0x3ad1…b4c5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3ad146a7dae2dbab2281c7e351bedce11748b4c5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-16.9pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

40% @ 57.0¢

Brier

0.265

Resolved

1023

Avg size

$34

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (81/146)	-6%	146
Politics	26% (5/19)	-68%	19
Science	38% (3/8)	-39%	8
Sports	75% (3/4)	+72%	4
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+42%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+37%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other146 bets
Hit rate
55% (81/146)
ROI
-6%
Politics19 bets
Hit rate
26% (5/19)
ROI
-68%
Science8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-39%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+72%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+42%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+37%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

52% hit · 94/182

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins	1WIN	$50	36.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 21?	No	$27	3.1¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 25?	Yes	$115	83.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$447	89.0¢	Won
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies	San Diego Padres	$6	80.4¢	Won
LoL: GIANTX vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	GIANTX	$9	62.0¢	Won
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)	San Francisco Giants	$29	50.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?	Yes	$1	5.2¢	Lost
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees	New York Yankees	$11	53.0¢	Lost
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$17	81.9¢	Won
Will LASK Linz win on 2026-08-25?	No	$771	50.2¢	Lost
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?	Yes	$173	27.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or below on September 14?	No	$101	85.0¢	Won
Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream	Atlanta Dream	$3	56.0¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$54	16.6¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$6	13.4¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	Yes	$25	39.4¢	Lost
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?	M	$19	32.0¢	Won
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Invictus Gaming	$53	73.1¢	Won
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winner	JD Gaming	$35	70.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 22?	No	$13	62.0¢	Lost
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Playoffs	Leviatán Esports	$17	67.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	No	$11	64.4¢	Lost
Cordenons: Hugo Dellien vs Ioannis Xilas	Ioannis Xilas	$1	16.7¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in August?	No	$4	74.7¢	Won
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx	Golden State Valkyries	$396	39.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 11?	No	$23	76.6¢	Won
ITF W35 Vigo Women: Sofia Costoulas vs Matilde Jorge	Sofia Costoulas	$1	80.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?	No	$29	45.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 14?	Yes	$1	4.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs	Legacy	$87	32.5¢	Won
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Anyones Legend	$74	78.8¢	Won
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Invictus Gaming	$42	53.7¢	Lost
ITF W35 Krakow Women: Beatrice Stagno vs Ingrid Vojcinakova	Ingrid Vojcinakova	$148	76.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 18?	No	$6	63.0¢	Won
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics	Athletics	$3	59.0¢	Lost
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Invictus Gaming	$273	68.5¢	Lost
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Top Esports	$218	66.5¢	Won
Will "Mutiny" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	$4	24.6¢	Lost
US Open, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Tristan Schoolkate	Liam Draxl	$9	69.6¢	Lost
US Open, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Tristan Schoolkate	Tristan Schoolkate	$5	31.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 12?	Yes	$2	7.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 22?	Yes	$14	15.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$2	39.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$25	75.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$7	68.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A	Astralis	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?	Yes	$21	20.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$43	34.0¢	Won

Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-InsWon
1WIN$50 @ 36.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on August 21?Won
No$27 @ 3.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 25?Lost
Yes$115 @ 83.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$447 @ 89.0¢
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado RockiesWon
San Diego Padres$6 @ 80.4¢
LoL: GIANTX vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonWon
GIANTX$9 @ 62.0¢
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Won
San Francisco Giants$29 @ 50.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.2¢
Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesLost
New York Yankees$11 @ 53.0¢
Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$17 @ 81.9¢
Will LASK Linz win on 2026-08-25?Lost
No$771 @ 50.2¢
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 8th Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?Won
Yes$173 @ 27.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C or below on September 14?Won
No$101 @ 85.0¢
Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta DreamWon
Atlanta Dream$3 @ 56.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$54 @ 16.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$6 @ 13.4¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Lost
Yes$25 @ 39.4¢
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?Won
M$19 @ 32.0¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerWon
Invictus Gaming$53 @ 73.1¢
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerLost
JD Gaming$35 @ 70.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on September 22?Lost
No$13 @ 62.0¢
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 PlayoffsLost
Leviatán Esports$17 @ 67.0¢
Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Lost
No$11 @ 64.4¢
Cordenons: Hugo Dellien vs Ioannis XilasLost
Ioannis Xilas$1 @ 16.7¢
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in August?Won
No$4 @ 74.7¢
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota LynxWon
Golden State Valkyries$396 @ 39.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 11?Won
No$23 @ 76.6¢
ITF W35 Vigo Women: Sofia Costoulas vs Matilde JorgeLost
Sofia Costoulas$1 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 21?Won
No$29 @ 45.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 14?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsWon
Legacy$87 @ 32.5¢
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 WinnerWon
Anyones Legend$74 @ 78.8¢
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLost
Invictus Gaming$42 @ 53.7¢
ITF W35 Krakow Women: Beatrice Stagno vs Ingrid VojcinakovaWon
Ingrid Vojcinakova$148 @ 76.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 18?Won
No$6 @ 63.0¢
Baltimore Orioles vs. AthleticsLost
Athletics$3 @ 59.0¢
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 WinnerLost
Invictus Gaming$273 @ 68.5¢
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 WinnerWon
Top Esports$218 @ 66.5¢
Will "Mutiny" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Lost
No$4 @ 24.6¢
US Open, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Tristan SchoolkateLost
Liam Draxl$9 @ 69.6¢
US Open, Qualification ATP: Liam Draxl vs Tristan SchoolkateWon
Tristan Schoolkate$5 @ 31.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on September 12?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$14 @ 15.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$2 @ 39.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$25 @ 75.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 68.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group ALost
Astralis$2 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$21 @ 20.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$43 @ 34.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$646	89.1¢
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$493	87.0¢
Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$464	70.3¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30?	Culture	No	$414	98.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$347	38.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$265	83.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?	Politics	No	$191	91.0¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	Culture	Yes	$157	39.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Other	No	$150	95.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?	Crypto	No	$134	86.2¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$134	49.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$131	48.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$124	93.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$108	89.8¢
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$100	76.5¢
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$92	76.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of September 21 2026?	Other	No	$91	98.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$81	84.0¢
Will Solana reach $120 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$71	45.5¢
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$69	91.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$69	28.7¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $760 in September?	Business	No	$62	83.3¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$50	84.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in September?	Business	No	$50	82.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?	Crypto	No	$50	79.2¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the top album for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$49	10.8¢
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$43	81.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	No	$41	23.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $800 in September?	Business	No	$39	84.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?	Crypto	No	$36	85.9¢

Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$646 @ 89.1¢
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$493 @ 87.0¢
Will Solana dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$464 @ 70.3¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30?Culture
No$414 @ 98.8¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?Culture
Yes$347 @ 38.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$265 @ 83.0¢
Iran leadership change by November 30?Politics
No$191 @ 91.0¢
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?Culture
Yes$157 @ 39.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Other
No$150 @ 95.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?Crypto
No$134 @ 86.2¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?Culture
Yes$134 @ 49.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$131 @ 48.5¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$124 @ 93.0¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$108 @ 89.8¢
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$100 @ 76.5¢
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$92 @ 76.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of September 21 2026?Other
No$91 @ 98.0¢
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
No$81 @ 84.0¢
Will Solana reach $120 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$71 @ 45.5¢
Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Culture
Yes$69 @ 91.0¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$69 @ 28.7¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $760 in September?Business
No$62 @ 83.3¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$50 @ 84.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in September?Business
No$50 @ 82.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September?Crypto
No$50 @ 79.2¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the top album for 2026?Culture
Yes$49 @ 10.8¢
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$43 @ 81.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
No$41 @ 23.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $800 in September?Business
No$39 @ 84.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in September?Crypto
No$36 @ 85.9¢