won
Yes$119 @ 75.5¢
Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?Won
No$928 @ 84.5¢
Will Bradley Barcola join Liverpool?Won
Yes$970 @ 80.9¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$126 @ 87.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$25 @ 86.2¢
Will Travis Kelce retire before next season?Won
No$35 @ 88.1¢
Will Aaron Rodgers retire before next season?Won
No$156 @ 87.3¢
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$213 @ 80.5¢
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$97 @ 96.9¢
Will Petr Yan fight Henry Cejudo next?Won
No$5 @ 96.0¢
Lamar Jackson traded by next season?Won
No$136 @ 95.5¢
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Won
Yes$14 @ 96.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$234 @ 19.5¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?Won
No$48 @ 96.3¢
Will the US House pass the Sunshine Protection Act by July 17?Won
Yes$38 @ 83.8¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?Won
No$157 @ 91.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	68.4¢
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	Sports	Yes	$2.0k	69.3¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.1k	66.8¢
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Sports	Yes	$863	66.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$737	86.7¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$717	91.5¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$672	6.2¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$666	62.7¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$561	38.9¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	No	$492	77.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$487	5.7¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$412	29.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$401	60.7¢
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Sports	Yes	$352	61.1¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?	Politics	No	$338	86.7¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$325	57.6¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Sports	Yes	$317	55.3¢
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?	Culture	No	$314	31.7¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$312	80.7¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$306	14.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$305	33.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Politics	No	$299	85.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$289	49.9¢
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?	Culture	Yes	$248	36.1¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$217	3.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$215	50.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$200	78.0¢
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	Sports	No	$199	82.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$199	73.9¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$197	66.5¢

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 68.4¢
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?Sports
Yes$2.0k @ 69.3¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$1.1k @ 66.8¢
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?Sports
Yes$863 @ 66.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$737 @ 86.7¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$717 @ 91.5¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$672 @ 6.2¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$666 @ 62.7¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$561 @ 38.9¢
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
No$492 @ 77.1¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$487 @ 5.7¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$412 @ 29.3¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$401 @ 60.7¢
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Sports
Yes$352 @ 61.1¢
Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics
No$338 @ 86.7¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$325 @ 57.6¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Sports
Yes$317 @ 55.3¢
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?Culture
No$314 @ 31.7¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$312 @ 80.7¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$306 @ 14.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$305 @ 33.0¢
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
No$299 @ 85.6¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$289 @ 49.9¢
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?Culture
Yes$248 @ 36.1¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$217 @ 3.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$215 @ 50.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$200 @ 78.0¢
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?Sports
No$199 @ 82.0¢
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?Politics
Yes$199 @ 73.9¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics
Yes$197 @ 66.5¢