0x3825…04e8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x3825180182703613f3619d4611890c5b655504e8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

59% @ 52.3¢

Brier

0.173

Resolved

3291

Avg size

$12

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	53% (202/382)	-8%	382
Other	28% (39/138)	-62%	138
Geopolitics	56% (22/39)	-6%	39
Tech	52% (14/27)	-2%	27
Economy	40% (6/15)	-5%	15
Culture	79% (11/14)	+59%	14
Science	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Business	50% (2/4)	-12%	4
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics382 bets
Hit rate
53% (202/382)
ROI
-8%
Other138 bets
Hit rate
28% (39/138)
ROI
-62%
Geopolitics39 bets
Hit rate
56% (22/39)
ROI
-6%
Tech27 bets
Hit rate
52% (14/27)
ROI
-2%
Economy15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
-5%
Culture14 bets
Hit rate
79% (11/14)
ROI
+59%
Science4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Business4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-12%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

47% hit · 296/624

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?	Yes	$164	40.9¢	Won
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	$27	13.7¢	Lost
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	Yes	$243	60.7¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?	No	$638	96.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	$514	84.5¢	Lost
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	No	$3	14.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in November?	Yes	$115	77.0¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	$128	72.2¢	Won
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m?	No	$21	42.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	$81	36.2¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	No	$220	88.2¢	Lost
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	$19	77.8¢	Won
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	$83	33.4¢	Won
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	$78	78.0¢	Lost
Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	$50	99.5¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	$128	16.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	$251	90.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	$34	17.2¢	Lost
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?	Yes	$47	31.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?	No	$137	32.5¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	No	$168	69.9¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	Yes	$36	12.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Lost
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	$20	20.4¢	Won
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026?	No	$104	18.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	$119	39.7¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	Yes	$333	29.0¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	$212	16.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$158	61.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	$142	94.9¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7?	Yes	$8	45.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?	No	$31	39.0¢	Lost
Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	No	$218	71.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	No	$53	23.7¢	Lost
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?	Yes	$4	22.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?	Yes	$19	23.7¢	Lost
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	$448	70.2¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?	No	$24	17.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	$354	73.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?	Yes	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?	No	$19	94.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Yes	$12	15.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	No	$10	12.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	$266	71.3¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$53	33.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	No	$89	37.2¢	Lost
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?	No	$12	20.7¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Yes	$17	8.1¢	Lost
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	No	$87	72.2¢	Lost

Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 2:59 PM ET?Won
Yes$164 @ 40.9¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?Lost
Yes$27 @ 13.7¢
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?Lost
Yes$243 @ 60.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?Won
No$638 @ 96.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Lost
No$514 @ 84.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 14.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in November?Won
Yes$115 @ 77.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Won
No$128 @ 72.2¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 9m?Won
No$21 @ 42.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Won
No$81 @ 36.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Lost
No$220 @ 88.2¢
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?Won
Yes$19 @ 77.8¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Won
No$83 @ 33.4¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Lost
No$78 @ 78.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Won
No$50 @ 99.5¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Lost
Yes$128 @ 16.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Won
No$251 @ 90.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?Lost
No$34 @ 17.2¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$47 @ 31.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?Lost
No$137 @ 32.5¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$168 @ 69.9¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Lost
Yes$36 @ 12.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 20.4¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 25, 2026?Lost
No$104 @ 18.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?Lost
No$119 @ 39.7¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?Lost
Yes$333 @ 29.0¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$212 @ 16.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$158 @ 61.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Won
Yes$142 @ 94.9¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 7?Lost
Yes$8 @ 45.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Lost
No$31 @ 39.0¢
Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Lost
No$218 @ 71.0¢
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?Lost
No$53 @ 23.7¢
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%?Lost
Yes$4 @ 22.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Lost
Yes$19 @ 23.7¢
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?Lost
No$448 @ 70.2¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 17.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Lost
No$354 @ 73.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 94.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 15.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 12.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?Lost
No$266 @ 71.3¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$53 @ 33.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?Lost
No$89 @ 37.2¢
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?Lost
No$12 @ 20.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?Lost
Yes$17 @ 8.1¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?Lost
No$87 @ 72.2¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$6.4k	67.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?	—	No	$3.3k	98.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?	Politics	No	$2.0k	72.9¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	No	$2.0k	77.5¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$2.0k	93.1¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$2.0k	96.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$2.0k	77.4¢
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.9k	84.9¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Politics	No	$1.8k	92.1¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	98.6¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.7k	62.9¢
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?	Politics	No	$1.6k	97.0¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$1.6k	95.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	87.8¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$1.5k	86.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.4k	90.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?	Politics	No	$1.3k	89.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$1.3k	98.4¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	No	$1.2k	87.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$1.2k	69.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$1.2k	82.1¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.2k	85.8¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$1.1k	82.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$1.1k	69.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$1.1k	94.0¢
Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$1.0k	97.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1000	58.7¢
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31?	—	No	$902	42.2¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Politics	No	$874	74.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 46 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	No	$869	98.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$6.4k @ 67.6¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?—
No$3.3k @ 98.1¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Politics
No$2.0k @ 72.9¢
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
No$2.0k @ 77.5¢
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$2.0k @ 93.1¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$2.0k @ 96.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$2.0k @ 77.4¢
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?—
Yes$1.9k @ 84.9¢
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
No$1.8k @ 92.1¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 98.6¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$1.7k @ 62.9¢
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Politics
No$1.6k @ 97.0¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?Science
No$1.6k @ 95.7¢
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 87.8¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
No$1.5k @ 86.5¢
Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics
No$1.4k @ 90.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?Politics
No$1.3k @ 89.8¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
No$1.3k @ 98.4¢
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
No$1.2k @ 87.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$1.2k @ 69.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
No$1.2k @ 82.1¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.2k @ 85.8¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$1.1k @ 82.4¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$1.1k @ 69.0¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 45 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$1.1k @ 94.0¢
Will Teddy Riner win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$1.0k @ 97.3¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1000 @ 58.7¢
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31?—
No$902 @ 42.2¢
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics
No$874 @ 74.8¢
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 46 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
No$869 @ 98.0¢