0x6139…6b7a

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics62 bets

  Hit rate

  29% (18/62)

  ROI

  -28%

• Other33 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (18/33)

  ROI

  -30%

• Geopolitics18 bets

  Hit rate

  11% (2/18)

  ROI

  -81%

• Sports4 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (2/4)

  ROI

  +124%

• Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
  Yes$7.1k @ 22.4¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
  No$670 @ 88.6¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$3.0k @ 60.1¢
• Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?Lost
  Yes$69 @ 5.5¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$33 @ 6.6¢
• Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
  No$4.0k @ 67.2¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$2.1k @ 86.0¢
• Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
  Yes$136 @ 11.5¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
  No$325 @ 21.7¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 31?Won
  No$178 @ 83.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
  Yes$3.4k @ 4.6¢
• Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  No$1.3k @ 32.0¢
• Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
  No$2.4k @ 70.0¢
• Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$745 @ 9.3¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$347 @ 12.6¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
  No$795 @ 10.6¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
  Yes$4.3k @ 36.2¢
• Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?Won
  Yes$915 @ 36.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$4.2k @ 48.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3.6k @ 16.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
  Yes$125 @ 2.5¢
• Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$16.9k @ 21.2¢
• Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?Won
  No$85 @ 85.0¢
• Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Lost
  Yes$2.0k @ 5.4¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
  No$875 @ 43.7¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Lost
  Yes$1.2k @ 16.7¢
• Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
  No$3.3k @ 61.3¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  No$163 @ 65.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Lost
  Yes$4.4k @ 11.1¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Lost
  No$755 @ 16.8¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Won
  Yes$848 @ 14.9¢
• Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$8.2k @ 1.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.0k @ 24.8¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Lost
  Yes$32.7k @ 13.5¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Won
  Yes$2.7k @ 64.6¢
• Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$28 @ 7.3¢
• US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?Won
  No$210 @ 84.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.3k @ 10.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?Lost
  No$179 @ 5.2¢
• Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$2.8k @ 3.7¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?Won
  Yes$541 @ 67.6¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Lost
  No$143 @ 12.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Won
  Yes$1.1k @ 66.6¢
• Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
  No$5.1k @ 84.6¢
• Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
  Yes$31.9k @ 30.9¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$10.2k @ 58.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$400 @ 11.4¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$1.5k @ 75.1¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$436 @ 0.8¢
• Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Won
  No$305 @ 61.0¢

Current positions

• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$61.9k @ 29.8¢
• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$35.0k @ 50.0¢
• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  No$35.0k @ 50.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  Yes$28.5k @ 20.1¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$25.8k @ 35.7¢
• Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$15.6k @ 24.2¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
  Yes$14.6k @ 6.4¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  No$13.3k @ 50.6¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
  Yes$11.6k @ 10.9¢
• Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$11.3k @ 5.8¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$9.7k @ 45.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
  Yes$9.7k @ 11.5¢
• Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$9.6k @ 21.8¢
• Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$9.5k @ 46.0¢
• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
  No$9.1k @ 91.0¢
• Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$7.0k @ 0.9¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$6.1k @ 34.4¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$5.6k @ 24.8¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  Yes$5.4k @ 16.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
  Yes$5.0k @ 13.9¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$5.0k @ 37.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
  Yes$4.4k @ 8.7¢
• Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
  Yes$4.0k @ 12.3¢
• Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$3.9k @ 6.2¢
• US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Politics
  No$3.5k @ 71.2¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$3.2k @ 64.8¢
• Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$3.2k @ 11.7¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.7k @ 15.1¢
• Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 29.3¢
• IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 65.3¢