0xe533…ab29

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0xe53312c6c15af508e0c31e2cfadbefddd399ab29
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

-20.9pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

29% @ 50.4¢

Brier

0.293

Resolved

278

Avg size

$80

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	61% (25/41)	+14%	41
Politics	67% (6/9)	-0%	9
Sports	38% (3/8)	-12%	8
Economy	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Tech	100% (3/3)	+30%	3

Other41 bets
Hit rate
61% (25/41)
ROI
+14%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
-0%
Sports8 bets
Hit rate
38% (3/8)
ROI
-12%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+30%

Track record

57% hit · 37/65

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$160	16.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.3k	75.1¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$371	74.2¢	Won
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	$1.3k	43.0¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	No	$1.6k	52.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$1.3k	89.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$2.2k	55.5¢	Lost
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals	Yes	$71	2.4¢	Lost
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$2.1k	51.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?	No	$795	79.5¢	Lost
Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.2k	17.8¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	No	$2.0k	78.8¢	Lost
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	No	$772	49.6¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	$137	25.0¢	Lost
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	No	$1.8k	45.5¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	No	$55	13.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$990	49.5¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$175	17.5¢	Lost
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5	Over	$417	34.7¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$130	6.5¢	Lost
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5	Over	$375	50.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Yes	$42	4.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$195	39.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?	Yes	$3.3k	77.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	Yes	$129	6.5¢	Lost
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?	Yes	$735	73.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	$109	43.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$700	46.7¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$415	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$805	23.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	No	$360	24.0¢	Lost
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$1.6k	79.5¢	Won
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?	No	$660	66.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.1k	55.5¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?	Yes	$6.5k	64.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	No	$385	77.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?	Yes	$2.3k	66.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	$1.3k	86.3¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$730	73.0¢	Won
Will Aston Villa qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	$5	78.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$1.2k	61.3¢	Won
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5	Over	$452	47.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$800	80.0¢	Won
ECB rate hike in 2026?	No	$1.4k	45.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ?	Yes	$825	79.0¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$590	73.8¢	Won
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	No	$445	89.0¢	Won
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5	Over	$100	10.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$760	76.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	$850	85.0¢	Won

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$160 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.3k @ 75.1¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$371 @ 74.2¢
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 43.0¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Won
No$1.6k @ 52.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$1.3k @ 89.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$2.2k @ 55.5¢
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goalsLost
Yes$71 @ 2.4¢
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 51.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?Lost
No$795 @ 79.5¢
Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 17.8¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?Lost
No$2.0k @ 78.8¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$772 @ 49.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Lost
Yes$137 @ 25.0¢
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?Lost
No$1.8k @ 45.5¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?Lost
No$55 @ 13.0¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$990 @ 49.5¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$175 @ 17.5¢
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$417 @ 34.7¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$130 @ 6.5¢
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5Won
Over$375 @ 50.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Lost
Yes$42 @ 4.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$195 @ 39.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?Won
Yes$3.3k @ 77.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Lost
Yes$129 @ 6.5¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May?Won
Yes$735 @ 73.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Won
No$109 @ 43.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$700 @ 46.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$415 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$805 @ 23.0¢
Will Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?Lost
No$360 @ 24.0¢
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$1.6k @ 79.5¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?Won
No$660 @ 66.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 55.5¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?Lost
Yes$6.5k @ 64.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?Won
No$385 @ 77.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 66.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Won
No$1.3k @ 86.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$730 @ 73.0¢
Will Aston Villa qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?Won
Yes$5 @ 78.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 61.3¢
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Lost
Over$452 @ 47.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$800 @ 80.0¢
ECB rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$1.4k @ 45.5¢
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ?Won
Yes$825 @ 79.0¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$590 @ 73.8¢
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Won
No$445 @ 89.0¢
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Lost
Over$100 @ 10.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$760 @ 76.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
No$850 @ 85.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$26.8k	85.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$5.5k	84.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Economy	No	$5.4k	63.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Economy	No	$5.0k	83.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$4.7k	65.9¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$3.1k	98.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.9k	96.8¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Economy	No	$2.2k	54.2¢
US recession by end of 2026?	Economy	No	$1.8k	73.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	79.5¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$1.2k	58.4¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.0k	70.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	No	$990	66.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$935	96.4¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	—	No	$920	23.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$670	67.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?	—	No	$544	68.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?	—	Yes	$326	60.0¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$194	82.3¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$34	10.0¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$26.8k @ 85.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics
No$5.5k @ 84.3¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Economy
No$5.4k @ 63.6¢
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?Economy
No$5.0k @ 83.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$4.7k @ 65.9¢
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$3.1k @ 98.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Geopolitics
No$2.9k @ 96.8¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Economy
No$2.2k @ 54.2¢
US recession by end of 2026?Economy
No$1.8k @ 73.4¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 79.5¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$1.2k @ 58.4¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$1.0k @ 70.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
No$990 @ 66.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$935 @ 96.4¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?—
No$920 @ 23.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?—
Yes$670 @ 67.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?—
No$544 @ 68.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?—
Yes$326 @ 60.0¢
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?Politics
Yes$194 @ 82.3¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$34 @ 10.0¢