← Smart money
0xba62…58e9
SharpEdge
+6.5pp
ROI
+9%
Win rate
81% @ 74.1¢
Brier
0.054
Resolved
351
Avg size
$11
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 100% (4/4) | +21% | 4 |
| Other | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (4/4)
- ROI
- +21%
- Other1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
80% hit · 4/5| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | No | $444 | 89.0¢ | Won |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | $981 | 82.1¢ | Won |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | $1.7k | 85.4¢ | Won |
| Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? | No | $535 | 73.1¢ | Won |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | No | $377 | 37.4¢ | Lost |
- No$444 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$981 @ 82.1¢
- No$1.7k @ 85.4¢
- No$535 @ 73.1¢
- No$377 @ 37.4¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$5.0k @ 89.3¢
- No$5.0k @ 95.2¢
- No$5.0k @ 91.2¢
- No$4.6k @ 58.6¢
- No$3.8k @ 97.9¢
- No$3.8k @ 96.2¢
- No$3.2k @ 94.2¢
- No$3.2k @ 93.2¢
- No$3.2k @ 92.6¢
- No$2.2k @ 95.6¢
- No$2.2k @ 94.1¢
- Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?GeopoliticsNo$2.1k @ 98.9¢
- No$2.1k @ 84.1¢
- No$1.8k @ 77.5¢
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$1.8k @ 93.0¢
- No$1.7k @ 91.6¢
- No$1.7k @ 98.1¢
- No$1.7k @ 97.4¢
- No$1.4k @ 95.8¢
- No$1.3k @ 85.1¢
- No$1.3k @ 61.6¢
- No$1.3k @ 66.8¢
- No$1.2k @ 96.6¢
- No$1.0k @ 90.2¢
- No$1.0k @ 93.6¢
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?PoliticsNo$974 @ 96.1¢
- No$971 @ 69.0¢
- No$796 @ 93.6¢
- No$756 @ 94.5¢
- New pandemic in 2026?GeopoliticsNo$721 @ 89.3¢