0x3825…04e8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3825180182703613f3619d4611890c5b655504e8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.2pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

61% @ 53.2¢

Brier

0.160

Resolved

3127

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	60% (43/72)	+14%	72
Other	65% (32/49)	+9%	49
Geopolitics	64% (7/11)	+7%	11
Tech	50% (5/10)	-1%	10
Economy	57% (4/7)	+35%	7
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics72 bets
Hit rate
60% (43/72)
ROI
+14%
Other49 bets
Hit rate
65% (32/49)
ROI
+9%
Geopolitics11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+7%
Tech10 bets
Hit rate
50% (5/10)
ROI
-1%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
+35%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

61% hit · 91/150

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	Yes	$93	87.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	No	$463	79.2¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$249	68.3¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$30	30.0¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$19	12.7¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$68	84.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	Yes	$233	58.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	$25	15.5¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$12	29.5¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	$317	80.8¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$10	24.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$344	84.0¢	Lost
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	$61	61.5¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$167	24.3¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	No	$11	17.7¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	No	$249	87.5¢	Lost
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?	No	$7	12.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$224	86.3¢	Won
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	$45	89.4¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$35	30.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	$4	15.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?	No	$155	44.3¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	$93	58.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	$38	74.2¢	Lost
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?	Yes	$365	65.5¢	Won
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	Yes	$5	87.5¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	75.6¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	$23	56.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	No	$153	85.1¢	Won
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	$43	54.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$924	80.8¢	Won
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?	No	$80	45.4¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	$94	89.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	$89	23.4¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	No	$23	9.8¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$173	83.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026	No	$85	80.4¢	Lost
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	$118	42.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	No	$49	81.7¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$288	23.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$208	70.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?	Yes	$340	73.5¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$120	35.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$577	80.8¢	Won
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$26	32.3¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$29	40.6¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	$338	73.2¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	$402	87.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$93	35.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	$32	64.1¢	Won

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Won
Yes$93 @ 87.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?Won
No$463 @ 79.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$249 @ 68.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$30 @ 30.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$19 @ 12.7¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$68 @ 84.7¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Lost
Yes$233 @ 58.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 15.5¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$12 @ 29.5¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Won
No$317 @ 80.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 24.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$344 @ 84.0¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
No$61 @ 61.5¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$167 @ 24.3¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Lost
No$11 @ 17.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$249 @ 87.5¢
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?Lost
No$7 @ 12.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$224 @ 86.3¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Won
No$45 @ 89.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$35 @ 30.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Lost
No$4 @ 15.0¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 45 and 50 million views in week 1?Lost
No$155 @ 44.3¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Won
No$93 @ 58.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Lost
No$38 @ 74.2¢
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
Yes$365 @ 65.5¢
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 87.5¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 75.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?Won
No$23 @ 56.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?Won
No$153 @ 85.1¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Won
No$43 @ 54.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$924 @ 80.8¢
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?Won
No$80 @ 45.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Won
Yes$94 @ 89.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Lost
Yes$89 @ 23.4¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?Lost
No$23 @ 9.8¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$173 @ 83.0¢
Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026Lost
No$85 @ 80.4¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Lost
Yes$118 @ 42.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Lost
No$49 @ 81.7¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$288 @ 23.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$208 @ 70.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$340 @ 73.5¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$120 @ 35.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$577 @ 80.8¢
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$26 @ 32.3¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$29 @ 40.6¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
No$338 @ 73.2¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Won
No$402 @ 87.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$93 @ 35.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Won
Yes$32 @ 64.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$6.4k	67.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.0k	87.0¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$2.0k	87.0¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$2.0k	93.1¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$2.0k	96.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$2.0k	98.4¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$2.0k	97.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$2.0k	98.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.9k	77.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.7k	98.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	97.4¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	87.8¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.5k	87.7¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$1.5k	86.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.5k	97.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.5k	76.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$1.5k	98.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$1.4k	99.1¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.4k	90.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	87.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	62.4¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.0k	98.1¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.0k	96.0¢
Trump out as President by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.0k	99.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1000	93.6¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1000	95.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1000	58.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$977	99.3¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	No	$936	93.6¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	No	$934	81.1¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$6.4k @ 67.6¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
No$2.0k @ 87.0¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$2.0k @ 87.0¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$2.0k @ 93.1¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$2.0k @ 96.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$2.0k @ 98.4¢
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$2.0k @ 97.5¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$2.0k @ 98.0¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1.9k @ 77.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$1.7k @ 98.0¢
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 97.4¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 87.8¢
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Geopolitics
No$1.5k @ 87.7¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
No$1.5k @ 86.5¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
No$1.5k @ 97.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1.5k @ 76.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
No$1.5k @ 98.9¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$1.4k @ 99.1¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$1.4k @ 90.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 87.5¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 62.4¢
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1.0k @ 98.1¢
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?Politics
No$1.0k @ 96.0¢
Trump out as President by September 30?Politics
No$1.0k @ 99.3¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1000 @ 93.6¢
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1000 @ 95.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1000 @ 58.7¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$977 @ 99.3¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
No$936 @ 93.6¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
No$934 @ 81.1¢