0xfb59…83f9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xfb593511b24df1edff63c35de81c72d5733683f9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.5pp

ROI

+39%

Win rate

40% @ 36.9¢

Brier

0.154

Resolved

1692

Avg size

$158

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	52% (25/48)	+26%	48
Other	49% (19/39)	+71%	39
Geopolitics	58% (11/19)	+72%	19
Economy	60% (3/5)	+43%	5
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics48 bets
Hit rate
52% (25/48)
ROI
+26%
Other39 bets
Hit rate
49% (19/39)
ROI
+71%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
58% (11/19)
ROI
+72%
Economy5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+43%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

52% hit · 58/112

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$77	7.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$80	16.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$8.6k	80.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$6.7k	67.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$13.5k	18.2¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$50	8.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$4.3k	57.4¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$1.0k	28.0¢	Won
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	NRG	$122	61.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$3.6k	66.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$374	77.6¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	Yes	$16	4.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$120	51.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$1.2k	73.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$2.7k	77.2¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$7.0k	73.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?	Yes	$164	10.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	$348	19.7¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$310	3.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	$103	80.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$6.2k	68.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$3.7k	57.8¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	$12.9k	32.5¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$3.7k	74.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$368	17.1¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	$890	44.5¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$420	42.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	$196	6.5¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$626	4.4¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$421	84.1¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	Yes	$252	5.4¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	No	$1.0k	82.3¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?	Yes	$25	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	$140	70.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	$1.2k	19.5¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$1.5k	75.0¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$1.1k	26.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$1.2k	60.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$223	7.2¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	No	$702	63.6¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?	Yes	$134	24.2¢	Lost
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	$172	41.0¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$1.4k	77.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	$312	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	42.9¢	Won
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$458	75.0¢	Won
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	$356	48.2¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$150	15.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$3.3k	45.4¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$203	28.0¢	Lost

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$77 @ 7.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$80 @ 16.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$8.6k @ 80.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$6.7k @ 67.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13.5k @ 18.2¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 8.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$4.3k @ 57.4¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 28.0¢
Valorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group OmegaWon
NRG$122 @ 61.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$3.6k @ 66.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$374 @ 77.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 4.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$120 @ 51.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$1.2k @ 73.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$2.7k @ 77.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$7.0k @ 73.5¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Lost
Yes$164 @ 10.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?Lost
Yes$348 @ 19.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$310 @ 3.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Won
No$103 @ 80.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$6.2k @ 68.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 57.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Won
No$12.9k @ 32.5¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 74.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$368 @ 17.1¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
Yes$890 @ 44.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$420 @ 42.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$196 @ 6.5¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$626 @ 4.4¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$421 @ 84.1¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
Yes$252 @ 5.4¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Won
No$1.0k @ 82.3¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Lost
Yes$25 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
No$140 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 19.5¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$1.5k @ 75.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 26.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 60.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$223 @ 7.2¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Won
No$702 @ 63.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Lost
Yes$134 @ 24.2¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Won
No$172 @ 41.0¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 77.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
Yes$312 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 42.9¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$458 @ 75.0¢
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Won
Yes$356 @ 48.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$150 @ 15.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$3.3k @ 45.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$203 @ 28.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$42.5k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$42.5k	50.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7.3k	83.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$6.6k	83.4¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$4.3k	87.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$3.5k	86.8¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	87.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	No	$1.6k	92.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$1.6k	77.5¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$1.1k	90.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$600	12.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$600	60.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$473	77.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$369	64.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$343	34.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$322	46.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	Yes	$319	12.6¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$188	69.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$134	61.0¢
Spread: Florida (-3.5)	Sports	Florida	$102	51.0¢
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)	Sports	Vikings	$98	49.0¢
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)	Sports	Eagles	$15	47.0¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$42.5k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$42.5k @ 50.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$7.3k @ 83.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$6.6k @ 83.4¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$4.3k @ 87.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$3.5k @ 86.8¢
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 87.0¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
No$1.6k @ 92.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$1.6k @ 77.5¢
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$1.1k @ 90.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$600 @ 12.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$600 @ 60.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$473 @ 77.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$369 @ 64.6¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$343 @ 34.0¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$322 @ 46.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
Yes$319 @ 12.6¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$188 @ 69.8¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$134 @ 61.0¢
Spread: Florida (-3.5)Sports
Florida$102 @ 51.0¢
Spread: Vikings (-1.5)Sports
Vikings$98 @ 49.0¢
Spread: Eagles (-3.5)Sports
Eagles$15 @ 47.0¢